Request: show the math supporting Sanders' path to 2,384 or 2,026 delegates

[Tarc]

2,384 is what is needed to secure the nomination overall, while 2,026 is the majority of pledged delegates.

We've seen some pretty wild claims in the past few days regarding Sanders getting landslides...or even 85% shutouts...in some upcoming states. I'd think we'd all be interested in seeing the math behind the claims that he can still win a majority of the pledged delegates, so let's see it.

http://demrace.com

Nice site with sliders and easy-to-adjust numbers and such. It will even let you save your results to post here.

Mine: http://DemRace.com/?share=i2gFDjEe

Strong showings in the Mid-Atlantic and the remaining New England States, large Latino and African-American populations in Puerto Rico and Washington Dc respectively. Also in California where Sanders will make a good showing but simply doesn't have the ground game for sufficient outreach millions of voters. Clinton goes into the convention with 2,185, a +319 advantage.

18 votes, 1 pass | Time left: Time expired
	Sanders can win 2,384 pledged delegates, and not need the superdelegates
	0 (0%)
	Sanders can win 2,026 pledged delegates, needs the superdelegates to hit 2,384
	3 (17%)
	Clinton can win 2,384 pledged delegates, and not need the superdelegates
	0 (0%)
	Clinton can win 2,026 pledged delegates, needs the superdelegates to hit 2,384
	7 (39%)
	Sanders will drop out sometime between April 26th and July 25th, rendering this moot
	7 (39%)
	Clinton will drop out sometime between April 26th and July 25th, rendering this moot
	1 (6%)
	Other
	0 (0%)
	1 DU member did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[WhenTheLeveeBreaks]

1. I'll give it a shot

Hillary is indicted or the FBI recommends indictment buy it stops there or the FBI doesn't recommend an indictment but a slew of FBI agents resign and head for the cameras or Hillary is indicted and Obama pardons her or ...

Then the convention happens and Hillary is out of the running and all of her delegates are free agents (whatever that number is). Bernie has his pledged delegates (whatever that number is).

So now the free agent delegates and the super delegates must choose between Bernie and Biden/Warren/Kerry/etc.

Bernie may not get to 2384 but then again he may.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. This is the second time today you invoked the Indictment Fairy

Rumor has it that if you write out an indictment, put it under your pillow, in the morning we will be seeing Secretary Clinton in a perp walk.

[WhenTheLeveeBreaks]

10. The OP asked for a path

My post describes the path.

Obviously you and I understand the situation quite differently. What you call the "indictment fairy" I would call the "nothing to see here fairy".

Time will tell.

To stay abreast of the actual developments however I would not rely on pro-Hillary-only media sources. She could be indicted, tried, convicted and serving time before MSNBC even acknowledges anything has happened.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I rely on analyses by trained lawyers and former prosecutors.

I have even seen Republican leaning lawyers say there is nothing we know of to date that leads to indictment and I have yet to see one unaffiliated or Democratic lawyer or former prosecutor suggest she will be indicted.

It's a right wing and fringe left wet dream.

Given enough time I can cite the analyses. I have them bookmarked.

[WhenTheLeveeBreaks]

13. That's strange

because it's a fact that 3 crimes have already been proven. No doubt about them.

1) Destruction of government property
Hillary deleted about 30k "personal" emails. Turns out, someone hacked Blumenthal's email account and recovered correspondence between Hillary and Sid that had to do with Libya. That is not "personal", that is "work". "Work" emails don't belong to Hillary, they belong to the people of the US. Hillary, by her own admission, instructed the "personal" emails to be separated and deleted.

2) Obstruction of Justice
Why did Hillary instruct correspondence between her and Sid to be classified as "personal" and then deleted? Was it a simple mistake? Let's ask a jury.

3) Conspiracy
Hillary, by her own admission, has already said she did not personally separate the emails or actually press the delete key to eliminate the "personal" ones. She instructed someone else to do that. No matter how you cut it, that's entering a conspiracy to destroy government property.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. " Given enough time I can cite the analyses. I have them bookmarked."

" Given enough time I can cite the analyses. I have them bookmarked."

DemocratSinceBirth is nothing if not truthful:



http://prospect.org/article/why-hillary-wont-be-indicted-and-shouldnt-be-objective-legal-analysis

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2015/08/30/clinton-controversy-no-comparison-petraeus-column/71421242/

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/analysis-hillary-clinton-commit-crime-based-today/story?id=36626499

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/analysis-prosecute-hillary-clinton/story?id=38168118

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-prosecution-past-cases-221744

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2015/08/21/clinton-email-state-server-column/32042775/


Now please bite on a pillow or a pencil, whichever is closest, because this is going to be painful. I will defer to the opinion of experts in the field and not a value laden random poster with an ideological axe to grind. Hillary Clinton is not going to be indicted, the hopes and dreams of right wing and fringe left wing fantasists notwithstanding.

[WhenTheLeveeBreaks]

23. Instead of citing anlysis from pro-Hillary sources

Refute the information in my last post.

I know, as you must know as well, that Hillary has committed crimes. The only question is what happens next.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus

Instead of citing anlysis from pro-Hillary sources

Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus

The Politico article cites multiple Republican lawyers and Dan Abrams has questioned the prosecution of Denny Hastert and other prominent Republicans. They are distinguished legals analysts and any sentient person would defer to their informed opinions over those of a random internet poster.


As I said, ad infinitum and ad nauseam, the evidence suggests Secretary Clinton will not be indicted, all the hopes, dreams, and aspirations of right and fringe left wing fantasists, notwithstanding.


"A Clinton indictment wish in one hand, crap in the other. See which one gets filled first."

[WhenTheLeveeBreaks]

29. The problem with your "analysts" is all the same problem

Analysis is always restricted to 2 areas:

1) Whether materials were classified and did Hillary break the law by putting them on her private server.
and some even touch on,
2) The Clinton Foundation and whether there was bribery/quid pro qous all over the place

Between you and me, I firmly believe that there is a treasure-trove of indictable crimes wrapped up in those 2 areas. I do, however, acknowledge that we, as the public, don't have all the information necessary to make a firm conclusion.

The Clinton campaign and the pro-Clinton media want to make sure that the analysis stays restricted to those areas, so that people like you can claim "nothing to see here".

My point is, crimes have already been established. You just need to look in areas other than "classified" and "Clinton Foundation".

The OP asked for a path and I have given a path. At the moment, what you choose to believe goes to the likelihood of the path. Not the existence of the path.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Will it go around in circles?

I have read almost all the available legal analyses, even some in scholarly journals that are peer reviewed, and the consensus is she will not be indicted. That is not to deny that there are those on the far right and the fringe left who believe she should be.

[Stallion]

21. I Don't even Think Bernie wins Nomination if Clinton was Somehow Indicted

probably Biden would emerge-maybe Kerry.

[berniepdx420]

27. is she or is she not being criminally ivestigated by the FBI .. (not partisan congress but the FBI)?

[WhenTheLeveeBreaks]

32. When someone talks about this issue, there is a definite "tell"

If a person says,

"not a criminal investigation but a security review",

You immediately can conclude what follows is spin. It's one of Hillary's favorite lines but the truth is the FBI does not conduct security reviews. There are people who do conduct such reviews, but it is not the FBI. The FBI investigates crimes.

"marked classified"

Once again, this is a typical Hillary line. Of course, the markings do not dictate whether something is classified or not. Anyone who uses that phrase is spinning.

"Hillary's intent"

Once again, spin. Intent is nowhere to be found in the applicable laws and intent is not a requirement for a crime.

Watch for these phrases arguing against the possibility of indictment. If you hear these phrases you can be awfully sure that the "analyst" is either ignorant or spinning.

[TeacherB87]

2. Not possible

I'm a Bernie supporter and I recognize the reality of the math. She's going to be the nominee. And all of this nonsense about her being potentially indicted is ridiculous. I really hate to see proud progressives repeating Republican talking points. They might as well go ahead, suck it up, and recognize that Hillary is the presumptive nominee. Im frankly sick of the drama.

[Human101948]

3. She will be nominated and the Republicans will launch a new scandal...

which, fair or not, will bring her negatives even with Trump and she will lose the election.

It will be Michael Dukakis redux.

[TeacherB87]

4. Still not buying it...

Even if her negatives were as bad as Trumps, the visceral disgust with Trump across the electorate will still allow her to win albeit with a disappointingly small margin. Even if the popular vote was even, she'd still win because of built-in Democratic advantages in the electoral college. He would have to decisively defeat her, and there's no way that is happening.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. She has onions. The former Massachusetts governor didn't.

Unlike him she will give as good as she gets.

[w4rma]

5. Bernie Sanders' campaign manager Jeff Weaver joins Steve Kornacki for a little delegate math:

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/sanders-campaign-undaunted-by-ny-loss-669591619932

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. After next Tuesday he will need to win the remaining contests 65-35 but whatever.

[morningfog]

15. Yep. Being conservative, I expect his new number to be 65.6% of the remaining PDs.

While I support him until he concedes, including to the convention, I wonder whether he will actually continue the race into May.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Despite my unkind words when provoked I have no genuine animus for the guy.

We are all just caught up in the heat of battle. I was on the other side in 84. I was passionate about Gary Hart and saw Mondale as a tired political functionary and the extinguisher of hope. Ironically Tad Devine was there helping Mondale extinguish that hope. Devine loves the chase. For all my animus toward John Weaver I will concede he's a true believer.

However I had no problem voting for Mondale in the general and in retrospect I don't see him as a bad guy, just a guy who wanted to win.

[morningfog]

20. I think most here enjoy the heat of the battle.

[jcgoldie]

9. :)

Weaver is delusional

[FSogol]

12. You do realize, that the clip you posted isn't very flattering for Weaver? Kornacki gulps in

disbelief at the amount of spin that is being attempted. I'm amazed he kept his composure.

It reminds me of Baghdad Bob

[jimmy_crack_corn]

14. Here's some REAL Math

Of the states who have had primaries & are historically BLUE for presidential elections ....

Bernie has won 11 to Hillary 6 !!! ALMOST 2 -to-1

I am sure the Party is watching this as well as the delegates...

Remember the end game isn't the nomination but the attaining the white house in November !!

[Tarc]

17. Not sure if lying, or sadly misinformed

Only 4 states meet your criteria (Sanders win, primary, traditionally blue state)

Vermont
NH
Wisconsin
Michigan

That's four, not eleven. Also VT is is home state, NH is the neighboring and similar state, and MI was a bare squeaker.

Care to try again?

[jimmy_crack_corn]

19. Sorry it was Bernie 9 Hillary 8 Blue States

Bernie Blue States

New Hampshire
Colorado

Minnesota
Vermont

Maine
Michigan
Hawaii
Washington
Wisconsin

Hillary Blue States

Iowa
Massachusetts
Virginia
Florida
Illinois
Ohio
Washington
New York

[LuvLoogie]

31. Using your states with one correction, lets examine electoral weight

Bernie Blue States

4 New Hampshire
9 Colorado

10 Minnesota
3 Vermont

4 Maine
16 Michigan
4 Hawaii
12 Washington
10 Wisconsin

72 total electoral votes

--------------

Hillary Blue States

6 Iowa
11 Massachusetts
13 Virginia
29 Florida
20 Illinois
18 Ohio
15 North Carolina (Barack won in 2012)
29 New York

141 total electoral votes

[jimmy_crack_corn]

34. Corection for your list.. 9 to 7

Last edited Fri Apr 22, 2016, 09:54 PM - Edit history (2)

There more Blue states to come so we will see how it rolls out, I am very optimistic on Bernie....

Also, I wanted to make sure you don't continue to be kept in the dark... Obama Lost NC in 2012

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/north-carolina/


Bernie Blue States

New Hampshire
Colorado
Minnesota
Vermont
Maine
Michigan
Hawaii
Washington
Wisconsin

--------------

Hillary Blue States

Iowa
Massachusetts
Virginia
Florida
Illinois
Ohio
New York


P.S. A few of HRC states (4) have alleged voter fraud Shenanigans.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/riley-waggaman/its-not-just-arizona-elec_b_9550670.html
http://heavy.com/news/2016/04/new-york-election-fraud-lawsuit-results-voter-purge-hearing-open-primary-election-justice-usa/
https://electionfraud2016.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/chicago-audit-efforts-to-thwart-auditors-of-democratic-primary-election-vote-switching-from-clinton-to-sanders-discovered/

[LuvLoogie]

35. Thanks. You're right it was 2008.

So that's what 126 Hillary to 71 Bernie? She is winning by every metric.

[jimmy_crack_corn]

38. Actually counting only the no "shenanigan" states it is Bernie

So that's what 72 Bernie Hillary 60 ? "Shenanigans don't!!


Primary "Shenanigan Free States Count:
Bernie 9 & Hillary 3

More Blue States to come.......... very optimistic on Bernie....

Bernie Blue States

New Hampshire
Colorado
Minnesota
Vermont
Maine
Michigan
Hawaii
Washington
Wisconsin

--------------

Hillary Blue States - with no ‘Shenanigans’
Virginia
Florida
Ohio

--------------

Hillary Blue States - with ‘Shenanigans’
Iowa
Massachusetts
Illinois
New York

P.S. A few (4) of HRC states have alleged voter Shenanigans.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…/its-not-just-arizona-elec_b…

http://heavy.com/…/new-york-election-fraud-lawsuit-results…/

https://electionfraud2016.wordpress.com/…/chicago-audit-ef…/

[LuvLoogie]

39. Bernie supporters have "alleged shenanigans" in every contest Hillary has won.

[jimmy_crack_corn]

40. Alleged = Documented

see the links in my previous post from non right wings sources

[LuvLoogie]

41. Your first two links only point to front pages. The last link looks Like The "Sane" Progressives

So Until the results in the "shenangans" states are overturned--126 to 71. Hillary is still winning.

[Stallion]

22. I'm Going Out on a Limb and Think She Can Get the Pledged Delegates BEFORE Convention

but only because after she sweeps next Tuesday there will be realization that she is the nominee and more Democrats will jump on bandwagon. Right now according to 538.com she has about 1.08% of delegates to get 50%. I think she would need to pull that up to the 1.18% range.

[w4rma]

25. Noone is going to get to that number before the convention. MATH. (nt)

[HooptieWagon]

26. Irrelevant.

Delegates do more than nominating a candidate. They also vote on party platform and rules. Sanders is perfectly entitled to go to the convention with as many delegates as he can, even if it's short of enough to win nomination.

[Raster]

28. Doesn't. Really. Matter.... More importantly, show me the math where Clinton...

...arrives at the convention with 2,384 PLEDGED DELEGATES firmly in her pocket...Ooopsadoodle... I'm betting you CAN'T!

I'm also betting we're all going to the convention together. Many things can happen...

“My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don’t understand it,” she said, dismissing calls to drop out.

[Tarc]

33. Neither did Obama in 2008

The superdelegates can and should cast their votes for the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates.

[Garrett78]

37. It's 2383. Not that it matters.

With a clear majority of pledged delegates (somewhere close to 2200), getting Clinton to 2383 will be a mere formality. Any suggestion that the person with a deficit of 300+ pledged delegates will become the nominee is absurd.

[MadBadger]

36. I have Hillary with 2195 pledged delegates