I agree with Maher that his bet is during election night it will be very close

[bigdarryl]

And that IT IS NOT in the bag for Obama http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/02/27/bill-maher-defends-super-pac-donation-obamas-victory-not-in-the-bag/

[PSPS]

1. The media will make it "very close" whether it is or not. After all, there are ad spots to sell.

[mdmc]

2. I disagree

I think we have it in the bag..
But I am by no means the smartest person in the room..

[bigdarryl]

3. All I will say is George W.Bush in 2000 we all made fun of him

and thats the point Mahar is trying to get across that the American people are dumb and stupid when it comes to voting he even thinks calling Romney a flip flopper will back fire on the democrats during election I don't know about that one.

[GCP]

12. Not to mention skullduggery on a par with 2000 and 2004

Those elections were stolen by voter fraud, voter disenfranchisement and repression, gerrymandering and judicial activism.
Don't think the pukes are sitting down this time and letting voters vote.

[rainy]

4. in the wee hours of the night is when all the vote changes happen. Always in the wee hours.

They will steal it if they can and we still sit back and do nothing. The press ignores all the evidence.

[bigdarryl]

6. As Randy says if its not close they can't seal it the bottom line is get your ASS OUT AND VOTE

[HeiressofBickworth]

9. I agree

We had ALL better get out and vote! It MUST be a landslide for Obama because anything less will be too easy for the repugs to override with their hacking of the electronic voting equipment. And, they have managed over the years to get THEIR electronic voting equipment in enough states so that they have an even larger access to the ability to change the outcome. We've seen previews of this (Florida 2000; Ohio 2004, and even some repug primaries). I believe the only reason Obama won in 2008 was the turnout was greater than their ability to override. Well, that and Palin turning some repugs. SO VOTE -- GET YOUR NEIGHBORS, RELATIVES, FRIENDS to vote.

[GCP]

13. Exactly

I put NOTHING past them.

[Hoyt]

5. Maher is right on this. Lots of callous people to vote republican.

Couple that with complacency, economy, Iran, right wings hatred of poor folks from South America, and a lot more, and anything can happen.

[Kalidurga]

7. A factor people seem to forget is that...

GW Bush in 1999 was a likable kind of guy. Goofy, prone to malaprops, a jeans wearing wannabee cowboy, and he seemed to connect with the blue collar types. There are no likable GOP candidates, not even the base likes them except for maybe a small contingency of bat shit insane conservatives that would vote for a rock if that rock was a Republican. I don't think it will be close. I think if Romney is nominated he will become even more unlikable on the campaign trail. If Santorum is nominated he will start sounding even more insane in an endless feedback loop where the truly insane branch of the party feed his ego giving him the green light to sound even more nuts which in turn encourages him to trot out even more insane rantings. Then there is Emperor of the Moon Gingrich, who is just itching to put five year olds to work as janitors. And lest not forget mister I didn't know that my newsletters were racist Ron Paul. Seriously this is the competition? We really have gone to where no man has gone before.

[Hawaii Hiker]

10. Not only that, but in the 1990's -

the GOP brand was in FAR better standing with their approval & likeability numbers....They were NO where as toxic as they are now, it's not even close....Hell, back in the 1990's they had real moderates, now, probably easier to spot a T-Rex in Manhattan than finding a moderate republican....

[fugop]

16. Even more important ...

... the press freakin' LOVED Dubya. They couldn't stop fawning over what a regular guy he was, as he called them all by precious little nicknames and made them all blush like schoolgirls. That same press LOATHED Al Gore, and if you go back and look at the coverage, that's what really stands out.

Nobody loves Romney. Not the people holding their noses and voting for him. Not the media, which wants a horserace but finds him boring - as do we all. He's an empty suit. A hairdo. I just find it hard imagining anyone dredging up any passion for him at all. Frankly, I think a lot of GOPers might just forget to vote. He doesn't have the draw of a Santorum or a Palin or a Bush.

That's not to say he has zero chance, but while I used to be most worried about him due to his "moderate" image, I think he blew it. We'll see.

[bowens43]

8. if its romney it will be close

any of the other nut jobs and Obama walks away with an easy win

[Cosmocat]

15. THIS

If he can get past the primary, Romney will be a solid general election president.

He LOOKS the part, first.

Second, his biggest problem is that he really does not truly believe in all of the far right crape, and he struggles trying to act like he does.

Get him into the general, where the politics will be closer to where he is, and he does not have to bend over backwards trying to feed the base, and he will be much more comfortable - just going after BO.

ALSO - because he is the insider favorite, but is so hated by the base, the "liberal media" has been let out of its box, and is free to actually report on how deranged the Rs are. But, once it becomes a 1 on 1 battle, and the party holds its nose for Romney, the media will be bullied back into its box of mitigating and excusing R lunacy as opposed to calling it for what it is, and turning on the D for whatever BS talk radio is rallying around.

I still like BO's chances if the economy holds up and no major security event occurs, but more along the lines of 2008, a clear, but not overwhelming win.

Santorum is smart and very capable, but he will not tact to the middle like Romney would, and he is SO far to the right, he will give up more states. Non R women will run screaming from him, and it will move the discussion to social issues, which the Rs are not going to win right now.

[fugop]

18. Not so sure ...

I used to think Romney would be tough because he might attract the nearly extinct moderate GOPers. But I'm not sure now. I think he's damaged goods with both sides of the GOP spectrum now. Candidates usually go for the base during the primary, then swing back to center for the election,right? But the GOP base is so rabid that I don't think that works anymore. See the last presidential election, when Palin was so freakin' crazed and got the right so worked up and frothing that McCain couldn't swing back. Even Sarah got mad at him!

The expectations from the nutjobs running that party are that they'd rather go down with the ship then rein in the crazy. They're all in. And because of that, I think Mitt is doomed. We'll see.

[Cosmocat]

19. except their deranged hatred of Obama is the rallying point

End of the day, their hatred of Obama (pretty much ANY D) will put them behind Romney.

Look - I do agree, once again, under the conditions that the economy remains on its slow uptick, and no major security events occur, I do think BO is very likely looking at a 08 margin against Romney.

But, while pathetic in his own way, Romney is not McCain, who just went full stupid with the Palin pick. Romney will find someone like Rubio who will make the far right happy, but won't be the train wreck Palin was.

And, again, the media will get line and make it a race.

He, by far, is their best bet in the general.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. It will be close...

...until 8:00 EST when the following states close:

Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Washington, DC

I predict, at that point, Obama will take a 99-55 lead in the electoral college and balloon that lead to at least 173 electoral votes by 9:00 - to the Republican's 83 electoral votes.

It will play out very much like '08 did.

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. And the GOP has voter suppression in addition to Super PACs

All the ID rules could suppress a large part of Democratic-leaning demographics. This year, 'get out the vote' needs to mean 'make sure the vote cannot be challenged' - as far in advance as possible.

[MatthewStLouis]

17. Great thread. Many great ideas rolling around here. My 2 cents: it will be close.

This election will be a real test to see what kind of nation we are living in. Are we a progressive leaning nation made up of people who care enough to vote. Or do the conservatives really care more about their own selfish agenda?

As to voter suppression: Isn't it mainly happening in red states, which makes it a non-issue?

The media will (hopefully) make the election seem close. Nothing like reptiles (sorry reptiles) like Santorum or Romney breathing down their necks to get moderate thinking people out to vote.

I think there is much to the idea that Romney is secretly a "moderate" and in a bad economy people will think about trying the other side for a while. I have known many people who vote in elections, like they do for ice cream flavors at Baskin Robins; mint chocolate chip one time, peanut butter brickle the next.

I imagine if everyone voted, Obama would win in a landslide. Unfortunately, many people don't vote because they think it doesn't matter who wins. Apathy is the only way republicans will win this. They get their zombie wedge issue voters all worked up in a frenzy, while the rest of us are shrugging our shoulders wondering why they focus on this crap.