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Tue Apr 12, 2016, 12:55 AM

 

How many registered Democrats in New York state? 5.26 million?

Last edited Tue Apr 12, 2016, 09:55 PM - Edit history (1)

That is doubtless an accurate number, posted below. It is down a bit from the most recent number I had been able to find, which was from 2006 (5.4 million registered Democrats). It is doubtless up from last year, thanks to a surge of new registrations leading up to the March 25 deadline, with 40,000 just in one 10-day period (March 10-20).

The total number of voters in 2008, when New York was rolled into "Super Tuesday" in February: 1.8 million (Clinton 1.07 million, Obama 751 thousand).

This time New York is the only primary on April 19, and the candidates are almost exclusively invested in it, with almost 2 weeks lead time. A media shitstorm is underway and almost everyone thinks this vote is likely to decide a hotly contested fight for the nomination.

Most polls in the contests so far in this primary season have significantly underestimated the results for the insurgent candidacy. Sanders' barnstorming is packing venues and parks in the tens of thousands.

Because of these disparate factors, it would be misguided to pretend any "likely voter" model is particularly likely. Enjoy the uncertainty. Life is better with surprises.

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Arrow 15 replies Author Time Post
Reply How many registered Democrats in New York state? 5.26 million? (Original post)
JackRiddler Apr 2016 OP
CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #1
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #2
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #3
GeorgiaPeanuts Apr 2016 #4
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #5
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #6
nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #7
brooklynite Apr 2016 #8
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #9
brooklynite Apr 2016 #10
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #11
LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #14
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #12
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #13
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #15

Response to JackRiddler (Original post)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 01:08 AM

1. NY Sees 'Unprecedented Surge' in Registration Before Presidential Primary

More than 20,000 first-time voters have registered with New York state in what state officials are calling an "unprecedented surge" of voter interest ahead of the state's April 19 presidential primary.

Nearly 41,000 individuals filed online voter registration applications between March 10th and 20th. The online registration system set a record on Friday with almost 14,000 registration applications received.

More at link; including video
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/New-York-First-Time-Voter-Registration-Surge-373128441.html

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #1)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 01:15 AM

2. Impressive.

 

If 40,000-plus are registering just before the deadline they are bloody well intending to vote. And we know who that surge is going to benefit.

But it's still only a fraction compared to the incredible 5 million (I'm estimating and I think lowballing) eligible to vote in this "closed primary." A relatively small fluctuation compared to the 2008 turnout of 1.8 million could completely overturn expectations in either direction. Many turns that influence the turnout are possible in the next eight days. It's wonderfully unpredictable.

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Response to JackRiddler (Original post)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 10:58 AM

3. Thesis: Peak Clinton in New York was in 2008.

 

What reason is there to believe, and what indicators show, that support for HRC as a presidential candidate, as measured in the absolute number of votes in the New York state Democratic primary, will surpass her 2008 level of 1.07 million? I expect that number to decline, in the belief, first, that those who have become involved since will not break for HRC, and second, that fewer of those who did vote for her then will do so now.

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Response to JackRiddler (Reply #3)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 11:00 AM

4. I've read a lot of people who say she tends to start out with her maximum support due to name rec...

 

After that she only goes down in the polls. I've not looked into how accurate that is though. In the national polls there is some bias because there was a point where Biden was included in a lot of polls and after he signaled she wasn't running she got a Biden bump.

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Response to GeorgiaPeanuts (Reply #4)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 03:11 PM

5. It's hard to see her motivating many new people.

 

But she did start on top, in both runs, so that's always been a problem.

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Response to JackRiddler (Original post)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 08:21 PM

6. bump

 

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Response to JackRiddler (Original post)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 08:42 PM

7. Thanks...

 

this election is very much abnormal. Yesterday at the Cruz rally, before the main event was talking with one of the organizers. She raised a very important point, that applies everywhere. She is happy about it. This election has increased voter participation (on both sides). Well I have said that as well here in the past.

Models for this election are silly. The other reason, the polls do not poll newly registered voters.

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Response to JackRiddler (Original post)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 09:42 PM

8. Answer: 5.268 M as of April 1st.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #8)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 09:56 PM

9. Thanks.

 

So I know for the future, where do you find this? BoE site doesn't allow an easy search for this.

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Response to JackRiddler (Reply #9)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 10:01 PM

10. POLITICAL WIRE sent a mega-spreadsheet to its subscribers.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #10)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 10:47 PM

11. NYS / BOE seems to provide numbers only by county.

 

I wasn't in the mood to add them all up. In any case, resolved and thanks.

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Response to JackRiddler (Reply #11)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 01:22 PM

14. They have totals at the end.

Totals for all counties outside NYC.
Totals for all counties inside NYC.
And statewide total

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Response to JackRiddler (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:05 AM

12. Thesis: Turnout is everything.

 

Never mind the polls, their methods of sampling and likely-voter models. These are based on a history that cannot cover every future outcome. Turnout! Keep calling and mobilizing and talking up the vote!

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Response to JackRiddler (Reply #12)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 12:38 PM

13. Three million calls to New York voters!

 

By Sanders volunteers over the weekend.

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Response to JackRiddler (Original post)

Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:04 PM

15. Damn!

 

What we saw last night was almost exactly the same as the 2008 Clinton-Obama numbers! Indeed, it was peak Clinton in New York already back then! But unfortunately the challenger did no better. Turnout did not increase. (We will see where these big irregularity stories lead, one can't be confident given how consistently elections now go wrong in this country and how consistently nothing is done about it.)

The structural stability on the NY-Democratic side is amazing, I'll have to concede. We don't have a two-party system, we have two single-party systems that hold their own rules-rigged "elections" - and New York may be the worst of it.

These two primary systems determine the choices for everyone and are subsidized by taxes on everyone. There is no justifying a closed system impervious to ideological challenge, that actually has contempt for the outsiders. If New York had been an open, choose your party, same-day registration vote, or a theoretical combined primary, Sanders would have outpaced everyone. And many of you here are proud and thrilled that it's instead this closed, bureaucratic, undemocratic process that benefits career status-quo politicians (and in Albany produces legislatures literally run as single-man empires, even if the emperors sometimes get caught and fall).

The Republican single-party system is in breakdown, but the D's seem to have weathered it this year. I am calling the D's a strong party and that will be taken as praise by many here, but it's not meant that way. A strong nomenklatura (a party machine) that is less popular than ever.

The era since the Clinton ascendancy has been one long decline for the D's - in registered voters, governorships and statehouses, and Congress, in everything except the presidency (which happens despite the farcical nature of the process to involve the most democratic election, you should note). That is because the party no longer believably represents the principles that once made it popular. Organizationally a fortress is no guarantee of victory in November. And of course the party establishment has already conceded Congress until 2022, and made themselves quite comfortable with that idea, so there's even an element of playing to lose rather than allowing change.

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