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Tue Oct 23, 2012, 06:12 PM

How are Democrats' chances looking of regaining the House and keeping the Senate?

It looks likely that Obama will be re-elected, but I'm curious how the Congressional races are looking this year. I want to see whether Obama will have an easier time getting his agenda through, or if he'll continue to face gridlock for the next 2 years. Does anybody here have some polling that shows some races? Thanks in advance.

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Reply How are Democrats' chances looking of regaining the House and keeping the Senate? (Original post)
Jamaal510 Oct 2012 OP
onehandle Oct 2012 #1
TroyD Oct 2012 #2
sabrina 1 Oct 2012 #3
ProudProgressiveNow Oct 2012 #4
sabrina 1 Oct 2012 #6
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #5
Jamaal510 Oct 2012 #7
Rochester Oct 2012 #8
mary195149 Oct 2012 #9
demvoter4life Oct 2012 #10

Response to Jamaal510 (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 06:14 PM

1. Senate nearly 100%. House? Crapshoot. nt

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Response to Jamaal510 (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 06:14 PM

2. Democrats have about an 87% chance of Winning the Senate

According to Nate Silver's projections.

The House, is basically the reverse.

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Response to Jamaal510 (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 06:21 PM

3. I think it's looking better for the House than it did a few months ago.

It's unlikely considering how many seats we have to win to gain a majority. However, there are several Republican seats that we might be able to take which were not really expected. Iow, they are now in the 'toss-up' rather than firmly R category.

I can think of three off the top of my head. Here in S. Ca, eg, we have a great progressive candidate running against a real right wing Repub for a seat that has been in Republican hands for 25 years and she seems to be doing much better than expected. However it will take a lot of work in the final stages to get here over the top.

In Florida there is another Repub seat in one of most bizarre races so far, which seems to have everything, sex, lies, maybe video tapes and the Repub is being accused of engaging in very dirty tricks to try to defeat the Dem.

Then in the Senate there is the Scott Brown/Elizabeth Warren race. She is currently up 9 points and that is a Republican seat at the moment.

I know there are several others, but those are just the Repub seats that are in trouble that I can think of off the top of my head.

I think we will definitely hold on to the Senate, (which some doubted not so long ago) and being really optimistic I do think we COULD take back Congress, but even if not, I do believe we will increase the number of Dem seats regardless.

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Response to sabrina 1 (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 06:24 PM

4. +1

We may actually pick up a seat or two in Az.

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Response to ProudProgressiveNow (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 06:34 PM

6. I meant to mention Alan Grayson also who looks like he's going to win. He's listed

in the 'leans Dem' category now. Having him back is worth about ten people! Lol!

Here's an election map. Even if we were to win all the toss-ups, we still would not take back the house, however I think it's possible to take some of those 'leans Republican' seats also.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html

I definitely think we will have gains and if we don't do it this time, definitely the next election and hopefully with a landslide.

But I'm going to remain optimistic and say 'I think we could do it this time'.

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Response to Jamaal510 (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 06:24 PM

5. DSB's Odds

Maintaining the Senate -90%
Maintaining the Presidency -70%
Winning the House -5%

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Response to Jamaal510 (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 09:06 PM

7. Judging from these answers, it looks like it's going to be more of the same old same old.

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Response to Jamaal510 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:00 AM

8. Senate is fairly safe. House is a longshot, but not out of reach. But...

...getting a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate doesn't look likely. So don't expect much.

Of course, Harry might go nuclear, but that could come back to bite us in the ass if the R's ever make a comeback.

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Response to Rochester (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:06 AM

9. Harry Reid should change the rules to 50 majority instead of 60.

It's not worth worrying about the Repubs taking over and then the rules have been changed. If they take control, they will change to the 50 majority anyways to get their stuff through.

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Response to Jamaal510 (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:10 AM

10. I think

 

we will take the Senate. I have not seen anything showing the house will gain more then 10 Dem's. IF we Win all the tossups and the house can be democratic controlled.

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