What happens if Hillary wins California?

[Txbluedog]

She even if she wins by 1 point, is this over then?

[DURHAM D]

1. It will be over when New Jersey comes in

earlier in the day.

[Txbluedog]

2. This was a question for Sanders supporters

[DURHAM D]

5. Perhaps you should of posted it in the Sander's group.

can't read your mind

[ronnykmarshall]

38. Word!

[JoePhilly]

64. yup

[Eric J in MN]

3. The final primary is DC a week later.

Sanders may campaign in DC even if Clinton already has a majority of pledged delegates.

He wants to have as many delegates as possible to affect the party platform.

[brush]

19. Have you been to DC? He's not winning the DC primary.

[Eric J in MN]

24. All the contests are proportional.

Even if Sanders expects to lose DC, he still wants as many delegates as he can get.

[Recursion]

49. He'll carry wards 2 and 3

But won't do too well east of the creek, let alone east of the river. I'd guess 8 of the 20 delegates.

[larkrake]

4. No, Its not over we focus on downticket progressives

The movement is the goal, not the man

[Scuba]

7. ^^ This ^^

[Buzz cook]

40. What down ticket progressives

Has Bernie helped?

[larkrake]

68. stay tuned, he has just begun

[Buzz cook]

70. So starting late again

Just like his own campaign.

[ronnykmarshall]

43. All over the nation.

Hillary is going to get the nomination .. sorry Bernie peeps. What we all need to do is not just get her elected... BUT support the down ticket candidates. I'm lucky in Los Angeles, I have a solid blue district. Work for the down ticket peeps that can kick out a GOP candidate. Senate or House. I'm going to donate direct to who looks like they can take a seat from a GOP skag.

[One Black Sheep]

6. She won't. Bernie takes California by ten points, at least

The West Coast so far has been all Bernie territory!

[baldguy]

17. Still not enough to win.

Sanders still needs 10x more delegates than Clinton does. That's a spread of more than 40 points, at least. Not admitting that fact is just delusional.

[TimPlo]

41. "admitting that fact is just delusional"

She was what >300 ahead of him in pledged delegates? If he pulls out a 40 point win in CA then he would have the majority of pledged delegates and if the SD do not want to see the collapse of the DNC when they hand it to Clinton over the will of the voters then have at it. Not like he is going to get 40 points but for you to call someone delusion when you are just plain ill informed on how Super delegates work is funny.

[Corporate666]

59. Nope

Bernie is down by 274 at the moment.

If he won California by 40 points, he would gain 190 delegates on Hillary. He would still be down by 84.

But it's even worse than that. Sanders is down big in Puerto Rico and New Jersey, the next 2 largest states still to come. He will likely fall 30-40 delegates further behind. And he will lose in DC also.

Which means the actual margin he would need to win California by isn't 40 points. It's more like 68 points. Meaning he would need to win 84 to 16.

[SidDithers]

71. It's funny when you call someone else "plain ill informed"..

in the same post where you claim a 40 point win by Sanders in California will give him a majority of pledged delegates.

Sid

[brush]

21. Unlike Washington and Oregon, California is very diverse. Sanders doesn't do well in diverse states.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

26. He won Hawaii...

The least white state in America. Take your divisive identity politics elsewhere.

[brush]

30. Hah! Divisive identity politics or just observations from the whole primary season?

Sanders does best in mostly white states.

That's just a fact.

[Agschmid]

32. ...

[Ace Rothstein]

63. Least white does not mean most diverse.

[politicaljunkie41910]

23. No one told us Californians that. Clinton has been leading in the polls.

Don't confuse California with Oregon and Washington. We are much more diverse than those two states and California is not going to vote for higher taxes. We already pay some of the highest taxes in the nation and we send more tax dollars to Washington than we receive back by a long shot. We also have had very good low cost Community Colleges for more than the 58 years I've been on this earth without Bernie's help thus far.

[basselope]

36. And the polls have been SO accurate.

She was ahead in Oregon by 15, Indiana by 7.

[BootinUp]

29. Not a chance. nt

[ronnykmarshall]

39. Oh that's so cute.

Not gonna happen.

[StevieM]

56. The minority population in California is much higher than in Oregon or Washington state.

And then spells victory for Hillary Clinton.

I expect her to win California by about 10 points.

[hellofromreddit]

8. No, the date of the convention stays the same.

[workinclasszero]

9. Its been over since NY....earlier even

New York really made Bernies wheels come off though.

[rozdeep]

10. It will be over when the convention is over, end of discussion.

[Brother Buzz]

11. Clinton could lose the state, yet still get a lock on the nomination

Go figure.

[Zynx]

14. Well, she has won 8 of the biggest 10 states so far.

In addition to many others.

[Brother Buzz]

18. And Sanders could win the whole shooting match.....

if he just had a few more primaries.

[moriah]

12. The lyrics from Tool cometo mind....

"Some say a comet will fall from the sky.
Followed by meteor showers and tidal waves.
Followed by fault lines that cannot sit still.
Followed by millions of dumbfounded dipshits...."

Minus the dipshit part, because I certainly expect California to go at least 10 points Bernie and would be definitely dumbfounded. And I am a Hillary supporter.

Edit to add link for a good song.

[reddread]

13. airlines will be able to serve free bacon

[KingFlorez]

15. If that occured she'd clinch the nomination

And yes, superdelegates backing her do count because they are going to back the pledged delegate leader. I would also imagine that President Obama would come forward and endorse her at that point.

[onehandle]

16. It's been over for a long, long time. Even if she lost 51%+ of California, she would still win. nt

[lancer78]

58. read the words

around the picture. Does not sound pro-gun to me.

[LibDemAlways]

20. Hillary will not win California.

Californians do not care how many delegates Hillary has. We are an independent minded bunch and will vote our conscience.Suspect Bernie will do very well.

[brush]

22. California is pretty diverse. Sanders doesn't do well in diverse states.

Anyway, it'll be over before California polls close as Clinton will win New Jersey.

[fleabiscuit]

25. What happens when Hillary wins California? TFTFY

It will be over even more after NJ also goes Hillary.

[Jester Messiah]

27. Trump wins. N/T

[Renew Deal]

28. It's already over.

But Hillary will be past 2383 before the polls in CA close.

[fleabiscuit]

33. True, true.

[TimPlo]

45. Clinton has 1768

There are 761 pledged delegates on June 7th and that includes CA.
She needs 2383 - 1768 = 615

so 615 is 81% of 761
So you are saying she is going to win 81% of the following primaries? I thought HRC Drones where good at math.


And Super delegates do not vote till the convention so saying she has them is not really 100%.

[Renew Deal]

46. Hate to break it to you but super delegates count

We'll go with the Green Papers numbers which are lower than the MSNBC numbers.

Hillary has 1771 + 506 supers. 2277 total. She is likely to win the next three elections by good margins (VI, PR, NJ). She is likely to win around 60% of those delegates which is 115. In fact, she will probably get around 45 from PR and VI. That puts her at 2816. She will need just 67 more and will get all of those from NJ. Turn the lights out. The delegates from CA will just be padding.

And if you don't believe me. Just watch what happens on TV when Hillary hits 2383. MSNBC has her at 2298.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election

[moriah]

54. If supers aren't supposed to matter, the number she needs is 2026.

There are 4,051 pledged delegates.

So 2026 - 1768 = 258.

She will only need 34% of June 7 delegates to give her a pledged delegate lead. 47% of them, enough to have a 100 delegate lead, isn't impossible even if California goes 60/40 or higher for Bernie.

And even if Bernie beats her by 10 points in every primary and gets 70% of Cali... she's still 50 pledged delegates ahead.

http://DemRace.com/?share=C3eUWO6E

If the Supers split by porportion of vote in each state, as Bernie has proposed, it's unlikely that the outcome would change. But the last time we had a close two-way primary, the tradition was established that the supers would follow the leader in pledged delegates. I don't think that's going to change, as suggesting Bernie should get all of California's superdelegates because he won the state would have given Clinton the nomination in 2008, as she won California.

[Hoyt]

31. More whining and charges of primary being rigged. Then, same bull at convention.

[kayakjohnny]

35. Oh, you mean this?

https://www.google.com/search?q=dnc+fraud&spell=1&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwin05zVke_MAhXl7oMKHak9D1AQBQgaKAA

[Alex4Martinez]

37. Top result for that search is a Change.org petition calling for investigation of DNC fraud. link:

Here it is:

https://www.change.org/p/fec-open-an-investigation-into-hillary-clinton-and-the-dnc-for-election-fraud

[Hoyt]

47. Exactly, whining and filing complaints over losing, stealing data . . . . . .

[kayakjohnny]

34. Her supporters get to gloat again.

Just like they do when she loses.

And she gains not one single point in those abysmal approval ratings.

[Thinkingabout]

42. She will have half of the pledged delegates and will be well over the required delegate

Count before the night is over. It's alright, I would like to see her with more votes and delegates.

[oldandhappy]

44. I guess that means she owns us!

[GreatGazoo]

50. it will take a whole lot of Skeeball tickets

[BellaLuna]

48. There will be cries of fraud and the usual crap

>

[haikugal]

51. Are there other primaries? Easy to answer right?

[Recursion]

52. She could lose CA, kind of badly, and still cross 2026 on the 7th. (nt)

[Fumesucker]

53. "The skies will open, the light will come down,

celestial choirs will be singing and everyone will know we should do the right thing and the world will be perfect,”

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/25/clinton-gets-sarcastic-mocks-obama/

[barrow-wight]

57. It will never be over for some of them.

Flash forward fifty years. Nursing home attendant arrives to give the kind old lady in room 203 her nightly medication and says, "Good evening, Mrs. Smith, how are you tonight?" The kind old lady reaches for her medication and suddenly bellows forth in lowing tones ... "FEEL THE BERN!!!!!"

Yeah, I can actually imagine this happening.

[grossproffit]

60. muhahaha

[joshcryer]

61. Nothing, the media will have called it for her when NJ polls close.

They aren't going to require her to reach the pledged delegate majority like they didn't require it of Obama. It will be historic.

It will only be a footnote of interest that when the CA polls close she will have most likely garnered the pledged delegate majority as well as the total delegate majority.

[Nonhlanhla]

62. It makes no difference whether she wins or loses CA

Unless Bernie wins 70-80% of the CA vote, it would not make a difference.

But if Hillary wins, the one predictable thing that will happen is that Bernie supporters will complain about "vote rigging."

[Vinca]

65. It may not be over until the vote at the convention.

Then the media will focus 100% of the time on Hillary's negatives over the continuing Democratic race. Bernie is inadvertently doing Hillary a favor by staying in this long. It's a shame her supporters don't realize it.

[B Calm]

66. What happens next is President Trump, unless

she makes a hard turn to the left!

[Orsino]

67. It ends at the convention. Still. n/t

[Lodestar]

69. The Doomsday Clock Strikes Midnight...n/t