Why Bernie's New York loss was a turning point in viability.

[morningfog]

There is no denying New York was a big loss. It increased his needed pull form remaining pledged delegates to 58.6%. It stopped his good run of wins and chipping away at Hillary's lead. It turned him from "viable but huge long shot," to "ain't gonna happen."

It also suggests he is in for more losses on Tuesday, when more eastern seaboard states vote.

There are 384 delegates up for grabs in Tuesday. Here is the math looking forward.

If he breaks even on Tuesday in all five states (CT, DE, MD, PA, RI), 50% split of the delegates with Hillary, he would need 61.7% of the remaining pledged delegates to reach 2,026. While there are some favorable states after Tuesday, 61.7% is not going to happen.

50% split on Tuesday is also not going to happen, either.

I still support him staying in, pushing his message, pushing Hillary towards it and bringing in voters in the remaining states. But, Bernie is an intelligent guy. He knows the score. He has already tipped us -- he is going to remain in the Democratic Party and support the nominee. No spoiler, no third party, not even a return to independent democratic socialist.

And I think he deserves all of our respect. He has changed the Democratic Party. He has changed the conversation. He has brought in new voters and new interest into the process. And he isn't finished.

[nc4bo]

1. Wonder how all those purged voters may have changed the outcome? Don't you wonder, at all?

I know I do.

[NorthCarolina]

2. I don't wonder, I know.

It's obvious.

[OKNancy]

5. no, it wouldn't matter at all

1. all states purge voters who haven't voted in so many years.
2. what makes you think every single one off the rolls were Bernie people? Statistically, given the overwhelming vote for Hillary, that is highly unlikely.
3. There were not enough to change the outcome anyway.

----
Not to say there should not be a better way, but as far as NY is concerned, it's a non-controversy.

[Punkingal]

6. I don't care who they would have voted for...it's still an outrage.

Voting should be the easiest thing we do in this country.

[auntpurl]

12. Absolutely, but

the original question was would it have changed the outcome? I agree with the above poster; the Brooklyn votes were more likely to go to Hillary than Bernie, anyway.

[nc4bo]

11. ....that wasn't all that happened in NY. Someone(s) had an itchy, overly ambitious trigger finger.

It effected thousands upon thousands of voters.

Still under investigation, at least I hope so.

[oberliner]

9. Most of them were most likely Hillary voters

So it probably would have increased her margin of victory in the state.

[nc4bo]

13. We will never know now will we? How sad. nt

[oberliner]

15. You're right

It is pathetic in this day and age in the US that there are still problems with voting like this.

[nc4bo]

17. Yet we preach to other countries about democratic elections. The hypocrisy is astounding. nt

[oberliner]

19. A lot of other countries are even worse

But we definitely ought to get our own house in order on this score.

[morningfog]

16. Sure, but it wouldn't flip to state or change the delegate count much, regardless.

[pnwmom]

29. They wouldn't have changed the outcome except to increase Hillary's lead.

ALL the NYC boroughs, including Brooklyn, were strongholds for her. Now, if 100,000 votes from rural, upstate NY -- the area where Bernie got most of his votes -- had been made to disappear, wouldn't you be insisting that Bernie had been wrongly deprived of votes?

As it is, her lead in NY overall was so strong that even in the extremely odd case that all of the purged votes were Bernie supporters, she still would have had a big win in NY.

As it is, we're lucky that the Rethug at the bottom of this has been suspended. Hopefully something like this won't be repeated in the General.

[Katashi_itto]

3. At least they worked most of the bugs out of the election rigging. November should be interesting.

Between that and the voter purges. It saves me from bothering to vote.

[auntpurl]

4. Good post.

One question: why do you think he will remain a Democrat? He's already registered for the Senate as an Independent again.

[morningfog]

10. He said he would. I don't know, but suspect it is due to some discussions with the DNC.

[peace13]

7. The fact is that the vote has not been certified yet.

[UMTerp01]

8. Al true which is why his role can be so much more impactful than US Senator

Granted being a US Senator is very impactful in itself but he has created a coalition that can't be denied and he has changed the conversation. The party is now more liberal and I think he has to continue harnessing the Bernie coalition and stay engaged with them on social media for other political issues. Ok he probably won't get the nomination but it doesn't mean that you can't hold Hillary's feet to the fire and make her tenure hell (if she wins the presidency) if she acts like she's going to flop on issues she's talking about now in the primary. The game is not over. This is a big part of the battle but its not the end of the war. The war doesn't end with the primary season. He started something and his supporters have started something. Now its up to him and all of his supporters to continue it. Make sure to elect progressive in their home states and stay engaged with the process. Get progressive bills passed and progressive judges on the bench and lets start flipping some of these Republican governorships and legislatures blue.

[Loudestlib]

21. Ohh look a shiny, new account.

[djean111]

14. If Hillary is the nominee, I am finished with the Democratic Party.

Because war and fracking and the TPP and regime change and corrupt arms deals and crushing student debt and Third Way slashing at Social Security and adding more restrictions to abortion, just to name a few of Hillary's stances, are actually GOP values. So obviously, I don't/can't get behind GOP values. If that is what the Democratic Party stands for now, I am out.

[jcgoldie]

18. good post

I support Clinton but I agree he should stay in and keep the democratic race in the news and also to maximize his affect on the platform at the convention and speak to voters in remaining states. I'd like to see the vitriol of candidates and their supporters attacking each other abated and I do think that's what we will see going forward. I think Bernie has class and he will wrap this up with dignity despite some of the nonsense Weaver was spouting post NY.

[griffi94]

20. I agree with all of that except for 1 small point

Bernie hasn't changed the Democratic party. Yet.

He's in an excellent position to pull the party left for the next 10 years.
It's going to depend on what he does next with regards to his younger supporters
and the Democratic Party in general

If he stays fiercly engaged and continues to cultivate the millinials to get involved and stay involved
then the party, the country, and the people will be vastly better off in 10 years.

I really expect Bernie to do this.

I'm a little less certain about his supporters.
Youthful anger and outrage isn't anything new.
Sadly youthful apathy isn't anything new either.

It's my sincere hope that Bernies voters stay involved with the party and the process,
work to get their issues enshrined and get out and vote,
then yes Bernie will have changed the Democratic Party.

What happens next will determine whether his revolution is going to bring permanant improvement
or just be a brief angry blip.

[mythology]

23. I would add that he and his supporters need to get

People elected. I know he's supporting a few running for the House, but I think he/they also need to find people to support at the local and state level. Not just because it's easier and cheaper to get elected there, but because it would have the opportunity to create a bench of future candidates.

There's no reason that in at least some of the states he's done very well in that they couldn't flip some positions.

[griffi94]

24. Exactly

Surging large but not large enough numbers behind their perfect but unelectable
candidate every 4 - 8 years isn't really a movement or a revolution
it's more of of a loud protest.

[GreenPartyVoter]

27. How long have middle-aged sellouts been around? Why is this all on the kids?

[griffi94]

33. It's always been all on the kids

In the 60s it was the never trust anybody over 30 crowd.

Then they grew up and gave Reagan a 49 state blowout win
in 84.

Youth is often angry. They want it...right now.
Then they start dealing with real life.
Jobs kids family bills and then they get more pragmatic.

[GreenPartyVoter]

36. There's pragmatic, and then there's giving away the whole store before

negotiations even begin. I've noticed this as a trend for quite some time in the grown up, pragmatic Third Way Conservative Dems. The kids will do what they can but the elders need to straighten out and fly right for it to really make a difference. This is an all hands on deck kind of situation we have here. We can't afford to muddle along as we have always done in the past, not with the world on fire the way it is.

[griffi94]

38. Then the revolution

needs to start at the bottom.
Get their candidates elected to local and state level positions, build the coalitions and alliances
and then run for national office from a position of broad strength and optimism.

Like Hillary is doing.

Barnstorming onto the national stage on a wave of anger isn't going to work for very long.

Bernie has had 25 years to build this revolution from the ground up
he didn't start until last year tho.
So now he's really ill prepared to do much more than say the same few talking points over and over
like a 2 note piano.

Hillary has been preparing for years.
She knew what it was going to take and she built her machine.

So he has the hardcore progressives and the angry youth vote.

He does less well with all other demographics and he has no base of support
in the party to work from.

Team Bernie wants it all their way right now. That's not going to happen.

[GreenPartyVoter]

39. Yes, that's the answer to our immediate and looming destruction,

spend (more) decades trying to build from the ground up. We don't frigging have time. Not we Berners, but we humans! It is too damn late for incrementalism. Catastrophic Climate Change isn't off in the distant future, it is here now and breathing down all our necks, young and old, progressive and pragmatic alike.

[rjsquirrel]

41. The kids don't vote eom

[Alfresco]

22. K&R

[Lizzie Poppet]

25. I can't imagine caring about "pushing Hillary" to the left.

It's not like it wouldn't be all show, and that she isn't going to lurch hard right if/when she locks up the nomination. T raised: he's changed the conversation forever. If, as I suspect will be the case, the party (stupidly) decides to nominate the ultimate insider, status-quo candidate in this "year of the outsider," then the combination of Bernie's (and #OWS's) groundwork and a crushing loss in the GE will not only constitute the beginning of real change, it'll also mark the beginning of the end for the Democratic Party. Blowing off the progressive agenda will at last come home to roost.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Most if not all of his goals are worthy

Most if not all of his goals are worthy. The debate has always been on what is the most realistic path to get there

[NCTraveler]

28. Great op. Enjoyed reading it. I believe we changed Sander for the better as well.

I truly believe, because of who Sanders is, we are all going to come out in a better position. Only time will tell.

[pnwmom]

30. Thank you for this, morningfog. I agree he deserves our respect for coming this far

and for changing the conversation.

[JSup]

31. Thank you for...

...your honest, unbiased and obviously heartfelt opinion.

[Tarc]

32. I'm mostly fine with Bernie the person

It's a handful of his supporters that have dragged him down.

The general election will be a blast if he actually goes out and stumps for Hillary, the Trumpites won't know what do do, facing the both of them.

[brush]

34. Did you hear what David Plouffe said yesterday about the Sanders Campaign?

He gently suggested that Bernie needs to really sit down and re-access the continue appeal for funds from his supporters because to continue that while knowing there is no real path to getting the nomination is fraud.

[Autumn]

35. He cannot push Hillary towards his message, their messages go in different directions.

I agree that he has brought in new voters and new interest into the process, but not into the democratic party.

[jwirr]

37. And this time it differences are regarding vital issues: Climate

Change, ending corporate rule, BLM, keeping social security alive, etc. None of us can afford to follow her down her road. She offers us nothing.

[DCBob]

40. +1