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upaloopa

(11,417 posts)
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:20 PM Mar 2016

So if Hillary leads in pledged delegates going into the convention

And her 400 or so super delegates vote for her she wins the nomination right?

Bernie is behind about 250 pledged delegates. I don't see where he makes that up.

WI could help him close in but I don't see him winning big in NY, NJ or PA. He will fall behind again by a larger amount.

No state is winner take all and some are closed primaries. Only two caucus states are left.

23 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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So if Hillary leads in pledged delegates going into the convention (Original Post) upaloopa Mar 2016 OP
Yawp. Lucinda Mar 2016 #1
That's spelled with an "n", not a "p" HERVEPA Mar 2016 #6
I'm not tired of my candidate. So no yawning from me. Lucinda Mar 2016 #7
You have tremendous staying power to not be tired of the same post from the same HERVEPA Mar 2016 #14
My candidate is winning. That never gets old! Lucinda Mar 2016 #18
OK. I understand now Charlie. Winning. HERVEPA Apr 2016 #23
Lots of ifs. dogman Mar 2016 #2
I was glad someone finally used one of the delegate calculators to show how Sanders could win. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #20
Some will be higher, some lower. dogman Mar 2016 #21
At least 2 posters on DU created delegate calculators. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #22
Yep ... but whiners and complainers will still go on n/t cosmicone Mar 2016 #3
let's hope hillary wins more states. DesertFlower Mar 2016 #4
upaloopa predicts: Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #5
Well Bernie is still losing so it doesn't much matter upaloopa Mar 2016 #9
Fucking obnoxious and cklueless. HERVEPA Mar 2016 #15
LOL, +1 Marr Mar 2016 #16
Bernie is behind 228 pledged delegates. The pledged delegate morningfog Mar 2016 #8
Sure it is upaloopa Mar 2016 #10
No it is not. It is very hard, perhaps improbable or unlikely, even. morningfog Mar 2016 #12
Nope catnhatnh Mar 2016 #11
Whoever leads in pledged delegates is the nominee. nt geek tragedy Mar 2016 #13
It will be a sad day for the 99% if Clinton-Sachs wins the nomination. More job losses, rhett o rick Mar 2016 #17
If she wins pledged by even 50.1%, she wins Hydra Mar 2016 #19
 

HERVEPA

(6,107 posts)
14. You have tremendous staying power to not be tired of the same post from the same
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:05 PM
Mar 2016

poster for the 1000th time.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
20. I was glad someone finally used one of the delegate calculators to show how Sanders could win.
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:41 PM
Mar 2016

But, as expected, it's utterly unrealistic. It has Sanders winning big (by anywhere from 8 to 16 points) in NY, PA, NJ and CA. And it has him getting a higher than expected percentage in both MD and Washington DC. Even then, Sanders barely wins a majority of the pledged delegates. So, the "Bern Path" only goes to show just how unlikely it is that he'll win. I suppose this is why repeated requests for someone to demonstrate how he could win went unanswered.

dogman

(6,073 posts)
21. Some will be higher, some lower.
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:47 PM
Mar 2016

This let's you track it in an easy format. We have three months to find out. Unlikely is not impossible, it's a race.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
22. At least 2 posters on DU created delegate calculators.
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:53 PM
Mar 2016

And people have been invited to use those calculators to demonstrate a realistic path to the nomination for Sanders. It has not yet been done.

I understand that nobody can predict with 100% accuracy what the numbers will be in each state ("some will be higher, some lower," as you said). But the "Bern Path" is nowhere close to realistic. It's beyond unlikely.

DesertFlower

(11,649 posts)
4. let's hope hillary wins more states.
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:31 PM
Mar 2016

i'm shocked at how far bernie has come. what scares me is if he is the nominiee the republicans will tear him apart. right now he hasn't been vetted.

if for some reason he did become prez not much would get done, but that's better than having a repub.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
5. upaloopa predicts:
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:34 PM
Mar 2016

Dec 19-"If Bernie doesn't win IA and NH he is done."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251919512

June 10th "He won't make it passed Super Tuesday."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017271119#post3


So your ability to predict future outcomes is not all that impressive. It's more narrative material than actual prediction.

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)
9. Well Bernie is still losing so it doesn't much matter
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:49 PM
Mar 2016

The shame of it is we could be helping to win the general by now. As it is we have to cut the time down to a few months

Bernie isn't helping the country one bit with his ego trip campaign.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
8. Bernie is behind 228 pledged delegates. The pledged delegate
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:44 PM
Mar 2016

winner will be the nominee.

Bernie needs 56.5% of the remaining pledged delegates. It is not impossible.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
12. No it is not. It is very hard, perhaps improbable or unlikely, even.
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:54 PM
Mar 2016

But not impossible.

Since you like math, an example. If he had to win 125% of the remaining pledged delegates, that would be impossible. Kasich, for example, cannot mathematically get to the delegate count on the GOP side. It is impossible.

Bernie has to pretty much not lose any state left. He needs to win some states by large margins and at least break even in others. He damn near needs to run the table with wins. Hard to do. Unlikely. Not impossible.

catnhatnh

(8,976 posts)
11. Nope
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:52 PM
Mar 2016

There's a "win" number I forget but it is possible to enter the convention without a pledged delegate win and that is so even if she leads by "pledged" "super delegates". And that is because they are not. If it goes into the convention open all bets are off.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
17. It will be a sad day for the 99% if Clinton-Sachs wins the nomination. More job losses,
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:24 PM
Mar 2016

more war deaths, stronger Patriot Act and domestic spying legislation, more deregulation of big banks, etc.

Hydra

(14,459 posts)
19. If she wins pledged by even 50.1%, she wins
Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:31 PM
Mar 2016

The bigger question is if she doesn't and basically tells everyone to got to hell, she's the candidate and the party establishment says that's how it is.

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