2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNBC News Poll Shows Hillary Weak...
Trump Leads Clinton in Hypothetical Hoosier State Match-Up
In a hypothetical general-election matchup, Trump is ahead of Clinton by seven points among registered voters in this traditionally Republican state, 48 percent to 41 percent.
But Trump's lead is just one point when matched up against Bernie Sanders, 47 percent to 46 percent.
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/donald-trump-leads-cruz-15-points-crucial-indiana-race-n565356
If she can't bury Bernie, how will she ever beat Trump?
P.S.--Margin of error for Dem voters is 4.6%
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)hard to figure out. $$$$$$$$$
AgerolanAmerican
(1,000 posts)the draw is that Sanders promises to put the brakes on the swamp of corruption in DC
and those votes will not be convertible with HRC as the nominee - she's exactly what these voters don't want
anti-corruption is the #1 need in this country today... nothing else can get done in a system so deeply undermined by conflict of interest
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)The OP asked, if Hillary has a tough time with Sanders, how can she beat Trump ? Answer: Trump is not traveling from college campus to college campus offering naive students trillions in benefits. That's the big elephant in the room irrespective of your Sargeant Shultz routine.
DebDoo
(319 posts)Hillary?
Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)the clinton crowd is operating with the blinders on... after it's too late - they still won't get it. They will just blame everyone else for her loss.
'
Human101948
(3,457 posts)From guess where...
The Wall Street Journal!
http://www.wsj.com/articles/price-tag-of-bernie-sanders-proposals-18-trillion-1442271511
Then this faulty meme gained traction was people like you who embraced and repeated the Republican lies...
The Wall Street Journal gets whacked: How its Bernie Sanders hit piece completely backfired
...the program would involve spending $15 trillion over a decade. But they left out the key detail: it would actually save the country a total $5 trillion over those 10 years. Wed see those savings in reduced administrative waste, lower pharmaceutical and device prices, and by decreasing the rate of medical inflation.
Because the simple fact is: We, as a people, are going to spend that $15 trillion on health care anyway. The difference is that under the current model, we pay that money to private insurance companies. And those private companies have much higher levels of administrative costs, fraud and general waste than Medicare does. Another difference is that the government would be negotiating drug prices, making drugs more affordable for everyone.
And who would see that $5 trillion in savings? Businesses for one. Along with state and local governments. Because they wouldnt have to pay for their employees insurance whod be covered by Medicare for All.
http://www.salon.com/2015/09/24/the_wall_street_journal_gets_whacked_how_its_bernie_sanders_hit_piece_completely_backfired_partner/
artislife
(9,497 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Human101948
(3,457 posts)Republicans have been working to convert the once-neutral "entitlement" label into a negative to make it easier for Congress to cut social programs.
While an entitlement used to be a positive indicating a citizen's right to the benefits of a program they paid into the term is now used to portray social spending that's out of control...
....Some Democrats have argued they should call Social Security and Medicare "earned benefits" programs instead of "entitlements." But it never caught on. And now Republicans have framed the debate.
http://theweek.com/articles/465537/entitlement-dirty-word
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Every day at DU for the past six months.
Thanks for keeping the streak alive!
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,013 posts)thesquanderer
(12,277 posts)Indiana is a long shot for the general, but not impossible. If Hillary beats Bernie in Indiana, it just means that the Dems in Indiana are supporting the Dem who would be less likely to carry Indiana in November. But that's what I feel the whole race has been like, Dems supporting the nomination of the candidate who will be weaker against Trump. Luckily, I think either Dem would beat Trump, but I think Bernie would beat him more handily, possibly carrying more states and then more congressional representatives on his coattails. Head-to-head polling, unfavorability ratings, and the lack of an investigation hanging over his head all favor Bernie as the stronger candidate for the general. But, we'll get what we get, and it will almost certainly be Hillary, and she should at least be good enough to win.
apnu
(8,788 posts)When was the last time Indiana was in play for the Democrats and we needed that state's Electorial Votes?
Demsrule86
(70,800 posts)we heard the same thing in New York. But she doesn't have to.
apnu
(8,788 posts)She can lose every single one, and still collect enough pledged delegates to win, never mind the superdelegates.
However, the OP brought up the GE and Trump, like it matters now, and that IN, might suddenly have a pole shift from conservative to liberal. Which, I see as a fantasy, as there is no evidence of Indiana's liberalization.
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,013 posts)Off the top of my head I believe the last time IN went blue at the presidential level was 1964 and before that 1940!!!
apnu
(8,788 posts)Human101948
(3,457 posts)The everchanging tune...
apnu
(8,788 posts)But Indiana did give safe harbor to the KKK when they were first run out of the South and that allowd them to stage a comeback in the 1950s.
Indiana has its sins and they are many.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)There's a reason for that.
Human101948
(3,457 posts)CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)And those who try to make an argument that Hillary can, but Bernie cannot, win are dishonest. (And I am using that word kindly.) The Republicans, as we see with their primaries (as played out so far), are in a world of trouble. The fact that their voters are nominating Donald Trump tells us all what self-identified Republicans think of their party.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)grossproffit
(5,591 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)livetohike
(22,812 posts)grossproffit
(5,591 posts)livetohike
(22,812 posts)People at the convention will be falling asleep.
Human101948
(3,457 posts)"I was wrong on that vote."
"I changed my thinking."
"The republicans made me do it."
Hillary Clinton has a propensity to change her mind on big issues. She has reversed her positions on gay marriage, immigration, gun control, the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, mass incarceration and the Iraq War, and some believe her recent stand on the Keystone XL pipeline constitutes a flip, too.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/democratic-debate-hillary-clinton-flip-flop-213247#ixzz47V7yeKEB
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Hillary Clinton bombs with the two youngest voting-age groups: 17/1829 and 3044. For Bernie Sanders to lose any states to Hillary and still carry the youngest age group by 3-to-1 (like Massachusetts and New York) or 4-to-1 (like Illinois and Pennsylvania) long after the first two statesIowa and New Hampshire (again, 80 percent or more from this age group)should inform anyone shilling for Hillary that she has her work to do for them. (No party frontrunner should be losing ones partys No. 1 voting-age basethe only one which carried nationally in 2004 for John Kerrythat badly.)
artislife
(9,497 posts)DetroitSocialist83
(169 posts)Sanders will win easily.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)If he can't win in a state that's favorable to him like Indiana, how is he going to beat Trump?
See, I can make ridiculous nonsequitur arguments too.
Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)You HRC supporters just spew nonsense regardless of the truth.
Indiana is perhaps the reddest state in the Midwest. How the hell is that "favorable" to Bernie? This is just like next-level cray-cray... Do you have any idea what the electoral map looked like the past half-dozen GEs? Or, let me guess, just making it up as you go along....
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Sanders best performances in primaries have been mostly in the rural and more conservative areas of states, while Clinton performs better in more liberal and Democratic areas. The exception is Wisconsin, but he still won conservative counties there too. Look at a damn map and learn something about politics before flying off the handle and calling people crazy.
artislife
(9,497 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Not to mention it was an open caucus format.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Let me start with saying I live in Indiana. The state has an AA population of less than 10%. Based on the historical performance, that favors Sanders. Also, the states Democratic populations are concentrated in 5 areas..... Indianapolis, Bloomington, West Lafayette, Muncie, and the Gary/Chicagoland area. 3 of those areas are University towns (Bloomington, West Lafayette, and Muncie) and Indy is not as Democratic as many big cities. It is a majority white city. AA's make up only about 28% of the population in Indy. As someone active in Democratic politics in the state, I can tell you that while we are definitely outnumbered by the Republicans here (I live in Mike Pence's old district... blech!), the party itself is pretty progressive.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Indiana has an open primary and is 84% white. So, yes, it's a state he should win. As I've pointed out numerous times throughout this campaign, the Clinton-Red State meme takes reality and flips it on its head. Look at Romney's margin of victory in each of the states he won in 2012:
1) Utah: 48 points
2) Wyoming: 41 points
3) Oklahoma: 34 points
4) Idaho: 32 points
5) West Virginia: 27 points
6) Arkansas: 24 points
7) Nebraska: 23 points
8) Kentucky: 22 points (22.7)
9) Alabama: 22 points (22.3)
10) Kansas: 22 points (22.2)
11) Tennessee: 20 points (20.5)
12) North Dakota: 20 points (19.8)
13) South Dakota: 18 points
14) Louisiana: 17 points
15) Texas: 16 points
16) Alaska: 14 points (14.0)
17) Montana: 14 points (13.5)
18) Mississippi: 12 points
19) South Carolina: 11 points (10.6)
20) Indiana: 11 points (10.5)
21) Arizona: 10 points (10.1)
22) Missouri: 10 points (9.6)
23) Georgia: 8 points
24) North Carolina: 2 points
Zynx
(21,328 posts)Jitter65
(3,089 posts)beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
Human101948
(3,457 posts)over an unknown Senator who was 60 points behind when this started.
I would say that is very weak.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)pnwmom
(109,435 posts)Of course Dems have more trouble choosing between them -- their positions are not that far apart.
But they won't have any trouble choosing between Hillary and any of the Rethugs.