Final Wyoming result: A TIE: 7 to 7.

[pnwmom]

Still love caucuses?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries/2016-04-09

[Lucinda]

1. Only the ones with absentee votes allowed!

[JonLeibowitz]

28. Nonsense. I applaud the existence of absentee voting and caucusing.

In general I agree that caucuses suck.

What this result should tell you is that Sanders won 56-44 in a Democrats-only contest. I guess that should put to rest the idea that True Democrats prefer Clinton?

[lunamagica]

37. But this is not a diverse state. I think it is about 86% white?

[JonLeibowitz]

39. So? What does that have to do with the content of my post?

[lunamagica]

44. I was just pointing to the fact that Hillary wins in diverse states

If Wyoming was a diverse state, she would have won. It was close enough as it is.

[JonLeibowitz]

49. A diverse state, like Alaska and Hawaii? She doesn't win all diverse states, so your

categorical statement is false on its face. Thanks for trying though.

My statement about the debunked "True Democrats vote Hillary" meme stands.

[woolldog]

97. Alaska and Hawaii are not diverse states.

[Lizzie Poppet]

98. Hawaii is not diverse? LOL

You never bothered to check that, did you?

ProTip: Hawaii is less than 1/4 white.

[JonLeibowitz]

101. LOL. They are fitting the facts to their preexisting narrative.

Just about the only demographic that Sanders doesn't do well with is AAs.

His support is incredibly diverse.

[Lizzie Poppet]

102. Apparently, some people of color are more equal than others.

Asians, Native Americans, Latinos, Native Hawaiians...not so important, it seems.

[woolldog]

103. China is <1 percent white.

Is it a diverse country? No.

How white a population is, is not a measure of its diversity. To suggest that a population is diverse simply because it is non white is misguided.

Hawaii is almost entirely asian/pacific islander.

[Lizzie Poppet]

105. Again, you never bothered to check, did you? Hawaii demographics, in detail:

Asian: 41.6%
White: 24.3%
Mixed Race: 21.4%
Pacific Islander: 9.4%
Black: 1.8%
Native American: 0.3%
Other: 1.3%

How's that foot taste?

[woolldog]

108. of course I did.

American Indian and Alaska Native 24,882 2.1
Asian 703,232 58.0
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 282,667 23.3

Not "diverse" Overwhelmingly Asian/Pacific Islander

[Lizzie Poppet]

109. Your numbers fail to match ones sourced from the US Census:

http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data/hawaii/demographic.html

[woolldog]

116. you are misreading the census figures

the ones you cite are for one race. That is 50% asian But the mixed race subcategory is overwhelmingly mixed asian/pacific islander as well.

[Major Hogwash]

119. Thank you for using facts.

I have always wanted to move to Hawaii.

[woolldog]

104. pro tip

using "whiteness" as a measure for how diverse a population is, is inherently racist.

[Lizzie Poppet]

107. Good thing I did nothing of the sort, then.

Check the numbers in my other reply...then I'll accept your retraction.

[woolldog]

110. you absolutely did.

Your direct quote:

"You never bothered to check that, did you?

ProTip: Hawaii is less than 1/4 white."

As if the percentage of the white population makes the population of hawaii "diverse".

[Lizzie Poppet]

111. No, I most certainly did not.

That was a comment made about the state's diversity, not the sole justification for pointing out that Hawaii is one of the more diverse states in the country. Nice try at a straw man, though.

[woolldog]

113. You were using the % of the white population

as support for your argument that Hawaii's population is diverse. Hopefully you now see the error of your ways. Apology accepted.

[Lizzie Poppet]

115. Given that I already pointed out the inanity of that argument...

...and you simply doubled down, I think we're done here. Buh-bye...

[athena]

50. You mean the ones that allow the disabled, elderly, and poor to vote.

It's so undemocratic when those who work three jobs, are disabled, too weak to walk, or have children, are allowed to vote! Perhaps we should change the laws so that only university students can vote!

[mcar]

52. ..

[ronnykmarshall]

58. BRAVO!

[Lucinda]

67. Yep. Everyone who wants to vote should have the opportunity.

Too many caucus states do not have early/absentee pprovisions.

[boston bean]

77. Ha Lucinda! (luvs you!)!

[RichVRichV]

2. Has nothing to do with being a caucus.

Missouri is a primary and has just as convulated rules as the caucuses do, including district level delegates, PLEOs, at-large delegates, and unpledged delegates.

This is how the Democratic primary is setup whether a state is caucus or primary.

[pnwmom]

6. If it were a primary there would be a simple vote count showing who won.

But under Wyoming's caucus system, they tied.

Period.

[RichVRichV]

86. You're wrong.

The states use a similar convention system to proportion delegates regardless of the first round being primary or caucus. Just google 'any state name' and 'Democratic delegate plan 2016'. You will find a pdf that discusses district level delegates, PLEOs, at-large delegates, and unpledged delegates. They all use a siimilar system to apportion delegates.

Both Nevada (caucus) and Missouri (primary) have flipped because Hillary delegates didn't show up to the second round. It had nothing to do with the type of initial round.

[pnwmom]

88. Nevada hasn't flipped, according to both Politifact and Jon Ralston's blog. The margin is smaller

right now but it's still in Hillary's favor. And the process is ongoing.

I'm not familiar with Missouri. Do you have a link for that, that's not associated with either campaign?


http://www.politifact.com/nevada/statements/2016/apr/07/blog-posting/no-bernie-sanders-didnt-retroactively-win-nevada/

Politifact: "No, Bernie did not retroactively win Nevada"

Hillary Clinton was declared the winner of Nevada’s presidential caucuses back in February, but some supporters of Bernie Sanders are claiming the Vermont senator might have won the state after all.

The pronouncement came after Sanders delegates ended up outnumbering Clinton’s during the hectic Clark County Democratic Convention on April 2, leading many media outlets and supporters to declare that Sanders retroactively "won" the state by outmaneuvering Clinton.

So, did Sanders add another state to his column as many have claimed?

The answer is no, and it likely will remain that way.

We’ll tell you why.

SNIP

[RichVRichV]

94. This guy works for a site called politifacts in the state of Nevada and doesn't understand the

political rules of the state, that's kind of sad.

He did get some things correct. The superdelegates can still swing the state for Hillary. The process is still going on for pledged delegates. The PLEO and at-large delegates will be decided at the state convention. Those are all accurate.

However where this person and you are wrong is on the district level delegates. Those too are not decided until the state convention. Before the state wide votes on PLEO and at-large delegates, all the state delegates break into their congressional districts and vote on district delegates. So the district delegate count is in flux until the state convention.

Right now the pledged delegate count is breaking 16 to Hillary and 19 to Bernie. I'm right, politifacts is wrong.




The same thing happened in Missouri, at the second level, the county/ward/township level conventions, the delegate count flipped to favoring Bernie by about 80 delegates. As a result Bernie now leads by one district level delegate. Likewise the at-large delegates are based on statewide delegate totals which means Bernie will get one extra of those. The PLEOs are chosen by committee, which are seated based on the primary vote, so Hillary will pick up one there. The net result is the state has gone from being +1 for Hillary to being +1 for Bernie in pledged delegates. This too is contingent on turnout at the state convention.

[pnwmom]

95. Jon Ralston is a long time reporter at the Las Vegas Sun -- he doesn't work for Politifacts.

Politifacts is a non-partisan fact checker associated with a different newspaper.

I'd trust either of them over a Bernie guy with nothing to back it up but his own insistence.

[RichVRichV]

96. Here you go.

I'll make it real simple for you. Look at the date of selection on the chart on page 37 for district delegates. The date listed is the state convention date in June. How the rules are setup are also in there.

I can't post the link easily on my phone. Just go to google and type 'Nevada Democratic delegate plan 2016'. It's the first pdf file. If that's too much work for you then all I can say is ignorance is bliss.

[Andy823]

3. Not a big turnout

Bernie got 156 votes

Clinton 124 124 votes

[pnwmom]

4. Those aren't votes of individuals. They are SCD's -- delegate "equivalents"

that only caucuses use.

[Andy823]

5. Thanks I did just that.

Didn't know that.

[LiberalFighter]

85. But those delegates are based on caucus voters.

The same method to compute the number of delegates for primaries is used during this stage. Although I wish they used the raw numbers before those calculations. But Wyoming does it differently by assigning county delegates instead of district delegates. Part of the reason might be because Wyoming only has one congressional district.

[pnwmom]

89. I was just explaining that the turnout wasn't that tiny. Wyoming is a small state

and caucuses exclude too many, but even their caucuses weren't that small!

[mhatrw]

7. Democratic party at its finest.

2/3rds of the people who showed up to caucus statewide were Sanders supporters, so naturally somehow 2/3rds of delegates and superdelegates go to Clinton.

[pnwmom]

12. Where did you find that 2/3 for Sanders number?

Are you purposely leaving out people who voted absentee?

[Agschmid]

8. Surprised by this outcome.

[SidDithers]

9. DU rec...

20 primaries to go.

Sid

[HERVEPA]

82. Stick a fork in Sid. And leave it there.

OK for Bernie, should be OK for Sid

[SidDithers]

84. ...

Sid

[MoonRiver]

10. I am not understanding this.

Media declares Bernie to be the winner.

[pnwmom]

15. Media stopped paying attention. nt

[JudyM]

17. He won the popular vote.

[pnwmom]

18. Where have you seen a popular vote count? SCD's are not individual votes.

But, in any case, what he needs to win the NOMINATION are delegates.

And since she's ahead about 2.4 million in the popular vote count, whatever edge he got in this tiny state won't make a difference.

She's far ahead in the popular vote count and in the delegate count. And Wyoming didn't help close either gap.

[NastyRiffraff]

11. K&R

Big smile here!

[brer cat]

13. K&R

But, of course, there was a conspiracy or bernie would have won 110% of the votes.

[Dragonfli]

14. A 56% to 44% win is not a tie, you need to qualify your statement so it is not a lie

a True OP headline would read

Sanders wins a decisive 56% to 44% victory but is tied in Delegates due to anomalous caucus rules

but since your post was designed to misrepresent his achievement for propaganda purposes, I can see why you deliberately posted a misleading headline.

[pnwmom]

16. No, the end result is a TIE in delegates. And delegates will be the only people

going to the convention.

Caucus states don't even report numbers of actual voters. The figures you referred to are based on SCD's.

But I'm not one of the proponents of caucuses. I think they're a lousy way to choose a nominee..

[strategery blunder]

19. Only Hillary's delegates in previous caucuses have shown a tendency to not show up at the next level

The 7-7 is pretty much a result of large scale rounding error.

It won't take many Hillary no-shows at county conventions at all to flip it to Bernie 8-6 (and given how much of Hillary's support in WY came from surrogate ballots instead of those who attended, this outcome even seems likely).

You can cast a surrogate ballot in most caucuses now, but once you get to county conventions and beyond, you need AT LEAST your alternate delegates to SHOW UP.

[pnwmom]

21. If he DID manage to flip it to 8 - 6, he'd still be behind 538's delegate target for Wyoming.

Which means he slipped even further behind.

And there's only caucus state left -- and it is also tiny with few delegates.

He's about to hit some primaries with large numbers of African American voters, that are open only to people willing to register as Democrat. So he probably hit his high water mark in the caucuses in Washington state or Hawaii.

[Thinkingabout]

29. Good point, the number will be less for Hillary as her numbers grows after NY.

[strategery blunder]

45. NY doesn't have early voting either

Early voting (or surrogate voting in caucuses) has been one of Hillary's strengths and it doesn't get talked about much. She won't be able to rely on it to carry NY as she has in places like OH or AZ.

If Bernie has time to campaign in a state, he tends to close the gap. (Popegate notwithstanding, though I find it worthy of some popcorn munching)

First it was he won't win a single state,
then NH was his last hurrah (but maybe he'll manage VT too),
then he'd be out by Super Tuesday,
then he'd lose Michigan,
then he'd be out by March 15,
then he'd be out of the race when he lost Arizona...

...and Hillary hasn't won since (though I'll concede she did better than expected today). But the "Bernie's going to be out after losing X primary" is starting to sound a little bit like the boy who cried wolf.

We'll see what happens.

[pnwmom]

46. He's going to have trouble closing the gap without Independent voters.

Are you aware that it's a closed primary and registered voters had to be registered Democrats as of October, 2015?

And that registration of new voters closed a month before the primary date and there will be no same-day registration?

Those aren't conditions that have helped him succeed in the past.

[strategery blunder]

47. Yes, I'm aware.

I'm also aware that NY does not have early voting, a factor that has helped Hillary in the past.

Overconfidence is Hillary's weakness.

My faith in Bernie's supporters is mine.

[mcar]

53. And he's going to be in Italy for several days

[pnwmom]

56. If he does go, which I kind of doubt at this point -- he's already made his big media splash --

it will mean he's written NY off.

[mcar]

60. I don't see how he can bow out of the trip now

but I think you are correct.

[StevieM]

112. Those no shows happened in Nevada where they got letters telling them false information

about not needing to come. I haven't heard of any other states where Hillary lost delegates.

[Dragonfli]

20. I see the spin cycle is not complete, your washing machine appears to be broken.

That little green check marked area means a win, as even the corrupt media knows and has thus admitted he won, those # % things show by how much of a margin. (you must be new to political races not to know such things.)

[pnwmom]

22. The only thing that will be counted are the DELEGATES.

(And those percents there are SCD's, not individual votes.)

[Dragonfli]

25. spin spin spin spin spin. You bore me and are too obvious in your disingenuous crap

Tell every news outlet and person since I have followed elections (over 35 years) they had it wrong every election; and to correct their news reporting.

You have a great many letters to write so get to it! (while I place your boring spin cycle on permanent ignore, life is to short to waste on people that "mis-speak" as the popular euphemism for untruths appears to be now)

[pnwmom]

26. 7 to 7. Deal with it. n/t

[reddread]

27. 8 of the last 9.

your turn

[Tarc]

33. One step forward, two steps back

[reddread]

41. just inevitable

[pnwmom]

54. How many NET delegates did those 8 out of contests give Bernie?

Democrats abroad 5

Idaho 13

Utah 21

Alaska 10

Hawaii 9

WA 47

WI 10

WY 0

So he got 115 NET out of those caucuses, reduced by the 9 she got from Arizona.

So now instead of having over a 300 delegate lead, she has a greater than 200 delegate lead.

Even now, as Bernie has just about run out of western caucus states, she has a bigger lead over him than Obama EVER had over her.

And now we're heading into closed primaries (open only to registered Democrats) in large, diverse states.

New York alone has 247 delegates. All Hillary has to do is break even and she still stays way ahead.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

[reddread]

59. I recall Iowa being a HUGE WIN with what sort of split

I must be sexist to think there isnt some double standard being applied.
constantly.

[pnwmom]

61. Iowa was at the very beginning. Every delegate mattered a lot more then than it does

since she's built up such a huge lead.

It also, like New Hampshire, was in a state about 95% white -- not a state where Hillary was expected to do as well as she did.

[reddread]

66. hahahaha

yeah.

she lost 8 of the last 9,
none by the razor thin slices in questioned circumstances that become MASSIVE WINS for the inevitable.
Instead, by GREAT BIG MARGINS that would have been interpreted
so differently were the winner someone else.

[Heddi]

63. you made someone sad. Now they can't alert for a whole day

AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service
Mail Message
On Sat Apr 9, 2016, 08:27 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

spin spin spin spin spin. You bore me and are too obvious in your disingenuous crap
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1693795

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Calling a fellow DUer a liar (and she's speaking the truth, BTW) is OTT even on today's DU. Please hide.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Sat Apr 9, 2016, 08:32 PM, and the Jury voted 0-7 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Not seeing where poster is calling another a liar. Do not agree with alerter.
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Nothing outside TOS.
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Actually they're both telling the truth. Sanders won a majority but the delegate allotment is a tie.

Taunting each other doesn't help.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Comparing apples to oranges. Let it be.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: It's an opinion. Prove it wrong.

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[revbones]

48. So you're saying that the total vote number Hillary followers use to say she's ahead is false?

"Caucus states don't even report numbers of actual voters."

And you deliberately left out delegates in the title. Seems pretty juvenile to mislead like that.

[Renew Deal]

80. A "virtual tie"

[Dragonfli]

81. A twelve point lead is a "virtual tie" ummm.. okay I guess somewhere in the multiverse.

[MerryBlooms]

23. Clinton should be steamrolling every goddamn state at this point.

She's not, and that's worrisome for folks like me who are Sanders supporters, but will vote for Clinton if she's the nominee.

Clinton was up against a nobody old Jewish Democratic socialist who was supposed to win his home state and maybe one more, then out. Why at this point, is Clinton losing ANY states or splitting delegates? She should be winning every state by a huge majority. I'm worried she's going to get her clock cleaned in the GE.

[pnwmom]

40. No, her strength relative to Bernie has always been among black and Latino voters,

and in primary states.

538 and others predicted his string of wins in the western caucus states.

And now they're predicting she's going to win the larger, diverse, primary states coming up.

[pangaia]

43. Don't worry. She will never make it that far.

Have confidence.

[shenmue]

91. Counting is fun

[dsc]

71. Obama lost states in May and June

and he won by more than any Democrat in my lifetime (I was born in 67)

[MerryBlooms]

73. President Obama is an outstanding politician and I think now

as I did then, Obama has a way about him that instills confidence in voters. He made me want to vote and participate, not just show up.

Man, I'm so going to miss Obama and this First Family when they leave.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

24. Each state has rather weird rules

At my precinct caucus there were 5 delegates at stake. 28 people showed up. 18 were for Sanders and 10 were for Hillary.

Doing the math that would be 3.2 delegates for Sanders and 1.8 for Clinton. But instead of rounding it off 3 delegates for Bernie Sanders and 2 for Hillary Clinton the rules stated each candidate receive their whole numbers while the remaining delegate was given to the candidate that received the most votes overall. So the outcome was 4 delegates for Bernie Sanders only 1 for Hillary Clinton.

My point is the rules as goofy as they seem cut both ways.

[pnwmom]

32. Everything about caucuses is messed up. They should all be tossed out and replaced with primaries.nt

[elleng]

42. Yes, goofy.

[kpola12]

30. Bernie wins the vote 56 to 44 and loses the delegates 7 to 11.

Hillary supporters celebrate. Does Democrat have any relationship to democracy?

[pnwmom]

35. Why does anyone support caucuses? That's what mystifies me. n/t

[Agschmid]

57. Yup.

[Lizzie Poppet]

99. The SDs there that voted against the people need to be hounded out of office.

At least one is an elected official...primary them, relentlessly.

[retrowire]

31. XD nope caucuses suck even when Bernie wins. nt

[Agnosticsherbet]

34. Actually, Clinton won 11 delegates and Sanders 7, according to the link.

Congratulations.

[pnwmom]

36. That link counts super delegates. Without them it's a tie. n/t

[krispos42]

76. You don't win super delegates, just pledged delegates

If 4 of them were super delegates, then Clinton won 7 delegates and tied with Sanders. Four more delegates chose her.

[Agnosticsherbet]

92. With seven delegates, the did better than expected.

And Sanders took less than he needed.
On to New York.

[elleng]

38. Final results, 55% to 44%

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/apr/09/wyoming-democratic-caucus-results-live-polls-election-2016

[mcar]

51. A good showing by HRC

Congrats to her team!

[ronnykmarshall]

55. Caucuses were the voice of We The People just last week ....

Oh dear happened?

The whole process is bullshit. My mom getting even more political this time and asking questions, I used to talk to my step-dad about this stuff ... when I explained the caucus bullshit she said: I'm 76 years old and I would have to go to some place for hours and have some people yell at me for voting for Hillary? Fuck that!

We live in California so thank Flying Spaghetti Monster we don't have to deal with that shit.

If we didn't have primaries in California I would have never been able to vote until 1996. Even then I was working all over the state on assignment from 1997 to 2000.

How is the fair? This bullshit system screws over working class people and older people.

I would LOVE to hear from someone defend this crap.

[Jarqui]

62. Bernie won the day

55.7% Sanders
44.3% Clinton

And from that, Sanders won the state delegates contest:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WY-D

468 Sanders delegates will go to the state convention
372 Clinton delegates will go to the state convention (if they show up)

Saturday 28 May 2016: Second Tier State Convention. 6 of 18 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in proportion to the support each candidate receives at the State Convention. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the statewide level.

6 delegates are to be pledged to presidential contenders based on the support each candidate receives at the State Convention as a whole.
4 at-large National Convention delegates
2 Pledged PLEOs

Hillary has to win three delegates at that meeting. Possible but in the wake of such meetings like Nevada, not a very certain thing. Sanders certainly has the edge.

[pnwmom]

64. Your link shows a state delegate tie, too: 7 to 7.

But whatever happens, face it -- Wyoming is a tiny state. Even if Bernie had been able to get every single delegate, it would be a drop in the bucket.

14 delegates for Wyoming.
247 delegates for New York.

[Jarqui]

68. Like I said, Bernie won the day ... again

[pnwmom]

70. Yeah, we know he does well with white men in small, caucus states.

But there's only one caucus state left.

[Lizzie Poppet]

100. Yah! More Camp Weathervane race-baiting.

You lot have no shame...just like your feculent, corrupt candidate.

[SunSeeker]

65. Woohoo! (But I still don't like caucuses.) nt

[DCBob]

69. This is a good example of why its so difficult for Bernie to catch up.

Math and delegate allocation.

[Alfresco]

72. Great Victory for Hillary! 11 to 7 :-)

[BlueCaliDem]

74. A surprising win for Hillary (although Sanders won the State). 11-7 delegates for Hillary Clinton.

Not something I would've predicted, but what's made my Saturday!

[DesertRat]

75. k&r

[Sheepshank]

78. Well this wasn't the place to catch up anything.

The hated, over used term status quo (with regard to delegate spread) has been maintained.

[NurseJackie]

79. Well ... I've thought about that, and here's what I think ...

[UtahLib]

83. K&R. nt

[Cha]

87. Thank you, pnwmom

[shenmue]

90. Hah!

[Surya Gayatri]

93. But, but, where's that vaunted "Bernmentum"? LOL!

[Vote2016]

106. Hillary cult: "Wyoming was a tie but Hillary WON her homestate of Illinois." You are HILARIOUS!

[StevieM]

114. Bernie won Wyoming but it is worth noting that using the standards asserted by Sanders supporters

in the past we would have to say that he didn't.

But those standards were wrong. So Sanders won.

[pnwmom]

117. In any case, Sanders did nothing to close the gaping gap in delegates between him and Hillary.

On to New York!

[Surya Gayatri]

118. Kick!