2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMorning Joe
I was actually feeling pretty good last night and this morning when I woke up. Then I watched snippets of Morning Joe (too painful to watch entire segments). I tuned in because I wanted to get a feel for the morning spin. They were talking about how a 47/47 tie is okay for a challenger but not good news for an incumbent. John Heilemann (someone that I do like because I think he tries to be balanced) was on the panel. He agreed that it was not a good spot for the President. At that point I flipped to another channel so I did not have to hear the gloom and doom. Then later when I tuned in again the guy from Politico was on (not the hack that was on with Todd the other day but the kinder one that kinda just lays it out there) and he was saying that Obama was depending on a 3 state strategy (Ohio plus Nevada and Wisconsin). He said the momentum is with Romney. He said that Obama is hoping that this is like the Spring of 2008 when Hillary got momentum but the electoral math did not add up for her. He said Obama is hoping that he can block Romney off so that regardless of the momentum, it will be impossible for him to win. Then he went on to say the Romney campaign was surprised about the momentum and that they did not fully believe the polls at first. What? Now they are considering polls? When Obama was ahead the polls were junk. Ughhhhhhhhhhhhhh...I don't know why I do this to myself. Stressing over something that I have no control over. It is hard because here everyone is saying that Obama has the momentum. I want to believe that. But then I want to know what the media is saying so I can prepare myself in case things do turn against Obama. I don't want it to hit me as some huge surprise after the election. I know in the 2004 election I was in complete denial until election night. The polls showed Bush with a slight lead but I discounted that. Then I was on DU and everyone was all happy. Then that night happened and it hit me so hard. It was months before I could even turn a political show on. It just never occurred to me that people would be stupid enough to elect Bush after everything he had done. I just could not believe it. In this case, I can't believe that people out there might elect Romney as president. I mean an absolute LIAR as the president of the U.S. A man that does not have a clue about foreign policy. A man that embarrassed us when he did his national tour. Really? I just want this election to be OVER. I hope and pray that Obama is able to eek out a win. I don't even care about landslide scenarios. I just want 270. The fact that those people on MSNBC think there is a possibility that Romney could start flipping states with his momentum makes me ILL!
MrYikes
(720 posts)I just don't understand how a person could vote for romney.
michello
(132 posts)This is very annoying..
nenagh
(1,925 posts)That Romney will link foreign affairs to economic issues during this debate...
(or no one would keep watching)....
I was surprised.. so thought I'd post it here...
boingboinh
(290 posts)imgbitepolitic
(179 posts)instead, only watch rachel, lawrence and chris.
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)thats what i do now. watching morning joe is as bad as watching fox and dopes these days.
Cal33
(7,018 posts)Stephanie from 9 a.m. - noon, Mon - Fri.
sandyshoes17
(657 posts)The MSM set it up and cheating did the rest. I cannot sit and watch it happen again. I hope we kick their asses than get straighten out our election process. I still have hope.
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)He had more of a ground game, more focused advertising the post 9/11 fear factor on his side. It was a horse race but ultimately, the majority of the polls showing him with a slender lead proved correct. I'm not going to speculate on what went down in Ohio, but he won the popular vote regardless. Looking at the whole picture, I would say Romney is slightly worse off than Kerry at this point eight years ago; remember that the Gallup poll, for instance, predicts that minorities will form only 20% of the electorate (down from 23% & 26% in 04 and 08 respectively), which is a ridiculous notion.
For all of his weak shilling, I think it was telling that Chuck Todd was more or less saying on Twitter that Ohio isn't happening for Romney.
lunatica
(53,410 posts)Rove was riding his wave that year. King of smear. We hadn't figured him out yet.
The Obama campaign operatives have learned the Rove lesson quite well. If we really are even in the polls, which I don't believe for a second, we're managing to do it with a fraction of the money their Super Pacs have poured into it.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Because the incumbent is winning and will win Ohio.
boingboinh
(290 posts)sandyshoes17
(657 posts)Greg Palast was just on. Very informative. He said to vote in person whenever possible. They throw out 100,000's of mailed in votes. That's what these companies they hire are there for. Amazing.
Cosmocat
(14,575 posts)that BO is limping to the finish line.
Just a fact, and the comparison to the final stages of the 08 primary actually is not horrible.
Look, Romney CLEARLY is the one in trouble because while BO has lost a good bit of ground the last three weeks, Romney still is a very big longshot to clear the Electoral College. That is where the good news for Rs/bad news for Ds crape always taints the "analysis."
But, BO HAS lost a lot of ground.
Three weeks ago he was trending toward a pretty solid 5 point spread nationally and 330+ EVs.
Right now, he will likely AT BEST have a 2.5 or so point spread and probably is looking at 290 EVs.
HOPEFULLY he can get past this week at least treading water or maybe finding a way to uptick a bit.
I posted mid September, I wish the election was then ...
That was BO's high point.
adigal
(7,581 posts)Enough said.
Cosmocat
(14,575 posts)It if were today, BO would win ...
-LOKI -BAD FOR YA
(308 posts)are you what they call a debbie downer ,because you use all the right words ex:that BO is limping to the finish line .you can be more positive ;ex: obama finish ahead of romney . its how you view it ,you can positive and realistic at the same time ,if you have the firm conviction we will win
Cosmocat
(14,575 posts)I don't go around trying to tell people who are posting it is a blowout that they are silly or whatever.
And, my personal conviction either way means next to nothing how this turns out.
I like BO A LOT, I tell everyone that, even my R friends, I have his and my senators signs up in my yard and in some common areas, I will phone bank next weekend, I have 1,000s of posts here saying how much I want to rip my hair out with how nuts republicans are.
I do my part and work to get the good guys elected.
Save the "you take joy in the bad news BS!"
It just is the sober assessment of where things are.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)Where in the world you get Obama 'limping' based on ACTUAL REAL data is beyond me. Are you following information that's coming from on the ground or just hyperventilating from poll to poll. Are you following Jon Ralston's tweets showing NV early voting make it a lock. Or the campaign news out of IA showing THAT to be a lock? Same for OH? NC, where there was double the Af-Am turnout vs. white yesterday and increase in NEW voters?
I mean come on. Limping?
Can't even take that seriously. Moving on...
Cosmocat
(14,575 posts)I know this somehow is to be taken as wanting it to be so, but he is, and yeah, it is from polling, the cumulative and poll of polls, intrade ... He simply is at a lower margin than he was three weeks ago, by a wide margin, and the margin should be getting bigger with time ticking.
Look, I skeptical two years ago.
I did not WANT to believe the polling showing a blood letting in the House, but it happened.
The numbers are the numbers.
You can not take is seriously, or you can take it seriously, but it is reality.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)Cosmocat
(14,575 posts)HE isn't limping, but the margin's are limping ...
I like Barrack Obama a LOT, I tell people that and I do my part.
I personally don't see how people gin themselves up to believe he is so bad, and I have no capacity whatsoever, to understand how someone could vote for Romney.
But, there ARE going to be A LOT of people who do - at least 48% or so.
John2
(2,730 posts)Joe Scarborough has been hoodwinked by the Polls and the Romney Campaign. North Carolina is good evidence of that. The Romney campaign lied about pulling out of North Carolina. The truth is they are behind in North Carolina and fighting hard to flip it.
Remember Gravis Marketing showing a Poll of Romney getting over twenty percent of the African American vote in North Carolina and even PPP showing Romney pulling as much as eleven percent in their Polling. Well, I'm looking at some data and it looks like Romney is only pulling less than two percent of the African American vote in North Carolina. If it continues, all the Polls in North Carolina will be off. 97% of Romney's vote in North Carolina is white so far. Obama is pulling 40% of the white vote so far in early voting. Romney is falling short on white voters. At Obama's rate, he is getting over 50% of the vote so far. Send this memo to Joe Scarborough. The unlikely voters are voting too. Maybe they should flip the screen to registered voters?
NCLefty
(3,678 posts)The president is still looking good electorally, and that's how you win. Continue to remain calm (for now).
Oh, and please paragraphs :/
whttevrr
(2,345 posts)They're not just for Schoolmarms.
lunatica
(53,410 posts)for months. I simply couldn't listen to or watch anything political because the pain was so bad. Listening to Bush talk about the political capital he had just gotten and that he intended to use every bit of it was horrible. And when Kerry conceded immediately even though he had promised he would fight it because we all knew they were breaking laws all over the place was the ultimate slap in the face.
MrYikes
(720 posts)Oh my you just brought back horrible memories! I told my Honey that I was wanting to move out of the Country if Romney is elected. Then I thought better of that and just vowed to do all that I can to help mitagate any damage that an administration with him at the helm could cause. Buttt... Obama is going to win this!!!!!
You could volunteer to help President Obama win. If the memory is that horrible? Don't acquiesce. Fight. And just don't give up.
Make phone calls. Post links. tell people why you think they should vote for the President.
DPalmCoast519
(19 posts)I believe the show is being broadcast from Boca Raton where they are highly Republican there. The show is pandering to its audience there. Hang in there.
TampaKeeper
(48 posts)It's in Palm Beach county and it's much more Democratic than Republican by a lot.
DPalmCoast519
(19 posts)PB County has more democrats registered; but, Boca Raton is primarily Republican.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)They are the "balance" to get right-wingers to watch. It's also funny how Chuck Todd is more honest on Twitter than the character he plays on television....he said last night he thinks Ohio is a reach for Rmoney.
Tree-Hugger
(3,370 posts)...when they said the "momentum" is with romney. If by "momentum" they mean he has his a plateau and is starting to sink while Obama slowly makes gains, then I guess they are right. No, romney does not have momentum.
P.S. - it's Fox. Don't do that to your brain. Watch cartoons, instead.
MSMITH33156
(879 posts)there is no Romney momentum. And the Ohio numbers look awful for him. How is he planning on winning this election?
whttevrr
(2,345 posts)He's gonna use Magic! I thought people here were enlightened?
ejbr
(5,856 posts)Current online http://myrtv.eu/crnt47/ Hat tip to DU member tech3149
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)The fact that Romney lied clear through the 1st debate was bad enough, but to watch the mainstream media fall all over themselves to kiss Romney's ass the way they did, was simply unbelievable.
Then, for the very same people to say that President Obama didn't get a bump in the polls after the 2nd debate was incredible, especially when you consider just how bad Romney was beat in that debate.
So, this "47-47, they are tied" crap seems to me to be just that, crap!
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)No one to blame but yourself here.
What is sad is your username. Again, explains a lot!
Good luck with that.
BigDemVoter
(4,157 posts)Can't stand him, never watch him.
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)is to stop watching Republican talk shows. They will bring you down and drive you insane. The media has a vested interest in keeping this race close. The closer the race, the more emotionally invested people are. The more invested people are , the more they'll watch the news channels. The more viewers the shows have , the more they can charge for ads.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)remote control
Ghost of Tom Joad
(1,356 posts)They think that by saying something makes it so.
Marthe48
(17,045 posts)off this and their jobs depend on spewing BS, literally filling the air with it. Ever drive through farm country in the spring when the farmers are spraying liquid cow manure on the fields? The smell lingers in the air and you can hardly breathe. Well, shows like this morning on CNN have the same odor. I couldn't believe it when I heard those IDIOTS talking about an EV tie.
-LOKI -BAD FOR YA
(308 posts)are you trying to induct mass panic.get off your knees you can not move on the ground . i,am sure i may offend some ;this is not my intent, but i will not suffer fools gladly. , i do not have the time .but in times of danger, we must make an effort to show we have backbone. nothing is better than victory .its not easy.if so everyone would be doing it, but if you have one more push 24 hours forget the toadie .remember denial is 40 miles wide . but one inch deep i know from personal experience. i am tired of eek it out .sounds like something i decide on my thone