2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumInvestigative Journalism: Why Bernie may have actually won New York
from reddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4g3x5h/investigative_journalism_why_bernie_may_have/
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks for whom the voter plans to vote, or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks for whom the voter actually voted. Pollsters usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours or even days to count. Exit polls have historically and throughout the world been used as a check against, and rough indicator of, the degree of election fraud.
After all votes are tabulated, exit polls are adjusted to match recorded results. According to NPR, for this election cycle, a firm called Edison Research conducts the polling used by major networks. Exit polling has not been conducted for every contest thus far. Here are the unadjusted exit polls against the final results (significant discrepancy | state flip; data source):
see chart:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4g3x5h/investigative_journalism_why_bernie_may_have/
Side note: although Edison Research did not conduct exit polling in Arizona, a local newspaper called the Daily Courier did but only for Yavapai County. Official results have Clinton winning the county 52.9-44.7; however, the Couriers exit polling had Sanders crushing her 62-37. Possible explanation: heavy early voting advantaged Clinton; nonetheless, Arizona was a quagmire.
Excluding Arizona (because only one county was polled), Sanders has suffered an average 6.92% deviation among all contests with exit polling. In particular, assuming that New York exit polling was conducted correctly, the statistical likelihood of a 12% deviation from exit polling is 1/126,000. Theoretically, the results would be equally likely to deviate in either direction; the probability that the 18 of the 19 exit polls above swung to Hillarys advantage is 0.000038 (that is, fewer than four in one hundred thousand elections would roll this way due to chance).
This has become really sad now. The amount of excuses everytime Bernie loses is ridiculous.
Loudestlib
(980 posts)bahrbearian
(13,466 posts)PCPrincess
(68 posts)and Hillary's campaign is participating in it. I'm very certain that they over-played their hand this time and they will be found out. When that happens, I'm sure you won't mind if we remind all of you of your relentless rationalizations. Yep, there may even be a few, "I told you so(s)!"
The Second Stone
(2,900 posts)you are a damned liar. GTH.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)As a result they are being contested as well, too.
questionseverything
(9,657 posts)i am really proud of the illinois ballot integrity project
i have said for a while, hc's firewall is the electronic counting machines
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)MFM008
(19,818 posts)If you check HUFFPO you will see an article on the republican they say screwed up in NY. Had nothing to do with HRC if there were mistakes made.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Move on.
"Don't count your chickens before they are hatched. It's stupid and disastrous."
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Carry on, children.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)They hatched on super Tuesday
Takket
(21,611 posts)so contending he won based on exit polling is just silly.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)In 18 of 19 states, Sanders lost delegates in the 'official' count vs. the exit polls. Random error would mean a near 50/50 split between doing better or worse than exit polls. It can be claimed the exit polling methodology is faulty, but then there's Chicago with admitted vote tampering, and NYC with voter registration purges.
MattP
(3,304 posts)MattP
(3,304 posts)Wow, just wow
dooner
(1,217 posts)This is about the sanctity of our democracy."
This should be an important matter of concern to all voters.
Lodestar
(2,388 posts)to conduct exit polls, etc. -
redundancy will show deviations and discrepancies and help prevent fraud.
I think we all know just how far the status quo in capable of going to maintain
control and so work-arounds, documentation and redundancy are critical.
FreakinDJ
(17,644 posts)<iframe width="640" height="360" src="" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Tarc
(10,476 posts)factfinder_77
(841 posts)brooklynite
(94,694 posts)You can't trust polling done by "corporate media"
But you CAN trust exit polls done by the same corporate media.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)Just like it's a GOP election board official who disenfranchised NY voters, and likely did more to disenfranchise Hillary supporters than bernie Supporters.. But they argue it as if it's a given that Hillary had something.. Or everything to do with it.
Just like they convienantly ignore that there's a difference between a superdelegate and a pledged delegate when it comes to the investigator. Of course, to be fair, it might be actual ignorance rather than deception.. After all we are talking about a group who apparently has a large number of supporters who don't know the first thing about how their own election rules works.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)Move Along - Nothing To See Here...
YouDig
(2,280 posts)FSogol
(45,516 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)If the situation were reversed we'd be hearing about "corporate pollsters" manufacturing exit poll results and how only the REAL votes count.
The more extreme Sandernistas have lost their fucking minds on this issues.
TMontoya
(369 posts)Dies anyone think Reddit is credible for anything?
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)16% win. This is pure fantasy.
snot
(10,530 posts)Significant exit poll discrepancies have been happening since at least 2000, nearly always in favor of the more conservative candidates; and I have yet to see an explanation that made any sense to me.