2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFLORIDA: Cllinton - 45% Trump - 42% ; Sanders 42% Trump 42%; Biden 50% Trump 40%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mason_Dixon_FL_June_2016.pdf"In a hypothetical match up, Biden holds a strong lead over Trump (50% 40%), while Sanders can only muster a 42%-42% tie. Bidens high favorable rating and relatively low negatives compared to the other candidates is a big factor."
Interesting....
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)Democrats Ascendant
(601 posts)I love Biden, but everyone is more popular when they're not actively on the campaign trail. No negatives, hyper-scrutiny, etc. These hypotheticals are pretty meaningless. I think the end result in FL will be much stronger for Clinton.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)Obama won FL in 2012 by less than 100,000 votes, out of 8 million + cast.
In 2008, Obama won FL by about 2% points.
Democrats Ascendant
(601 posts)Lots of retirees and Latinos with a lot on the line. I'm hopeful anyways, would love that state become a solid blue from here on out!
LonePirate
(13,420 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)bad.
LonePirate
(13,420 posts)CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)Democrats Ascendant
(601 posts)He got walloped by Clinton in the primary and I do think he would lose FL in the general.
mythology
(9,527 posts)He lost in the primary at least partially because Hispanics have voted with Clinton. But in the general, the other option with be Trump. I'm pretty sure Hispanic voters (among other groups) will be motivated to vote for either Clinton or Sanders.
RichVRichV
(885 posts)2012 General Demographic Breakdowns by Party: Democrat (35%), Republican (33%), Independent (33%)
This polls Demographic Breakdowns by Party: Democrat (41%), Republican (37%), Independent (22%)
Democrats are being oversampled by 6 points, Republicans are being oversampled by 4 points, and Independents are being under-sampled by 11 points (versus 2012 general election). The age demographics aren't bad. 18-34 are being undersampled by about 6 points and 65+ are oversampled by about 6 points.
That's no where near the worse sampling I've seen this cycle, but it definitely favors the parties and our party in particular. Maybe they're expecting a massive downturn in Independent voters.