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ButterflyBlood

(12,644 posts)
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 08:52 AM Jun 2016

NO ONE is saying all the votes in California shouldn't be counted

People who scream about all those remaining ballots and declaring Hillary the winner now are attacking a strawman. All the ballots WILL eventually be counted and no one on DU has suggested they want otherwise.

What is being said is that it's virtually mathematically impossible that those remaining ballots will make up Sanders' deficit and that there's no indication they are much different from the current results. This is simple math. In this modern era having that many outstanding ballots is quite common and has been so in many elections, yet not a single election where a candidate trails by as much as Sanders has had the outcome changed.

All the ballots should be counted. All the ballots WILL be counted. But statistics and math allow us to estimate at least a range of where the race will be once they are. And it's nowhere near what Sanders needs to overcome the current margin.

10 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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NO ONE is saying all the votes in California shouldn't be counted (Original Post) ButterflyBlood Jun 2016 OP
But but but-what if Bernie gets 90% of the remaining votes? redstateblues Jun 2016 #1
+1 for math justiceischeap Jun 2016 #2
Pi is 3. NurseJackie Jun 2016 #8
Shouldn't they be counted before declaring who won? Octafish Jun 2016 #3
The call was made on a statistical projection ButterflyBlood Jun 2016 #5
Exactly. The exact thing that has always been done everywhere for everyone is ALWAYS unfair to BS. Squinch Jun 2016 #7
I see no reason why. NCTraveler Jun 2016 #10
About 2/3 of those are vote-by-mail ballots, Alex Padilla reported. The previous polling indicated still_one Jun 2016 #4
That is your opinion madokie Jun 2016 #6
It is nit opinion, it is reality Tarc Jun 2016 #9

justiceischeap

(14,040 posts)
2. +1 for math
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 08:56 AM
Jun 2016

I'll be the first to admit math and I aren't friends but I know that math is without bias (unless it's biblical math).

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
8. Pi is 3.
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 09:13 AM
Jun 2016


1 Kings 7:23 King James

And he made a molten sea, ten cubits from the one brim to the other: it was round all about, and his height was five cubits: and a line of thirty cubits did compass it round about.

ButterflyBlood

(12,644 posts)
5. The call was made on a statistical projection
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 09:08 AM
Jun 2016

It happens all the time. How many times do you hear of the media calling an election for one candidate before every vote is counted? Some have been called at 1% in. I believe Sanders victory in New Hampshire was.

Based on what we know now, it's possible to statistically project that after all the votes are counted Hillary will still win California. The remaining ballots beingvthat friendly to Sanders would be an incredible statistical anomaly.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
10. I see no reason why.
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 09:15 AM
Jun 2016

You would have never said this on election night in '08. Way more votes had yet to be counted than this. It was also much closer than this. Obama clearly won. If you want to then say it was about the EC, I will hold consistent with my original argument only shifting the concept to EV's.

still_one

(92,190 posts)
4. About 2/3 of those are vote-by-mail ballots, Alex Padilla reported. The previous polling indicated
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 09:07 AM
Jun 2016

that those voting by mail were favoring Hillary.

The vote by mail ballots will be counted if they arrive up to three days after the election. This was all made very clear in the voter pamphlet that was sent out to every registered voter

All other ballots received by 8 P.M on election day WILL BE COUNTED, and provisional ballots are always counted in California elections no matter what the margins.


madokie

(51,076 posts)
6. That is your opinion
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 09:08 AM
Jun 2016

But not mine. Concerning where the votes will be and for whom

Sanders has had an uphill battle from day one.

Not his fault either. IMO

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
9. It is nit opinion, it is reality
Sat Jun 11, 2016, 09:14 AM
Jun 2016

Even if we pretend that every single one of the 3 million outstanding votes would go to Bernie, thus giving him California at ~68%, he'd still be way behind in pledged delegates due to the NJ and PR blowouts.

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