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geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
Mon Mar 28, 2016, 02:15 PM Mar 2016

Let's predict Wisconsin.

Polls show a close race. Demographics and 2008 indicate a Sanders blowout.

Which metrics do you trust?

1) Polls show a very tight race--Sanders +1 to Clinton +6 (the Marquette poll should be coming out later this week for its final installment) (the poll showing Clinton ahead is landline only)



fivethirtyeight.com shows a 69% chance of Clinton winning based on polls-only


2) Fivethirtyeight.com puts Sanders's target at 48/86--56%.


3) In 2008, Barack Obama won Wisconsin 58-40 over Clinton (he won the white vote 54-45).


So, either the polls are right, or the demographics and history are misleading us.

Which is right? What will happen.

7 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
Virtual tie--winner gets no more than 51%, de minimis delegate effect
0 (0%)
Clinton wins with 51-55% of the vote
0 (0%)
Clinton wins with over 55% of the vote
0 (0%)
Sanders wins with 51-55% of the vote
2 (29%)
Sanders wins with over 55% of the vote
5 (71%)
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
1 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Let's predict Wisconsin. (Original Post) geek tragedy Mar 2016 OP
It will be a squeaker either way. Agschmid Mar 2016 #1
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Let's predict Wisconsin.