Bernie doesn't need to win every stake by 58%

[Csainvestor]

He just needs to win a landslide here and there. He would probably win a landslide in Oregon Kentucky. Indiana should be very good to him as well. he can cut her lead in half because then we have a Puerto Rico caucus, he should win big there as well.

Bernie may very well win every single state in the West.
Landslides are not rare, we've seen plenty the cycle and there will be more going forward.

This is the 538 lie, they pretend landslides are rare,
But we've seen multiple this cycle alone, once Bernie wins one or two Landslide victories things will get interesting.

[UMTerp01]

1. Raise your hand if you have an economics degree

Cuz I'm going with the guy (Nate Silver) that does have one

[Bluenorthwest]

18. Donald Trump has a degree in economics from Wharton. So Don's raising his hand for you.

nt

[UMTerp01]

36. Is Donald Trump making the argument or are you? nt

[Funtatlaguy]

51. Yes, but does he have a degree from

Trump University?

[k8conant]

53. What does that have to do with mathematics?

or political science?

[randome]

2. But you're talking about a 'landslide of landslides'.

Your odds would be better at flipping a coin and betting it will stand on edge.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A ton of bricks, a ton of feathers, it's still gonna hurt.[/center][/font][hr]

[Csainvestor]

5. Not true.

OR and KY should be landslides for Bernie. IN is open and Puerto Rico is a caucus.

For those that follow Sports, Nate is trying to pretend he needs to win every single game by 8 points, we all know that's almost impossible, but that isn't what Bernie has to do. Oregon will be a massive victory for him and that will cut her lead. Pretend it's one game with plenty of time left on the clock.

[Tarc]

34. Lol, Sanders is gonig to get creamed in PR, which is an open primary, not a caucus.

Sanders does not do well with Latino voters.

[Codeine]

42. Pretty sure it's a caucus for the Dems in PR.

I still don't see Bernie winning there, however.

[Tarc]

48. Ahh, I see. The listing is confusing

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/PR-D lists it as

Delegate Selection: Proportional Caucus/Convention
Voter Eligibility: Open Primary

[k8conant]

55. or a season with multiple games

(with weighted results).

[LiberalFighter]

74. If it is a landslide for Sanders by getting 99 of the 116 delegates

And primaries were held right now. Sanders would still need to get over 56% of the 1,284 delegates remaining

[morningfog]

3. Show me how. Use the numbers, because I don't think you can make it out.

A landslide in OR, KY and IN would not get him there.

[Csainvestor]

7. You think hillz wins the west country going forward?

He should win the rest of the West.

She will have a tiny lead and then it's up to CA

[morningfog]

8. No, I don't. But show me the numbers.

You have to use numbers to back up your claim or you won't be taken seriously. You've suggested a few states with landslides and that Bernie will do well in the west. Okay. But what numbers and how about Tuesday?

[Csainvestor]

12. He will cut her lead by 120 points

He will do it with just 4 contests. IN OR KY and Puerto Rico.

120 minimum. He could cut her lead by more than that.

[LanternWaste]

35. I think you're confusing a studied analysis of the numbers with simple prophecy.

I think you're confusing a studied analysis of the numbers with simple prophecy.

[morningfog]

39. I don't see how. Show me the numbers.

What percentage in each state?

And that assumes he loses no ground Tuesday.

[Csainvestor]

40. How many times do i have to say it

These 4 contests will be huge victories for Bernie.
He gained 50 points more than hills in WA alone.

[TeacherB87]

46. It seems like you are confusing his percentage margin of victory with delegates.

Yes, Bernie won like 75% to 25% for Hillary in Washington State, but Washington state only has 34 delegates and he only netted 14 from there. Furthermore, Oregon is the only one of those states where Bernie has a clear chance at a landslide. I implore you to show me evidence that proves the contrary. Indiana and Kentucky will not be landslides for Bernie because Hillary has done well in similar states. His best case scenario in both is to break even which doesn't close the delegate gap. Bernie winning Puerto Rico is an even more absurd concept because of his performance with Latinos in most part of the country (it's been piss poor). I would love for Bernie to have beaten her, and I voted for him, but I see no reasons in any of these posts to justify hope that he can still pull it off. No, he doesn't have to win each state by 16%, but he does not have enough landslide-friendly states left to make that not necessary.

[Hav]

80. Bernie actually gained almost 50 delegates there

http://demrace.com/

[LiberalFighter]

78. Indiana, Kentucky, Oregon, and Puerto Rico have 259 combined delegates.

Sanders would need to get over 189 of those 259 delegates to get a 120 delegate advantage. That is over 72% needed.

Indiana is likely not more than 60-40 or net about 17. Recent poll shows Hillary ahead with margin of error just over 4. Sanders might beat Hillary by 1 to 3 points.

That leaves 176 for the 3 states and 103 net delegates needed. Need to win over 139 delegates at this time to net 103 or over 78%.

Sanders would be lucky to tie. Split the difference as a tie and still need 103 with only 121 up for grabs in Oregon and Puerto Rico. 85% from these two elections is not going to happen.

It keeps getting worse.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Sanders might get a landslide in OR. As of today IN and KY are pushes or lean Clinton.

[Csainvestor]

41. No polling in KY

Demos heavily favor Bernie in KY. Do your homework.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Maybe.

Maybe you should "do your homework"

As I said while there is a paucity of polling in KY and IN there are models that point to a loss for the Vermont independent in Kentucky and Indiana:


http://www.bing.com/search?q=Election+2016+Primaries&p1=%5BFUI+els%3D%22Primaries%22%5D&FORM=ELHEAD&ajax=ElectionsBPI&axID=28&pIG=0F2124BA3B8F43A7B2F99080BEBD8E98



At this point the Vermont independent is getting his bell rung. It's like watching the wings being pulled off a butterfly.

[TeacherB87]

47. Correct!

Finally someone who is paying attention to facts and not wishful thinking.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. Teacher, I let the facts lead me. I think with my head and hope with my heart.

He will have a yuge win in OR, probably 2-1, but is either a push or behind in KY and IN.

[TeacherB87]

52. Unfortunately there is too little of that going around in these forums from Pro-Bernie people.

It's kind of demeaning how much my fellow Sandernistas are grasping at straws at this point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. Teacher, it is what it is.

I follow the data.

My other passion is sports. There are certain teams I am passionate about but reason prevents me from believing they are capable of achieving more than what they are actually capable of achieving.

[bjobotts]

58. Principles before personalities. Facts are not attacks unless they are twisted.

[TeacherB87]

59. In a world in which basic facts are, however illogically, debated as if they're not facts

they can certainly be attacks. Because factual evidence is perceived as an attack by illogical people and conspiracy theorists. If we were talking about a factual vs. factual exposition then no, facts would not be perceived as attacks by anyone involved.

[LiberalFighter]

77. You are right.

Especially considering that landslides are not likely to happen in any of those states.
Kentucky is a closed primary I doubt based on current polling will go Sanders.
Indiana is an open primary. The first poll released today shows Hillary ahead but could go either way due to the margin of error.
Oregon is a closed primary. There does not appear to be any data for Oregon yet. Possibly favors Sanders. But not a landslide.

[jcgoldie]

4. Landslides going forward

Not very likely for either candidate outside very small caucus states.

[firebrand80]

6. Landslides were in small caucus states

That Hillary didn't compete in at all

Indiana is likely to be similar to the states around it: IL, OH, WI, MI, MO; not a landslide. Ditto with KY.

Bernie will in all likelihood win Oregon big. But Hillary could cut his margin by spending some money there, but I doubt she'll have to.

I don't know what to think of Puerto Rico, I'm not sure what you're basing your opinion on.

Also, you analysis would assume that he keeps it close on Tuesday. A few of those states might be close, but PA is probably worse for Bernie than OH, and MD is worse for him than PA. I'm thinking conservatively Hillary +10 in OH and +15 in MD.

Don't forget the DC primary is still coming up, which will be Hillary +25 or so.

[Csainvestor]

9. WA not small

You may think Hillary is going to win to the Dakota's and the rest of the West.I doubt it. she's not going to take the rough wild west states this time around.

[firebrand80]

25. Bernie will win the rest of the Mountain West big

But there aren't enough delegates there for it to make much of a difference. His "7 out of 8 momentum" didn't make a bit of difference because Hillary's AZ win more than compensated for the 7 losses.

[TeacherB87]

50. Washington is medium at best with 34 pledged delegates.

When you say "this time around" it implies that she won these wild west states last time. But she didn't, if I recall correctly she only one one of the Dakotas. She doesn't need to win any of the small-population western states, including Oregon, to beat Sanders. She doesn't even have to win more than 42% of the vote in any of the BIG states remaining but she will win far more than that in several (strong majorities likely in MD, PA, NJ and CA. Where do his delegates come from? The math makes no sense for Bernie at this point. I wish it weren't so, but its the mathematical truth.

[morningfog]

10. PR is Hillary territory, name recognition.

[Bluenorthwest]

22. Oklahoma is in the middle of the population range of the States. Not small. Medium.

nt

[Stuckinthebush]

11. I'll play

Let's say he gets ALL of the votes from KY, IN, and OR (unlikely but let's do it).

And let's say he gets at least half of the votes from other states - I'll even give him the edge on states with odd number of delegates.

Then this is where we stand with pledged delegates only:

[IMG][/IMG]

She will have 2024 and he will have 1955 pledged delegates. Still a 69 point pledged delegate deficit for Sanders.

This doesn't count the unpledged of which Hillary has a massive lead.

It also assumes a break even across all other races and he STILL won't have a majority of pledged.

The math doesn't work.

[Csainvestor]

14. It will come down to CA

My point is this. Her lead will be tiny.

[Stuckinthebush]

23. So?

While I disagree that her lead will be tiny it doesn't matter.

The supers have thrown their support to her by a 9 to 1 margin and the likelihood of them changing over a tiny Sanders deficit is very small.

He would have to landslide ALL the remaining contests to the point of receiving all of the remaining delegates for that to happen. We all know that won't happen.

It's over.

[Csainvestor]

24. Her lead will be next to nothing.

He can make a case to supers if her lead is minimal

[Stuckinthebush]

31. Ok....this is tiresome, so ok

Yes.

1 - If he wins ALL of the delegates in OR, IN and KY

and

2 - If he splits 50/50 the remaining races is all of the other states

and

3 - If he gets 100 more delegates in CA than her

and

4 - If he can convince half of the supers to abandon Hillary for him

Then he wins. OK.


Meanwhile I hope Hillary is preparing for the General Election because that string of necessities is improbable.

[firebrand80]

69. So you're saying he has a chance nt

[Stuckinthebush]

73. Ok that made me guffaw!

Thanks for that!

[brooklynite]

72. What case will he make?

These are political professionals; they won't be impressed by the "Sanders wins head to head polls" argument that the amateurs here like to trumpet. They won't be impressed by nine months of beating up on Superdelegates. And they won't be impressed by someone who's not doing anything to help the Party financially.

[randome]

16. Actually a 69 pledged delegate deficit, but your point is valid.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]A ton of bricks, a ton of feathers, it's still gonna hurt.[/center][/font][hr]

[Stuckinthebush]

20. Oops. Yes, you are correct

I'll change it now.

[PowerToThePeople]

21. He could get well over +100 in Cali alone.

Just has to whittle it down until then.

[Stuckinthebush]

26. But the point is that even that won't give him the edge

The estimates in the chart above are based on giving him ALL of the delegates in KY, IN and OR which realistically won't happen, AND giving him a 50/50 split in the remaining states which we know won't happen.

The only way to do this is through wishful thinking or a miracle - which won't happen.

I understand the desire to look at the possibilities but the probabilities are against him. Next Tuesday those probabilities get even smaller because he won't split the states on the 26th per the polling.

It's done. Really.

[PowerToThePeople]

33. That may be true.

If so, I will stop posting here for 6 months and work for what I need to work for.

HRC does not represent my concerns for this Nation. She will get nothing from me.

[Stuckinthebush]

37. Fair enough

But that doesn't change the probabilities.

You will do what you feel is necessary for you. That will entail determining if you wish to support the Dem nominee who will be Hillary, voting GOP, not voting, or writing in a vote.

Your call.

[firebrand80]

29. He's going to lose more ground on Tuesday

There aren't many whittling opportunities left

[k8conant]

60. What about ND, SD, MT, NM, and WV?

I saw an old poll for NM that shows Clinton up, but WV is 60%+ for Sanders. (We vote May 10).

I didn't see any polls for ND, SD and MT.

[Stuckinthebush]

64. Could be that he wins one or more of those

But, again, the projections in that chart show him winning ALL the votes in OR, IN, and KY. That won't happen.

The point is that even with overwhelming wins in some of the remaining states and ties in all the others (which won't happen) he is still behind in the delegate count - pledged and unpledged.

He has run out of road.

[firebrand80]

70. and Poland! nt

[LiberalFighter]

79. So that is how they figured they will win.

How many delegates will they get out of Poland?

[oberliner]

13. He really needed to win NY

Unless he flips the script with the states on Tuesday, he is done.

[Csainvestor]

17. No. He really needs to win CA

And he needs to win big in remaining states I mentioned.

[oberliner]

28. It won't matter if he doesn't win big on Tuesday

He can't afford to lose the whole eastern seaboard.

[snooper2]

15. you are correct, he only needs a couple stakes, or was it

steaks?




LOL

[randome]

19. He's already well-done.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]A ton of bricks, a ton of feathers, it's still gonna hurt.[/center][/font][hr]

[mythology]

30. Whatever lie let's you sleep at night

[Tarc]

32. Once again, a #berniemath fail

When people say he needs 58%, they are talking about the average needed. The true hurdle comes in every state that he does not hit 58% in, as that increases the burden on the ones remaining.

All you've really offered in these content-free threads of the past few days is simplistic "BERNIE'S GONNA WIN YUUUUGE!" cheer-leading tripe. No actual analysis, no citations of polls or trends, just personal twitter/blog-like statements of opinion.

Especially laughable ar the claims Sanders can carry states by 75-85...eighty-flippin-five...percent.

[firebrand80]

38. What's the absolute best he could do in CA?

55?

[oasis]

44. The "Dream" Weaver/Tad "Devine" calculations.

[KingFlorez]

43. You keep posting the same thread

[Codeine]

56. . . .

[JoePhilly]

62. Yea, but he changes the words around.

So its like totally new.

[TeacherB87]

54. Where are these states in which he will win landslides?

They are all small western states from here on out. He's not going to win landslides in any of the large states left, there's no evidence to support any other conclusion at this point.

[k8conant]

63. I guess we'll just have to wait to see then. n/t

[TeacherB87]

65. That is a very logical conclusion to the overall conversation topic.

I wish more people would come to this conclusions so we wouldn't have to debate in circles on this site all the time.

[firebrand80]

67. OP says IN & KY nt

[TeacherB87]

71. I get that this is what the OP is saying but...

there is no factual basis for the idea that he will earn landslides in those states. All of the evidence points to a 50-50 split at best for Bernie in both states.

[jg10003]

61. Bernie needs 58.6% of all remaining delegates, that's not the same as 58.6% in each state.

[firebrand80]

66. Probably over 60 by next week nt

[brooklynite]

68. But it IS approximately 58.6% of the BIG States that will make a difference...

Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, California. He's not only not hitting the targets, he's behind in ALL of them; underperform in any one and your percentage target in the remaining ones shoots up.

[Adrahil]

75. "538 lie"

538 doesn't actually say that at ALL. If you read their articles, you would know that. He needs 59% of the remaining delegates. If you look at their targets, they recognize that he would do better in some states than others.

But here's the problem.... Bernie's landlsides tend to happen in smaller states. And losing a single big state like New York can actually counter big wins for Bernie in several smaller states. There aren't that many big delegate states left. Pennsylvania, Maryland, California, and New Jersey are really the only "big haul" states left (maybe Indiana in there too). Right now, Clinton leads in all those, except Indiana (no polling there). So where are Bernie's game-changing landslides going to come from?

[Renew Deal]

76. I love your enthusiasm

Just keep in mind that things may not go the way you think.

[PooleBowman]

81. Yes, he does

Sen. Sanders cannot possibly win the nomination.
Super-delegates are Democratic elected officials, long-time Party members and very committed supporters of the DNC. They have a vested interest in the Party and Sec. Clinton who has devoted blood, sweat and tears to the Party for over 40 years. Sen. Sanders is not a Democrat, and he has stated several times since Tuesday that his main mission is to lead a hostile takeover of the established Democratic Party, not to defeat Trump or Cruz and other GOP down-ballot candidates.
Second, Sec. Clinton currently has earned a total popular vote of 10,404,655 and Sen. Sanders has earned 7,710,382. Again, he cannot possibly win by sufficient margins to make up the deficit of 2,694.273.
Therefore, it’s delusional to think that any of Sec. Clinton's 502 super-delegates are going to switch to Sen. Sanders.
Also, the arithmetic, per the absolutely minimalist case for Sec. Clinton, shows that she will win the nomination easily by June 14.
There are 1,404 pledged delegates yet to be earned of a total of 4,050 and 172 super-delegates yet to be awarded of a total of 715.
Sec. Clinton has 1,446 pledged delegates and 502 super-delegates. She needs 435 (30.9829% of the pledged delegates yet to be rewarded) pledged delegates to clinch the nomination, assuming she is awarded no additional super-delegates, for a grand total of 2,383 delegates. She has earned 54.6485% of the available pledged delegates through April 19.
Sen. Sanders has 1,200 pledged delegates and 41 super-delegates. Assuming he earns the remaining 969 pledged delegates and the remaining 172 super-delegates, he will have a grand total of 2,382 delegates. He has won 45.3515% of the available pledged delegates through April 19.
Therefore, she needs to earn an average of only 30.9829% for each of the remaining primaries/caucuses to earn 435 pledged delegates and win the nomination.
In other words, Sec. Clinton can win the nomination with an average of only 30.9829% for each primary/caucus, which means that Sen. Sanders must win each primary/caucus by an absurd average of greater than 69.0171%.
Note: There are only three caucuses remaining: Guam - closed caucus (7), North Dakota - open caucus (18) and the Virgin Islands - closed caucus (7). and only three open primaries: Indiana (83), Montana (21) and Puerto Rico (60). The total for all six open primaries and caucuses is 196. Sec. Clinton currently leads by 246 pledged delegates.
There is no rational scenario which enables Sen. Sanders to become the nominee either by winning pledged delegates or by persuading super-delegates to switch from Sec. Clinton before, or at, the Democratic convention as of July 25. There is simply no “path to the nomination”.
By continuing his campaign of increasingly shrill and hateful over-the-top personal attacks of lies, slander and dehumanization, he is damaging the Democratic Party, Sec. Clinton's general election campaign against He, Trump or Second Coming Cruz and Sen. Sanders’ desired legacy of a future meaningful progressive movement. He’s losing current and potential Democratic Party allies every day.