2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNO ONE is saying all the votes in California shouldn't be counted
People who scream about all those remaining ballots and declaring Hillary the winner now are attacking a strawman. All the ballots WILL eventually be counted and no one on DU has suggested they want otherwise.
What is being said is that it's virtually mathematically impossible that those remaining ballots will make up Sanders' deficit and that there's no indication they are much different from the current results. This is simple math. In this modern era having that many outstanding ballots is quite common and has been so in many elections, yet not a single election where a candidate trails by as much as Sanders has had the outcome changed.
All the ballots should be counted. All the ballots WILL be counted. But statistics and math allow us to estimate at least a range of where the race will be once they are. And it's nowhere near what Sanders needs to overcome the current margin.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)It will change everything right?
justiceischeap
(14,040 posts)I'll be the first to admit math and I aren't friends but I know that math is without bias (unless it's biblical math).
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)And he made a molten sea, ten cubits from the one brim to the other: it was round all about, and his height was five cubits: and a line of thirty cubits did compass it round about.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Don't mean to sound overly officious.
ButterflyBlood
(12,644 posts)It happens all the time. How many times do you hear of the media calling an election for one candidate before every vote is counted? Some have been called at 1% in. I believe Sanders victory in New Hampshire was.
Based on what we know now, it's possible to statistically project that after all the votes are counted Hillary will still win California. The remaining ballots beingvthat friendly to Sanders would be an incredible statistical anomaly.
Squinch
(50,949 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)You would have never said this on election night in '08. Way more votes had yet to be counted than this. It was also much closer than this. Obama clearly won. If you want to then say it was about the EC, I will hold consistent with my original argument only shifting the concept to EV's.
still_one
(92,190 posts)that those voting by mail were favoring Hillary.
The vote by mail ballots will be counted if they arrive up to three days after the election. This was all made very clear in the voter pamphlet that was sent out to every registered voter
All other ballots received by 8 P.M on election day WILL BE COUNTED, and provisional ballots are always counted in California elections no matter what the margins.
madokie
(51,076 posts)But not mine. Concerning where the votes will be and for whom
Sanders has had an uphill battle from day one.
Not his fault either. IMO
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Even if we pretend that every single one of the 3 million outstanding votes would go to Bernie, thus giving him California at ~68%, he'd still be way behind in pledged delegates due to the NJ and PR blowouts.