Here's the latest from electoral-vote

[GallopingGhost]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct23.html

The great news is that we've solidified Michigan and swung NH back into our column. Bad news is Romney appears to be trending in Colorado; hopefully the debate will swing it back.

President Obama won a decisive victory last night. Praying it has a huge impact on swing state voters as the PPP thread indicated.

[yellowcanine]

1. Both Florida and Colorado 1 point differences; VA tie. That is pretty good news.

Even a 2 point bump in the battleground states could make a real big difference in a hurry and based on the post debate flash polls it appears that Obama will get at least that much of a bump if not more. And any bumps now are more likely to last until election day (no more debates to anticipate), particularly if the job numbers are good (keeping my fingers crossed on that)

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

4. IMO, Florida's coming back into the Obama column

There was a rally at Delray Beach at 8:00 this morning and traffic was backed up for a mile trying to see the president speak.

Debate 2 blunted Romney's momentum. Debate will put us back where we we in September. (IMHO)

[JiminyJominy]

2. Great News..

Still just want Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio and we are good to go.

As much as O mentioned Israel and teachers though I expect to get an additional bounce from the Jewish vote and female vote.

[LisaL]

3. AZ is listed as barely Romney.

Did we have any good polls in there?

[GallopingGhost]

8. This article is from Oct. 14, but

it is very possible AZ could go Dem, depending on Hispanic turnout.

http://www.kpho.com/story/19814639/new-az-poll-dead-heat-in-presidential-race-latino-vote-key

For some reason I can't find the latest AZ polls.

[GallopingGhost]

10. There's this...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/arizona.html

Sorry, sometimes in the AM I'm really

[John2]

5. North Carolina

Chuck Todd and Paul Begala states President Obama gave up on North Carolina. Jim Messina ( Obama's campaign manager) states not so. The last Poll done out of North Carolina was dome by Grove showing Obama with a 47-44 lead.

The updated total for North Carolina's Early voting shows an increasing Democratic lead similar to 2008:

51.23 % Dems
30.21% Rep

African Americans so far are 31% of that vote.
The media gave the reason North Carolina will go Republican because of white conservative Democrats voting Republican. They also cite 20% of the primary vote did not vote for President in the Democratic Primary. That is their caveat. Only 966,000 people voted in the Democratic primary because there was no opposition. 200,000 people did not vote for President Obama.

16% of white conservative Democrats didn't vote for President Obama in 2008. These are likely voters. That 20% will be a smaller percent in a larger sample. So this is easily debunked.

Therefore there is no evidence for Paul Bengala or Chuck Todd to make a claim North Carolina is leaning Romney. He is behind in early voting period. Many of the people voting did not even vote in the Democratic primary for President. More evidence is Obama is still spending in North Carolina. His staff is still there.

[LisaL]

6. Bengala already admitted he was wrong.

Why in the world would Obama give up on NC when they are voting like crazy and so far democrats appear to have a big advantage by party affiliation?

[BlueDemKev]

7. OH, WI, plus either IA or NV is all we need...

...barring a disaster in PA or MI.

We know we have 201 electoral votes locked away (ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, IL, MN, NM, CA, OR, WA, and HI).

Add in: PA (20) and MI (16) takes us to 237.

Add in: OH (18) and WI (10), puts us at 265.

Add in: IA (6) or NV (6), will put us at 271, and we'll win the election regardless of what happens in CO, NH, VA, or FL.

[NYC Liberal]

9. Check out the Rasmussen-free map where Obama is up to 303 EVs:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct23-noras.html

Colorado is barely red and Virginia is tied with Rasmussen included, but both are blue without.

[GallopingGhost]

11. That's awesome!

I forgot to check the Rasmussen-free.