RCP general election polls graph: Clinton starting to pull away from Trump

[DCBob]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

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Perhaps the impact of the "Mexican judge" scandal beginning to show. I expect her numbers to improve even more in the next round of polls. Sanders argument that she is vulnerable in the general is starting to fade.

[Stallion]

1. Better Idea: Ignore RCP and head to the More Accurate Pollster (Clinton +4)

RCP had Romney leading for 10 days until the Eve of Election. RCP has a more conservative bundle of polls with a conservative lean

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

[DCBob]

2. I think they capture all polls from all reputable pollsters.

Just like Huffington Post Pollster.

[Stallion]

4. No Its a Different Bundle of Polls That Make Up Their Composites-That's why there is about a 2 point

difference

[DCBob]

5. Looks like Huffington Post is missing the ABC/WashPost poll 5/16-19 with Hillary down 2.

That appears to be the difference. Why would HuffPost/Pollster leave that one out?

[Stallion]

7. Nope Its in There-Pollster Tracks More Polls So You've Got to Scroll Down

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/abc-post-24526

[DCBob]

10. Yes, I do see it now.

Looks like HuffPost/Pollster includes more pollsters than RCP.. eg.. Morning Consult, NBC/Survey Monkey, and YouGov. Other than that they are the same.

[Stallion]

9. Discussion/Criticism of How Off RCP Was Before the 2012 Election

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/25/1150097/-As-Obama-lead-solidifies-RealClearPolitics-shows-right-wing-bias/

[DCBob]

13. Thanks.. I didnt realize there was such a big issue with RCP.

I know they tracked a bit differently but I didnt think it was significant.

[Lord Magus]

32. Huffington Post Pollster includes all polls in their average. RCP includes only some.

And I'm not clear on exactly what standard RCP uses on which to include.

[DCBob]

34. Yes, I noticed that now. It didnt realize it before.

[LenaBaby61]

44. I believe they had those 2 polls from California....

Showing that Hillary was only 1-2 points up on Bernie, and as we saw that wasn't the case at all. Hillary in a romp in California. I believe the last poll, the ARG poll which leans right said that Bernie was only 1 point down in California. Also, it's a bit too early for me and "BIG" polling. Secondly, what type of methodology is the polling firm using? Do they poll too far left or right? Do they poll a large enough number and cross section of respondents? MoE is also important as well.

[MattP]

3. Good she's pulling ahead

It's just the start

[DCBob]

6. Yep. Its going to get better and better.

[Skwmom]

8. They've been attacking Trump and the attacks against Clinton are only beginning.

[DCBob]

14. Huh?? They have been attacking Hillary nonstop 7x24 for months and years.

[Skwmom]

20. Come on. Bernie didn't lay a glove on her and the corporate media is a branch of the Clinton

campaign.

[DCBob]

21. Bernie didnt have to... RW media and the GOPers did it for him.

[leftynyc]

29. Does it bother you at all

That you're using the EXACT same words as drudge, breitbart, free republic? You think the press that has given donnie a free ride for almost a year now is a branch of the Clinton campaign?

[Lord Magus]

33. It's not about whether Bernie attacked her, the media's been attacking her constantly for 25 years.

The idea that the media is pro-Clinton is a joke, the media has hated both Bill & Hillary ever since they entered the national stage. Look back to the 90s when every scandal du jour was obsessively covered no matter how obviously bullshit it might be. Hasn't changed that since Bill left office either, just slowed down slightly because they weren't as high-profile. With Hillary as a candidate the smear-Clinton media machine revved back up right on cue.

[Blue_Adept]

36. she was the boogeyman of the entire Republican primary

Bernie barely got a mention.

[TwilightZone]

16. lol, yes, they just began 25 years ago

This place just keeps getting funnier.

[GulfCoast66]

23. Not quite

They started in 1991!! I remember them very well.

She has taken their best shot and is still standing.

[DCBob]

15. Yes, we should see a nice bump in the next round of polls from the Berners-for-Hillary.

[Nictuku]

12. I hope she continues to do so, then I won't have to vote for her

If in November, the polls reflect that she will win California by a large margin, I won't have to vote for the lesser of two evils.

I mean, California voters don't seem to matter, anyway, as witnessed just this last Tuesday.

(I'm sure the AP will announce her as the winner long before I will be able to get to my polling place after work anyway).

[seabeyond]

18. You know what? Who cares and enough. Democratic board and we are having fun with OUR

Democratic candidate.

[seabeyond]

17. We had to clear away distraction to put the two side by side. This is going to get fun. Nt

[DCBob]

19. Yep.. I am looking forward to that!

[workinclasszero]

22. The landslide win for Hillary and democrats starts to build

And Herr Trump is just getting warmed up!

[imagine2015]

25. And so do delusions!

Wish it was true but Trump and the Republican Party haven't even started their attacks on Hillary's dishonesty, lies, 150 million in William and Hillary Clinton corporate speaking fees, the Clinton Foundation, etc.,

[itsrobert]

27. The 90s called

they want their Clinton Conspiracies back

[LenaBaby61]

47. You must have been asleep .....

From the 1990's on.

Like Trump doesn't have baggage and scandal on his doorstep and in his closet

[workinclasszero]

49. Its gonna be Hillary vs Trump choose a side

This is a democratic party board.

The republicans can go to hell and takes their lies and propaganda with them.

[Miles Archer]

24. It's only a matter of time

I don't believe the "Mexican Judge" thing represents the "worst" of Trump...I don't think we've seen that yet.

If he survives this, and if his numbers go back up, the next atrocity will be worse.

At some point, he'll do himself in, although I can't understand why that hasn't already happened. for me, the ruminations over Megyn Kelly's menstrual cycle was more than enough.

[stevenleser]

26. And, This is before the biggest impact of Trump attacking the Judge for being Mexican

That is going to be a big deal

[DCBob]

28. No doubt.

Also the impact of Hillary winning it all Tuesday night will give her a nice bump as well.

[geek tragedy]

30. Next week's polls should show if there's any movement, of course those will still be

June polls which are of limited probative value.

[DCBob]

31. Absolutely.

Just interesting to watch the ups and downs.

[HumanityExperiment]

35. margin of error...

she's not 'pulling away'...

she's still dead even against TRUMP.... TRUMP for cryin' out loud...

doesn't the reality that HRC is within margin of error on this 'latest poll' as to be dead even with TRUMP?

that fact that the reality of her unfavorables has made her so toxic should be the main posts, how do we correct the toxicity of her unfavorables.... how does HRC become more appealing? What does HRC need to do to better to win over people and gain favorability?

Why HRC supporters aren't focused on that here in DU is stunning

[DCBob]

37. Trends baby.. trends!

[HumanityExperiment]

38. Trending to break even... against TRUMP

break out the champagne

[DCBob]

39. Not the way I see it!

[HumanityExperiment]

40. Of course not...

there isn't a mathmatical exception that can break through your rose colored glasses as it pertains to the facts

[DCBob]

41. Give it time.. you will come around also.

[HumanityExperiment]

42. Facts are your friend

I'll stick to my friends, the facts, they are always the best guide, this 'coming around' would require leaving my friends.. and that's something I'm not willing to do, for anybody

[DCBob]

45. Facts..

-- Warren is going to endorse Hillary
-- Bernie is going to endorse Hillary
-- Obama is going to endorse Hillary
-- Trump is an ignorant fraud
-- The GOP is self destructing

All those facts indicate Hillary will win this in a massive landslide!

[HumanityExperiment]

46. FACTS: polling at dead even

you post endorsements whereas I post facts as it pertains to public perception, how much 'importance' do those bullet items you just posted change the dead even aspect HRC is polling against TRUMP?

None of those bullet items change her unfavorables...

[DCBob]

48. "None of those bullet items change her unfavorables..."

They will.. just give it a bit of time.

[Lord Magus]

43. That is not "break even." To claim it is makes you a liar. -nt-