Charlie Cook's latest on the Presidential race (we're uncomfortably ahead)

[geek tragedy]

http://cookpolitical.com/story/4973

Romney entered the first debate with an edge arguably in only one battleground state: North Carolina. Going into the second debate, the former Massachusetts governor also led narrowly in Florida and Virginia, putting him ahead in three of 11 battleground states. Obama now holds small leads in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, with a slightly wider advantage in Nevada. He still leads, in my judgment, in Ohio by about 4 points (although going into the second debate, one senior Romney strategist claimed that the two men were essentially tied at 47 percent in the Buckeye State). Romney is polling far back in Michigan and Pennsylvania, states that are effectively noncompetitive.

Although history and this column have argued that the popular vote and the electoral vote usually go in the same direction (that’s what happened in 53 of 56 presidential elections), today, Romney’s national popular-vote situation is different than his Electoral College challenge. Romney’s scar tissue in swing states—the damage inflicted on him by negative ads funded by the Obama campaign and Priorities USA, targeting Bain Capital, plant closings, layoffs, outsourcing, income taxes, and bank accounts in Bermuda, the Caymans, and Switzerland—is still a huge problem. This is compounded by the fact that before the ads aired, voters knew very little about Romney; because of that, they had no positive feelings or perceptions to help him weather the assault. As a result, the attacks stuck as if he were covered in Velcro. Hence, the swing states, many of which have endured saturation advertising since June (73,000 ads in Las Vegas alone), behave differently than the fortysomething other states that have seen little advertising.

The big unknown in this race is turnout--we know the Republicans' base will turn out because they hate Obama. Will our base--especially young and Hispanic voters--turn out in similar numbers? Will our likely voters actually stay home, or are our unlikely voters the secret weapon in this campaign?

The two campaigns are talking different campaigns--Obama's people are talking numbers, Romney's are talking momentum. Usually numbers trump, but not always.

[DFW]

1. Don't let Charlie Cook's Louisiana drawl confuse you

He is really neutral and really tries to be as objective as possible. Where he has bad news (to us), he's usually spot on. If he's got good news for us, he's usually right about that too.

[amborin]

2. so, what do we do to ensure turnout?

[DFW]

12. We need massive help on the ground

We already know that the Republicans are using a very wide-spread net of operatives to deny Democrats the right to vote. From criminals tossing out voter registrations to thugs harassing native Americans in the plains states to private programmers of electronic vote-counting machines to robocalls to Democratic districts telling voters that they should not come vote until Wednesday due to heavy traffic, they are using EVERY manner of election tampering they can, since they know that in a fair election, they lose, and lose BIG. So? Every able body who can should get to the nearest local office of the Democratic Party and ask WHAT they can do to get registered voters to the polls on November 6th. Volunteer your time, stay awake as long as you can, man the phones, knock on doors, TALK to people, get them to the polls. It won't happen by itself.

[amborin]

17. Great suggestions, thanks!

[geek tragedy]

3. And internal pollsters talk to him.

He doesn't rely on public polling, and makes a point to ignore crap robopolls.

[Indykatie]

21. Totally Agree with DFW on Cook's Impartiality

I place great confidence in his assessment of the race unlike my feelings about Larry Saboto who is grossly overrated in my opinion.

[Doctor Jack]

4. I am reading that and it sounds like good news

He says Obama is ahead in every state that he needs to be. The problem is that Romney can't win without Ohio, where every objective poll shows that he isn't close to having the lead there. He also needs to win several other states that he isn't leading in. He needs to have a perfect game on election night in order to just barely get above 270. The path is too narrow and all of the pointless pessimism doesn't change that fact.

[fleur-de-lisa]

6. Excellent analysis, Dr J . . .

I completely agree with you.

[geek tragedy]

13. Romney could win without Ohio but it's really difficult.

He'd have to win Wisconsin and Iowa, and he ain't winning Wisconsin.

[justiceischeap]

5. I really worry about the Occupy voting bloc

I don't think we can count on them for Obama votes, I see them writing in Paul or Johnson or don't vote at all). So, votes that would normally go to the Dems, won't be. I hope there are enough Repubs dissatisfied with Romney that those Occupy votes get evened out.

[LisaL]

7. I think a lot of republicans don't even like Romney.

They are voting against Obama. But hopefully at least some of the republicans really can't stand Romney.
In which case they could stay home, vote for Gary Johnson, or write someone in.

[geek tragedy]

10. Meh, the people who refuse to vote for Obama on the left in 2012

were the same that refused to vote for the Democrat for President in 2008, 2004, and 2000.

That sliver of votes isn't going to change, so no sense fretting over it.

[ginnyinWI]

11. I know of at least two working-class types who have turned against Obama too

I don't know why because I really didn't want to get into it. They seem to feel let down by him in some way.

[geek tragedy]

16. There's a certain number who are going to vote against the incumbent

Especially in a weak economy.

[ginnyinWI]

8. Well he's right about the saturation in swing states!

In Wisconsin we are being snowed under by political flyers, mainly GOP in my red county here. And on TV, every news program, at least, is filled with ads, ads, ads over and over. And even though we DVR most of our programs, we are even sick of fast forwarding through them all! I don't know about radio because I listen mainly to public radio. Signs are mostly GOP too--they are spending a ton of money on signs. Don't know if that is a good use of money or not. Hope not!

Latest from Nate Silver is that Wisconsin has a 79% chance of going for Obama.

[WI_DEM]

9. Poll after poll shows Obama far ahead with 'confirmed voters' people who have actually voted.

[ginnyinWI]

14. so people who are enthusiastic are the ones who are voting Obama

I think a lot of Romney voters are the "hold your nose" kind.

[creeksneakers2]

15. If Romney wins the popular vote

and Obama wins the electoral college Romney won't just accept the result and concede. Romney will try to win the race by using the 36 Republican state legislatures to give Romney a majority of electors.

[yellowcanine]

19. State legislatures cannot change allocation of EVs after the fact.

[creeksneakers2]

24. The state legislatures can choose the electors

No matter who wins the election in that state. See Bush V. Gore. The Supreme Court ruled that state legislatures have plenary (plenary authority refers to the complete power of a governing body) power to choose electors. Would the GOP do such an outrageous thing? In 2000, in Florida, the GOP state legislature declared that if Gore won a recount that they would still give the election to Bush. I heard no complaints from anyone about that. If the GOP tried to do it this time, they'd find some way to justify it to their voters, which wouldn't be hard, since they accept subverting democratic ideals below their own agenda. See voter ID laws. The GOP would just say that the founding fathers left the power of state legislatures to choose electors for just such a situation.

From Bush V. Gore

" The individual citizen has no federal constitutional right to vote for electors for the President of the United States unless and until the state legislature chooses a statewide election as the means to implement its power to appoint members of the Electoral College. U. S. Const., Art. II, §1. This is the source for the statement in McPherson v. Blacker, 146 U. S. 1, 35 (1892), that the State legislature's power to select the manner for appointing electors is plenary; it may, if it so chooses, select the electors itself, which indeed was the manner used by State legislatures in several States for many years after the Framing of our Constitution. Id., at 28-33. History has now favored the voter, and in each of the several States the citizens themselves vote for Presidential electors. When the state legislature vests the right to vote for President in its people, the right to vote as the legislature has prescribed is fundamental; and one source of its fundamental nature lies in the equal weight accorded to each vote and the equal dignity owed to each voter. The State, of course, after granting the franchise in the special context of Article II, can take back the power to appoint electors. See id., at 35 ("[T]here is no doubt of the right of the legislature to resume the power at any time, for it can neither be taken away nor abdicated&quot (quoting S. Rep. No. 395, 43d Cong., 1st Sess.)."

http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?court=US&vol=000&invol=00-949

[yellowcanine]

25. Yes but they can't change the method of selection after the fact. The Florida Legislature's action

in 2000 was never tested because SCOTUS stopped the count. If they had not stopped the count and had Gore won there would have been 2 sets of electors. At that point it would have been in the hands of the Senate I believe to vote on which set of electors to recognize. And probably another court case.

[yellowcanine]

18. Ohio has not moved enough to suggest it will flip.

There has been some tightening, yes, but Obama has sustained a lead there at least since the conventions. This suggests the fundamentals are on his side. Taking Ohio out of play makes it very difficult for Romney. A lot of other things would have to go his way and the chances are still fairly good that Obama will win Virginia. And I still think both NC and Florida will be in play for a long time on election night, based on Obama's strength with Hispanic voters. So far early voting has been encouraging for Obama in Ohio, NC and Florida.

[geek tragedy]

20. If it were a true tossup, you would see polls with Rmoney in the lead

A truly tied race would show as many polls with Romney ahead as with Obama ahead. But all of the polling is on the wrong side of the 50 yard line for Rmoney.

[Maximumnegro]

22. Yep!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. interesting take - about the Bain ads defining Wrongney before they knew him. That's

why it was so important not to let him look "acceptable" at the debates.

His people are laying the groundwork for a milder, gentler Wrongney on Iran today.

We had better be ready with so old warhawk quotes !!