Nate Silver: Clinton is winning the states that look like the Democratic party

[pnwmom]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-winning-the-states-that-look-like-the-democratic-party/

“Secretary Clinton cleaned our clock in the Deep South, no question about it,” Bernie Sanders said during Thursday night’s Democratic debate in Brooklyn. “That is the most conservative part of this great country,” he continued. “But you know what, we’re out of the Deep South now. And we’re moving up.”

I have a few problems with this line of argument, which seems to imply that Democratic voters in the Deep South don’t reflect the larger Democratic electorate. (The remarks Thursday night echo previous comments made by Sanders and his campaign.) Consider Sanders’s reference to the term “Deep South,” which traditionally describes Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina: These are five of the only six states, along with Maryland, where at least a quarter of the population is black. Given the United States’ history of disenfranchising black voters — not to mention the importance of black voters to Democrats in November — it’s dicey for Sanders to diminish Clinton’s wins there.

But the Deep South isn’t Sanders’s only issue. His problems in the rest of the South are what really dooms him. Clinton’s largest net delegate gains over Sanders came from Texas (+72) and Florida (+68), two states that are within the South as the Census Bureau (and most other people) define it. Clinton also cleaned Sanders’s clock in Virginia and North Carolina. Overall, Clinton gained a net of 155 delegates on Sanders in the five Deep South states, but she also added 211 delegates to her margin in the rest of the region.

SNIP

In addition to being important to the Democratic Party’s electoral present and future, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Texas are quite diverse. They’re diverse ideologically — Miami and Austin aren’t exactly “the most conservative part” of the country — and they’re diverse racially. They contain not only a substantial number of African-Americans but also Hispanics and, increasingly, Asian-American voters.

SNIP

But overall, the math is pretty simple. Sanders is winning states that are much whiter than the Democratic electorate as a whole, Clinton is winning states that are much blacker than the Democratic electorate as a whole, and Clinton is winning most of those states that are somewhere in the middle, whether they’re in the South (like Virginia) or elsewhere (like Ohio or Nevada). That’s why she’ll probably be the Democratic nominee.

[tymorial]

1. I mean no disrespect by this

Look at many posts from last summer and you will see this concept reflected right here on DU. There were many threads about how Democrats from the South were not real Democrats. This was a reaction to the shooting and the outrage over Confederate symbols, and the legacy of slavery.

Given what was happening it was prudent to attack the Confederate Battle Flag, cultural links to the Confederacy and 19th century cultural values. At some point though some of the posts were antagonistic and represented a morally superior attitude towards southern democrats.

[pnwmom]

2. The Confederate battle flag is a separate issue. There aren't many black southerners who support it;

to most it's a slap in the face.

[tymorial]

4. that wasnt the point of my post

I was citing how the argument about the flag became attacking southern democrats.

[kwassa]

20. I never saw such a connection.

The Confederate flag supporters are not Democrats, southern or otherwise.

[geek tragedy]

3. Are you suggesting that attacks on the Dixie Swastika

were an attack on black Southern Democrats?

[mcar]

7. And this southern democrat deeply resented it

The idea that my vote is worth less than is a Utah Democrat's is offensive, illogical and extremely un-progressive.

[BlueMTexpat]

34. I must say that I also resent it

on your behalf. I have the very good fortune to reside in MD. But since we will likely go for Hillary in large margins, MD will also likely go right UTB with the rest of the south.

I was born and raised in MT (slightly more "purple" than red) but since Bernie will likely win there, it will suddenly be viewed as a "worthwhile" state, even though it meets all qualifications but one for a "worthless" southern state. I don't believe that I have to spell out the one.

My grandmother was born and raised in TX before ultimately moving to MT. I think of my grandmother as more the Molly Ivins-Ann Richards-Barbara Jordan type - ALL strong and feisty Texas women. There have also been - and still are - feisty Texan men who are good Dems, notwithstanding all the harm W, Rove, Rick Perry and all the other GOPer nutcases have done to that state's rep.

I don't have family ties to other southern states. But I do have a lot of friends who live in the south: Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, Tennessee, etc. They care about our government every bit as much as I do even when we do not always see eye to eye politically.

Every state's voters count, IMO, no matter what that state's recent GE tradition has been. The idea of we're All in this together is very important. Anyone who tries to divide us in any way should be immediately suspect, IMO. Very little if anything of what such persons have to say is credible in the vibrant, multi-racial, multi-ethnic society that I am proud to belong to.

[mcar]

42. So well said Blue!

Thank you!

[restorefreedom]

5. and yet ironically these states that are so "democratic"

vote overwhelmingly republican in general elections and therefore do us no good for either congress or the presidency....

[pnwmom]

6. For some reason red caucus states are more helpful? Hillary has won many states outside

of the deep south that are critical for a November victory.

[restorefreedom]

8. iowa and ma by a whisker. trump can take those. arizona is under investigation.

ohio and florida were good wins for her. and trump can definitely win both of those states too.

illinois and missouri were close and missouri will be red anyway. illinois will hopefully go dem maybe virginia. but trump has a good chance of winning va

bernie will be strong with indys in swing states and even red states. hillary will get no crossover votes and almost no indys.

she will win the traditionally blue states. but trump can beat her in some of those, too.

ny, ma, nh, pa, nj, i could see all going trump in a ge.

this election is not like any we have had. its not d vs r. its the 99 vs tptb. an outside candidate, from either party, has a huge advantage right off the bat.

[pnwmom]

17. Women hate Trump. If he's the nominee, millions of GOP and Independent women

will flock to Hillary.

And minority voters will also back her. So that leaves Trump with white men. Not enough to win with.

(Romney lost even though he had the majority of white men and white women. You can't win anymore with just white voters.)

[restorefreedom]

30. hillary has no support among young people

they may or may not vote trump, but they won't vote Hillary. they might just stay home.

and gop women will not support her in droves. neither will indy women. they might skip the presidential vote. gop women migt vote trump to keep her out of the wh

millions of people simply do not trust her to run the country. that is not something she can change peoples minds about..its not policy, its character.

[mcar]

9. Florida doesn't

What ever happened to the 50 state strategy? I've been seeing Bernie supporters lament its absence. How do these supporters embrace that strategy while at the same time devalue southern democrats?

[restorefreedom]

11. i have no problem with a 50 state strategy if properly implemented

but stacking the primary with all conservative states at the beginning to favor the estsblishment candidate has to go. its outlived its shelf life with the people.

[mcar]

15. I like the idea of several "super Tuesday's"

3 or 4 or whatever multi-state primaries. Seems like it could shorten this interminable primary season and save some money.

[restorefreedom]

32. i don't mind something like that.

but they would need to be late in the season so the lesser known candidates have time to campaign. i think the idea of a jan or feb contest is insane anyway.

even a national primary day is fine with me if its in my or june

[pnwmom]

21. Guess you missed the first two very unrepresentative states: N.H. and Iowa.

At least the other states reflect America in its diversity.

[restorefreedom]

31. two states out of how many at the beginning? nt

[UMTerp01]

13. Just like Wyoming, NE, North and South Dakota do nt

[restorefreedom]

29. they both won red states

but that is her strength, she is very weak elsewhere. he is stronger elsewhere where we can pickmup r and indy votes.,she won't get those votes

[UMTerp01]

33. Reliably blue states don't matter either

Reliably blue states are going to go to whoever gets the nomination; Bernie or Hillary. Its Ohio, Florida, PA, VA, Wisconsin. People are making more of this than it actually is. His red states aren't going blue and neither are hers. Its the tossups, like every other election recently that count.

[restorefreedom]

36. except that trump has a real chance to scoop up a few states

we think may be off limits. he will appeal to many white working class men and some women in states like the northeast which are usually reliably blue. he will also have a huge advantage over hillary in the industrial midwest states where many jobs have been lost to "free trade"

[UMTerp01]

38. According to what receipts?

Where has it been shown he will be at risk to take a reliably blue state?

[restorefreedom]

41. its an opinion based on observation

i haven't looked for a poll if that is what you are talking about. i just looked at his wins vs hers in blue states

nh trump won big, clinton lost big
ma trump won huge, clinton basically tied
vermont trump won big, clinton lost huge
virginia they both won well but if it leans conservative that is advantage trump
michigan trump won big, clinton lost
missouri trump won big clinton barely won
illinois he won by a much bigger margin than she did
hawaii she got trounced and it is a very blue state

his record in blue or purple states is much better than hers. add to that he can get indy and dem crossovers and she will not get any gop crossovers and very few indys. add to that the progressives who will leave blank or vote stein, the lingering questions about the fbi investigation and her trustworthiness.

and to top it all off, trump will release her speech transcripts if she doesn't. he hasnt even gone after her yet.

this election is not like any other. it is not d v r. it is 99 vs tptb. typical election analysis is being turned on its head. he will take blue and purple states if she is the nom

[jfern]

10. Nate Silver said Trump was going to crash and burn 6 months ago

He's a hack who has been ridiculously wrong. he's approaching Dick Morris levels.

[UMTerp01]

12. In all fairness, a lot of people said that about Donald Trump

Doesn't make what Nate Silver said about THIS PARTICULAR ISSUE untrue.

[jfern]

18. Nate Silver might want to check the delegate counts from blue Obama 2012 states

Bernie actually has more of them than Hillary. Epic fail for Nate Silver.

[pnwmom]

22. Maybe you should check the vote count. Mitt carried both white men and white women.

But President Obama won the election handily.

[jfern]

27. This has nothing to do with that

[pnwmom]

28. Of course it doesn't. n/t

[sadoldgirl]

14. Yea, MN never goes to the Dems.

[KingFlorez]

16. Democrats do matter

No candidate is going to win the Democratic primary off of independents and disaffected Republicans.

[Gothmog]

19. Nate is correct in his analysis

[Number23]

23. Booyah.

K&R

[Lucinda]

24. KNR

[mhatrw]

25. Yeah. Alabama and Mississippi.

[Iliyah]

26. The Democratic Party is very diversed.

To constantly down grade AA's votes from the South is sickening.

[uponit7771]

35. Democrats love diversity...

[Jamaal510]

37. K&R

[Cha]

39. Why yes she is!

[Eric J in MN]

40. Bernie Sanders' point was that while he's trailing, he's hoping to better

...in upcoming contests

Nate Silver is creating a strawman with "seems to imply that Democratic voters in the Deep South don’t reflect the larger Democratic electorate."

Sanders was implying that New York is different from South Carolina and he hopes to do better in New York.

[reformist2]

43. It's this kind of tortured logic that proves Mr. 538 is in the tank for Hillary.

It totally glosses over the fact that most of Hillary's biggest victories - were in states where Democrats never win. In the tossup states, many of which "look like" the Democratic Party, Hillary has done ok, but Bernie has done better.

But back to his main point, is 538 really trying to say that Florida and Georgia look more like the Democratic Party than say, Michigan and Colorado? When you really get down to it, it makes no sense, and is even a bit insulting.