2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMy one factor primary predictor is 6 for 6. What does it say is in store for 4/26?
Last edited Tue Apr 26, 2016, 10:36 PM - Edit history (5)
States already predicted will be folded into the model itself after next Tuesday for May contests, so some of the later states may change after next week.
Hypothesis: Simply by analyzing the percentage of a state's population that is black, I believe you can fairly accurately predict the "winner" of a state in upcoming primaries and caucuses. There will be misses, I am sure, but I'm bored, so let's see how this works out. I'll bump the thread and fill in actual results (With insightful commentary like, "Boy, that one was wrong!" as primaries go on...assuming people are interested in my validation or humiliation, as the case may be.
So let's begin with states that have already voted
Your key for numbers below:
State Rank for Black Pop. State % of Pop. that is Black
All numbers from 2010 Census
Bernie Wins
44 NH 1.22%
33 CO 4.28%
31 MN 4.57%
26 OK 7.96%
49 VT 0.87%
29 KS 6.15%
32 NE 4.50%
47 ME 1.03%
16 MI 14.24%
48 ID 0.95%
43 UT 1.27%
Avg Black Pop 4.28%
At +1 Standard Deviation 8.38%
Hillary Wins
40 IA 2.68%
23 NV 9.00%
5 SC 28.48%
6 AL 26.38%
12 AR 15.76%
3 GA 31.4%
25 MA 8.1%
10 TN 16.78%
18 TX 11.91%
9 VA 19.91%
2 LA 32.4%
1 MS 37.30%
11 FL 15.91%
14 IL 14.88%
19 MO 11.49%
7 NC 21.60%
17 OH 12.04%
35 AZ 4.16%
Avg Black Pop 17.79%
At -1 Standard Deviation 7.80%
Prediction Methodology: If a state's black population is less than Bernie's 1 St Dev number, I predict he wins. If it is more than Hillary's 1 St Dev number, I predict she wins.
So my straight up, no commentary predictions (Note: this isn't a prediction of margin of victory, just who comes out on top as the state's winner. I also do not include territories):
34 AK 4.27% Bernie Correct
38 HI 3.08% Bernie Correct
36 WA 3.74% Bernie Correct
30 WI 6.07% Bernie Correct
42 WY 1.29% Bernie Correct
13 NY 15.18% Hillary Correct
21 CT 10.34% Hillary Correct
8 DE 20.95% Hillary Correct
4 MD 30.1% Hillary Correct
20 PA 10.79% Hillary Correct
27 RI 7.5% Bernie Correct
22 IN 9.07% Hillary
37 WV 3.58% Bernie
24 KY 8.2% Hillary
41 OR 2.01% Bernie
28 CA 6.67% Bernie
50 MT 0.67% Bernie
15 NJ 14.46% Hillary
39 NM 2.97% Bernie
46 ND 1.08% Bernie
45 SD 1.14% Bernie
** DC 50.7% Hillary
Now there will be some misses here, because the two data sets overlap in the 2nd Standard Deviation (Mean+2*StDev vs Mean -2*StDev), so the question will become which states and in which direction. That said, misses should favor Hillary as her Standard Deviation is over twice as wide as Bernie's (Wider standard deviation means more variation in the numbers. In this case, wider Deviation means Clinton has been more successful among a wider variation in black population than Bernie).
itsrobert
(14,157 posts)I predict Hillary to win NM and California based on her huge Hispanic population support. See AZ, Texas, Florida, etc.
thanks
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)So, I'm keeping this simply to black population for the model. However, there is a very good chance CA flips to Clinton when I recalibrate next week--especially if Sanders can't pull off Rhode Island.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)HRC won CA Hispanics 67-32 in 08:
http://www.pewhispanic.org/2008/03/07/the-hispanic-vote-in-the-2008-democratic-presidential-primaries/
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)To date, black population has a 72% correlation with Clinton's margin.
So, for my little bet, it is the best factor available.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)pnwmom
(108,980 posts)So why should they hold it against Hillary and not him?
Bernie was more of a law and order guy back then. When the bill was going through Congress, he added a statement to the Congressional Record advocating for eliminating the disparity between sentencing for crack and cocaine -- by raising the penalties on cocaine.
LexVegas
(6,067 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)For what that is worth.
Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #4)
MoonRiver This message was self-deleted by its author.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
Buns_of_Fire
(17,181 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I even modeled out the entire NFL season by team the last two years. That was a fun exercise and surpassingly accurate (Hit poll about 70% of outright winners by week).
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)grossproffit
(5,591 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)So ends April. The model will be recalibrated for May to include results from the 11 predicted races so far.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)I love statistics.
Looking forward to your May predictions.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I thought the model was overestimating Bernie's chances in Rhode Island, but I was wrong. Sometimes the numbers are the numbers, no matter how much we would rather believe something different.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Hillary is polling up. I look forward to seeing!
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Only a few variations on the 26th races!