Thought exercise: Sanders wins pledged delegate race, Hillary popular vote...

[morningfog]

Purely a thought exercise on process and procedure. Where do think it would or should come down if Sanders wins the pledged delegate race but Hillary takes the popular vote?

It is possible (albeit unlikely) that Bernie surpasses Hillary in the pledged delegate race. Suppose he continues to chip away at her lead, ties and then moves ahead with a strong showing on June 7. For purposes of this exercise, just proceed on that assumption. Say the voting ends with Sanders winning the pledged delegate majority by 20-50.

At the same time Hillary retains her popular vote lead by a lot, by over a million votes.

At the close of voting under this scenario, Bernie would have some 2,070 pledged delegates,a majority. Hillary would have 1,981 pledged delegates.

How would the first round vote go? How should it go? And why?

It would take super delegates to get either to the necessary 2,383. Should the supers follow the pledged delegate leader? The popular vote leader? The one who performed the best in swing states or who could put the most states in play? Personal preference?

And what would be the effect on the Democratic electorate under a given scenario?

[JonLeibowitz]

1. Hillary would be the Democratic nominee.

The system is corrupt.

That is all.

[djean111]

2. Aren't the "popular votes" from only the primaries, not the caucuses?

If so, there is no valid comparison to use them for. If we had "popular votes" from all of the states, then that could be used as a guideline.

[morningfog]

4. Good point. That leans in favor of pledged delegate winner.

[Agschmid]

3. In the primaries the popular votes means squat.

Caucus states don't even often provide it.

It's all about delegates.

[morningfog]

5. Point well taken.

But you that would be the argument put forth.

[Agschmid]

7. If that argument was put forth then someone is being dishonest.

Popular vote means squat.

*Not calling you anything at all just saying someone who made that argument.

[Kalidurga]

6. Interesting premise...

I think then that the delegates are just going to have to think very hard about what the best course of action is.

A. cast a vote based on how their state voted

B. cast a vote based on the national popular vote

C. vote based on what they think is best for the country

D. other

[thesquanderer]

8. They should choose the one who has the better chance of winning in November

re:

Should the supers follow the pledged delegate leader? The popular vote leader? The one who performed the best in swing states or who could put the most states in play? Personal preference?

"put the most states in play" would be the closest to the right answer... i.e., the one that data shows seems likely to win the most electoral votes, therefore the safest bet for a November win.

But it will probably be personal preference, which will probably mean Hillary. Unless there is some really over-riding reason to reconsider, like legal problems for Hillary.

[morningfog]

9. I think that is what it would come down to, at least publicly.

[JI7]

10. based on rules Sanders clearly should be the nominee