# 2016 Postmortem

Related: About this forum# So if Hillary leads in pledged delegates going into the convention

And her 400 or so super delegates vote for her she wins the nomination right?

Bernie is behind about 250 pledged delegates. I don't see where he makes that up.

WI could help him close in but I don't see him winning big in NY, NJ or PA. He will fall behind again by a larger amount.

No state is winner take all and some are closed primaries. Only two caucus states are left.

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#### Lucinda

(31,147 posts)#### HERVEPA

(6,107 posts)#### Lucinda

(31,147 posts)#### HERVEPA

(6,107 posts)poster for the 1000th time.

#### Lucinda

(31,147 posts)#### HERVEPA

(6,107 posts)#### dogman

(6,073 posts)#### Garrett78

(10,721 posts)But, as expected, it's utterly unrealistic. It has Sanders winning big (by anywhere from 8 to 16 points) in NY, PA, NJ and CA. And it has him getting a higher than expected percentage in both MD and Washington DC. Even then, Sanders barely wins a majority of the pledged delegates. So, the "Bern Path" only goes to show just how unlikely it is that he'll win. I suppose this is why repeated requests for someone to demonstrate how he could win went unanswered.

#### dogman

(6,073 posts)This let's you track it in an easy format. We have three months to find out. Unlikely is not impossible, it's a race.

#### Garrett78

(10,721 posts)And people have been invited to use those calculators to demonstrate a realistic path to the nomination for Sanders. It has not yet been done.

I understand that nobody can predict with 100% accuracy what the numbers will be in each state ("some will be higher, some lower," as you said). But the "Bern Path" is nowhere close to realistic. It's beyond unlikely.

#### cosmicone

(11,014 posts)#### DesertFlower

(11,649 posts)i'm shocked at how far bernie has come. what scares me is if he is the nominiee the republicans will tear him apart. right now he hasn't been vetted.

if for some reason he did become prez not much would get done, but that's better than having a repub.

#### Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)Dec 19-"If Bernie doesn't win IA and NH he is done."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251919512

June 10th "He won't make it passed Super Tuesday."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017271119#post3

So your ability to predict future outcomes is not all that impressive. It's more narrative material than actual prediction.

#### upaloopa

(11,417 posts)The shame of it is we could be helping to win the general by now. As it is we have to cut the time down to a few months

Bernie isn't helping the country one bit with his ego trip campaign.

#### HERVEPA

(6,107 posts)#### Marr

(20,317 posts)#### morningfog

(18,115 posts)winner will be the nominee.

Bernie needs 56.5% of the remaining pledged delegates. It is not impossible.

#### upaloopa

(11,417 posts)#### morningfog

(18,115 posts)But not impossible.

Since you like math, an example. If he had to win 125% of the remaining pledged delegates, that would be impossible. Kasich, for example, cannot mathematically get to the delegate count on the GOP side. It is impossible.

Bernie has to pretty much not lose any state left. He needs to win some states by large margins and at least break even in others. He damn near needs to run the table with wins. Hard to do. Unlikely. Not impossible.

#### catnhatnh

(8,976 posts)There's a "win" number I forget but it is possible to enter the convention without a pledged delegate win and that is so even if she leads by "pledged" "super delegates". And that is because they are not. If it goes into the convention open all bets are off.

#### geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)#### rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)more war deaths, stronger Patriot Act and domestic spying legislation, more deregulation of big banks, etc.

#### Hydra

(14,459 posts)The bigger question is if she doesn't and basically tells everyone to got to hell, she's the candidate and the party establishment says that's how it is.