Obama Reelection Odds Increase In Prediction Markets Following Foreign Policy Debate

[SunSeeker]

From HuffPo:

The consensus after Monday night's third and final presidential debate is that Barack Obama was the winner. But the president's victory begs an important question -- does success in Boca Raton, Fla., mean he's more likely to win the election? Will voters care about foreign affairs at a time when things are so rough at home?

According to online prediction markets, which pool conventional wisdom about the probability of future events, voters do care. Numbers compiled by PredictWise, which averages Obama's reelection odds on political betting websites like Intrade, showed that Obama received a bump during Monday night's debate in the likelihood of winning on Nov. 6.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/23/obama-reelection-odds-prediction-debate_n_2005379.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

[elleng]

1. Think political betting websites are worth much???

[SunSeeker]

3. Better than a stick in the eye.

Yes, they totally botched the ACA SCOTUS ruling prediction, but that was based on VERY limited info--and it turned out to be wrong. Here, we've got polls out the wazoo and everyone can see what's happening.

[DarthDem]

5. The ACA Ruling . . .

. . . was also a near-complete shock to everyone.

[SunSeeker]

6. Seems the most shocked was Scalia. If that didn't stroke him out, nothing will. nt

[libdem4life]

2. Bump for Good News !!

[DavidDvorkin]

4. This is very good news for John McCain!

[demvoter4life]

7. I hope it

lasts and continues to go up