I believe Tim Kaine is likely to be Clinton's VP slection

[Music Man]

NOTE: I proudly voted for Bernie in the Kentucky primary. And I was disappointed that Liz Warren decided not to run this year.

I believe Clinton will pick Tim Kaine, and I think it would be a fine selection. I will gladly admit it how wrong I am if she picks someone else.

For better or for worse, Hillary Clinton is very calculating. Announcing Warren will excite the hell out of progressives like me and those of us who populate most of DU. It will dominate the news cycle and be a huge gesture toward Bernie Sanders supporters. But I don't believe excitement is part of Clinton's calculus.

Albeit not a progressive stalwart in most areas, Tim Kaine is smart, successful, experienced, and seemingly scandal-free. Harvard Law-educated, mayor, lt. governor, governor, senator. VP selections are as much about complementing the nominee as it is covering blind spots. Bill Clinton's selection of Al Gore is one successful example.

Electorally, the only blight on Kaine's record is the disastrous 2010 midterms when Kaine was DNC chair. But all the winds were blowing against Democrats in 2010, driven by lies about the ACA and the money unleashed after the Citizens United decision. He has won every single election he's run, and in a swing state. He drew praise as governor, including after the VA Tech massacre. Kaine endorsed the primary winner in 2008 and this time, further showing at least some kind of savvy for aligning himself with winning teams.

Particularly on the issue of guns, Kaine has shown no hesitation about leading on this topic, speaking passionately about his experience with VA Tech and as mayor of Richmond imposed stiff guidelines for illegal gun ownership. Gun violence is shaping up to be a central issue in 2016, and Kaine has not equivocated on the issue.

I believe Tim Kaine has also revealed moral strength in his opposition to the death penalty, in a time when it is easier to appear "tough on crime" by supporting it. Moreover, I don't believe there is a conflict between Kaine's personal opposition to abortion and his support of a woman's right to choose. This position is the same as Joe Biden's, who spoke eloquently in the 2012 VP debate about how he squares that circle by the fact that his Catholicism leads him to oppose abortion but because we don't live in a theocracy, he cannot use his religious beliefs to shape public law.

We have seen the obstinate effects of having a Republican Congress, and with multiple Supreme Court positions potentially open in the next administration, the makeup of Congress is a crucial factor. Were Clinton to pick Warren or Sherrod Brown, then Republican governors would select their replacements. Again, Clinton is calculating, and this is undoubtedly part of the equation.

Above all, the main line of attack against Trump this fall is going to be that he is unfit for the presidency, not serious about governance. A Clinton-Kaine ticket would be about resumes, furthering the contrast with Trump's shitshow. Presuming the vetting and interview process leaves Clinton comfortable saying that Kaine can step in as president, I believe she will go that route, because ultimately that's what one has to justify in their VP selection. Were Clinton to select Julian Castro, I believe she would forfeit credibility attacking Trump about his lack of experience. The San Antonio mayorship is not a strong executive position, and HUD is a low-profile Cabinet position (and Castro has been HUD secretary for only one term, at that). And if we're honest, the average person does not know Julian Castro's name any more than Tim Kaine's. It's not as if Trump is going to steal the Latino vote, and besides, Kaine is fluent in Spanish, served as a missionary in Honduras, and has a strong relationship with the Hispanic community.

I may turn out to be wrong. I also believe Clinton-Warren or Clinton-Castro would trash Trump. But my money is on Kaine.

[tonyt53]

1. Kaine would be a very good pick. The Biden comparison is real.

[Adrahil]

2. I could see it, but...

He would be a great big ball of MEH to me.

[TwilightZone]

3. Excellent analysis. One thought re: Castro...

I don't think Clinton would "forfeit credibility attacking Trump about his lack of experience" because Castro isn't running against Trump; Clinton is. On the experience front, she wipes the floor with him. Trump might try, but I think he would ultimately fail.

A small quibble, really. Excellent post.

[Music Man]

4. I agree

I would word that differently were I to write this post again. Castro and Trump are in different leagues. For the record, if it's not Kaine, I think she will pick Castro.

[texstad79]

5. I don't like raiding the Senate

when there are other qualified candidates available.

VA has a Dem governor to appoint a replacement, but are there any viable candidates to hold that seat?

2018 is likely to be a difficult year. There are several Senators facing tough re-election campaigns in red/purple states and we need as much of a buffer as possible.

[Zambero]

6. I get the concern, however...

The risk of keeping or losing the Senate seat is secondary. Kaine would be a very formidable candidate to round out the ticket and as such the Senate should not be off-limits based on political calculation. It's up to the party to field a candidate who can compete for and retain the Senate seat. But first and foremost, a national ticket that can win and support down ticket races is the first consideration.

[texstad79]

11. Honestly

HRC is going to win in a landslide, with just about anybody who isn't clinically insane on the ticket.

However, she won't be able to able to any appointments confirmed without a majority in the Senate.

[FSogol]

16. Lawrence O'Donnell pointed out last night that Democrats always pick a Senator.

Last non-senator chosen to be VP: Geraldine Ferraro (House of Reps)

[BlueCaliDem]

29. True. But we've never had a woman nominee before, so things appear to be changing. She can

write the new unwritten rule for VP running mates for the Democratic Party presidential nominees because her nomination alone has already done that.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

7. Boring centrist, horrible DNC chair.

Meh.

[geardaddy]

27. +1

[merrily]

28. .

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/x3j2f8/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-tim-kaine

[JonLeibowitz]

38. Wow Jon Stewart nailed that.

[merrily]

40. Your namesake is effing brilliant, both comedically and in general.

Politically, he was, on the Daily Show, too centrist for me, but I am a devoted admirer of his genius. I tried not to miss a single show, even if I had to catch up on the weekend On Demand. He ranged from very smart to dazzling.

[JonLeibowitz]

41. He is indeed. And his recent rhetoric has trended more populist and further left, since leaving TDS

[merrily]

47. Yes, I've noticed that as well. That's why Reply 40 is worded as it is.

And I've wondered about it.

Was it Comedy Channel policy that kept him more centrist?

Was it his writers?

Has he simply had a change of heart/mind since leaving the "daily" grind?

I tend to think it's the last thing, if indeed there was a change. I say that because, at times, he was downright vicious about Sanders, so much so that his viewers complaint A LOT and he did a conciliatory segment in which he played back his own comments and described them as "random." But, that segment was the first, and, I believe, also the last, time he said anything positive about Sanders.

[JonLeibowitz]

49. Hm, I'm missing something because I don't remember the 'vicious' segments on Sanders

There is of course the famous segment where he mocks the polished (faux) form of Clinton's media-driven campaign, that we Sanders folks loved to use. But I'm not familiar with the other segments -- was he ridiculing his platform or the extreme longshot version of his candidacy? Do you have the source on those?

I'll have to reserve judgement on the answer to your question, but I have always thought of it as the Comedy Channel's policies keeping him in check. I base that on seeing what he has been like after he left TDS and the shift in writers on TDS. People like John Oliver are also fairly left (and nonpartisan "sensible" in the sense that I expect Oliver to be against this ridiculous no-fly-no-buy type stuff) and explicitly pro-people post-TDS but TDS itself has gone to absolute centrist shit without Stewart there.

My view on his perception of the Dems, especially given interviews like that Kaine one and the interviews with other Dem leadership where he skewers them, is that his complaint is they too often fail to explicitly promote a left-liberal ideology and use the Republicans as the boogey-men against the base.

[merrily]

53. It was all the cliched stuff: his hair, he's old, he's crabby, etc.

One evening, there was even a ridiculous clip with a squirrel faked into either a photo or video of Sanders. Mean girl stuff. They weren't entire segments. The only segment I recall was the one where he re-visited some of his past criticism of Sanders--and I am not sure that was an entire segment. After that, he said only one mean thing and that was about the hair--well after Sanders had gotten the campaign haircut, so it was a pot shot squared. Something about how Sanders could not expect to be President going around looking as though he had gotten his dick stuck in a light socket (or maybe that was an outlet?) He said that during his last week on the show, if you want to look for it.

My source is me. As I said, I think I watched every single show, if not the day it aired, then I caught up weekends. And I have a pretty good memory, as shown by my remembering the Tim Kaine interview from 2010. I could not possibly know the dates when Stewart mocked Sanders, though, so, no, I can't link you to clips. I couldn't give you a source for Stewart mocking the way McConnell talks almost every time he showed a clip of McConnell speaking, either. If you never noticed it yourself, then you would have to take my word for it or disbelieve me, as you wished.

[JonLeibowitz]

54. Ok...sorry, I wasn't trying to be offensive to you.

Yes, I remember the light socket remark. It wasn't amusing.

[merrily]

55. You weren't offensive. I was trying to (a) give you confidence in my recollection and (b)

explain why I could not give you links.

You're one of my favorite posters. You would have to do something pretty bad before I would take offense.

[JonLeibowitz]

62. D'awwww

[merrily]

63. Please don't view my last comment as a challenge!

[RBInMaine]

57. I agree he needs to gin himself up, but we are choosing a VP not a movie star. As to the DNC,

the DNC rules should be changed so that the president doesn't get to pick who it is. Active legislators make terrible DNC chairs. You need someone who can do that job exclusively. Plus in 2010 Kaine drew a very shitty year that he couldn't do that much about.

Kaine is a VERY good choice in MANY respects.

[tabasco]

8. Kaine would be a good choice.

They really don't get much better than Tim.

[longship]

9. Happy to support your thread.

An R&K for you because you bring a well thought discussion to the board.

Myself, I would prefer not raiding the US Senate for VEEP, but I am at a loss of who to select.

Hopefully more DUers will contribute here.

[Qutzupalotl]

10. How about Gavin Newsom?

Lt. Gov. of CA, former SF Supervisor and Mayor, decent on the issues, young and charismatic?

[HarmonyRockets]

12. No.

He's running for governor of California.

[Qutzupalotl]

13. In 2018.

He could be a rising star for us in the future, though.

[asuhornets]

14. I hope not...nt

[Capt. Obvious]

15. That's exciting

said no one ever.

[DonCoquixote]

17. worst pick

I understand she may want to leave senators alone, but we have people like Xavier Becerra. Putting Kaine in would send a message: even though I have many qualified minorities this year, i will still pick the white southern guy.

[CharlotteVale]

19. +1 and I live in VA.

[BlueCaliDem]

31. + 2. I live in Latino-populated California. We need diversity and we're not going to get it if

she chooses a moderate, White Democratic male. She'll certainly lose the interest that she's generated among the Latino community when she picked Elizabeth Warren, Tim Kaine, and Julian Castro as her top three.

[DonCoquixote]

42. I confess is dislike Castro

because at THIS point, he has a light resume, and that will make him easier prey.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hispanic_and_Latino_Americans_in_the_United_States_Congress

I mean, she has people with thicker resumes to pick from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rub%C3%A9n_Hinojosa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loretta_Sanchez#U.S._House_of_Representatives
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xavier_Becerra

Not a thin resume in the bunch, and none would damage the senate. Sanchez and Beceraa would both fit Hillary like a glove, and do well in the West, making places like New Mexico and Texas a bit more purple. New Mexico can get it's own essay, seeing as how between Gary Johnson biting into the Trump base, and the fact that the GOP governor was one of Trump's biggest targets, that state could be ripe.

But, if Marco Rubio taught us anything, it is that we do not want to put a lightweight in this fight.

And, if Hillary does not pick a Latino, she at least should put in a Cory Booker or Warren. Tim Kaine will signal again that the party wants to hold on to it's conservadem southern boys, which will be a slap in the face to the very people that rejected Bernie Sanders. Add to this that Tim will also remind us of another Conservative back door man that Hillary is wisely keeping on the front porch, because every tine Bill opens his mouth, he raises fears that this is going to be a third term where he really gets to do what he wants, which is the LAST message Hillary sends to send.

[BlueCaliDem]

45. His name appears in the top 3 of her list. It means she knows something about him we don't.

I'll trust her judgment. But for nearly a year, his name had been bandied about in the press as a potential running mate and it's stayed in the top 3 of her list. This has leaked down into Texas and the Hispanic communities.

We'll see.

[JonLeibowitz]

37. +2

[JaneyVee]

18. Ugh. Hillary please pick Liz.

[madinmaryland]

20. I'm not a fan of Tim Kaine. He is a Democrat, but is more on the conservative side...

I would prefer either Senator Warren or Governor O'Malley to her second choice. Like Vice President Biden, either of the two would add vibrancy to Senator/Sos Clinton's campaign. Both would also be very good at attacking the tRump misadventure.

[BlueMTexpat]

25. I favor O'Malley myself.

My biggest hope is that Hillary will choose NO sitting Dem Sen, Rep or Gov. She needs them right where they are!!!!

But I will not second-guess her choice, whoever it may be.

[Vote2016]

21. Kaine doubles down on "change = bad; status quo = good" which wins no votes but loses many.

[Vinca]

22. She'd be hard pressed to find someone duller and more status quo.

No. Let's try for someone who tends left rather than right for a change.

[alarimer]

24. Ugh.

Nope.

[kentuck]

26. Why?

How many votes does he get her ??

[itsrobert]

30. Meh

He's nothing to get excited about.

[yallerdawg]

32. Point of order.

"For better or for worse, Hillary Clinton is very calculating."

Is this an objective view of a presidential nominee, including Trump, or even Bernie? Any politician?

Or is this just a casual, offhand...something?

Calculating

1. acting in a scheming and ruthlessly determined way.

synonyms: cunning · crafty · wily · shrewd · sly · scheming · devious · designing · conniving · Machiavellian · foxy · subtle

http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/calculating

I don't perceive Hillary to be all that "crafty, cunning, wily" - calculating.

More like thoughtful. Reserved. Cautious. Imperfect. Human.

But if you look at the volume of "self-inflicted" chaos that has surrounded her for three decades, "Machiavellian Bond villain" is the last thing that comes to mind!

Of course - we all have our unique perceptions.

[BlueCaliDem]

33. PoC have worked very hard to give Hillary the win in the primaries. That should be respected.

Clearly, we also need diversity on the ticket.

The lack of experience or the "too young" moniker some Democrats here are giving Julian Castro as reasons he shouldn't be considered, fall away because Hillary, herself, is no spring chicken and she has oodles of experience.

Also, he understands Spanish perfectly well and has been taking Spanish lessons since 2010. But as he's already said, "...being fluent in Spanish does not define whether or not you're Latino." Just as speaking fluent Spanish doesn't automatically make you a Latino.

What he can bring to the ticket is a chance to win Texas for our Party since Hispanics have gained and, most likely, outpaced Whites in that crucial State now. Seeing a Latino on the top ticket would energize and inspire Latinos to register and vote for Clinton/Castro all across the country now that Rubio has flip-flopped and is now running for re-election. We need to win Rubio's seat this election.

Also, he's not a Senator or a U.S. Rep, so we don't take anyone from Congress, and everyone believes that he's been groomed by President Obama for this position. He's also young enough to run for the presidency in 2024 when he'll be 49.

[RBInMaine]

34. I agree completely. He or Sherrod Brown would be best. But Brown would be replaced by an R.

[Metric System]

35. Warren, Becerra or bust.

[StevieM]

50. I think she is going to pick Xavier Becerra. And he is a good pick. (eom)

[hollowdweller]

36. He's the one most like Clinton I think.

Very liberal on social issues but conservative economically.

[floriduck]

39. Perfect.

[bernie_FTW]

43. I hope it is Tim Caine or Sherrod Brown

[DonCoquixote]

44. the meat of the matter

"For better or for worse, Hillary Clinton is very calculating. Announcing Warren will excite the hell out of progressives like me and those of us who populate most of DU. It will dominate the news cycle and be a huge gesture toward Bernie Sanders supporters. But I don't believe excitement is part of Clinton's calculus. "

And therein lies the problem.

Yes, she made it to be the nominee, but, she did so in a manner that was not inspiring, because she refused to give the base the red meat. Minorities came through for you Hillary, they did so enough where you beat Bernie DESPITE the way he excited many working class whites. This is where payoff comes, where you prove that No, this is NOT going to be a third term of the Bill Clinton administration; picking Tim kaine will signal exactly that.

[phleshdef]

46. Ugh. It doesn't get any more lack luster.

[Butterflies]

48. I like Tim Kaine

He has been good on environmental issues in Virginia.

[think]

51. Numerous Wall Street donors identified Tim Kaine as their preferred vice president

Numerous Wall Street donors identified Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as their preferred vice presidential nominee.

http://fortune.com/2016/06/20/wall-street-elizabeth-warren/

[MFM008]

52. an anti-abortion guy

with 0 excitability.
I dunno. I would go with Warren or Castro first.

[CobaltBlue]

56. Tim Kaine was more a 2008-type choice

The 70th governor of Virginia, and the junior United States senator from that state, Tim Kaine was ripe for being picked as Barack Obama’s vice-presidential running mate in 2008.

They would have made for a more youthful pair. (Kaine was born three years before Obama. By comparison, eventual nominee—and 47th vice president of the United States—Joe Biden is 19 years older than Obama.)

I think the 2016 vice-presidential nominee, on the Democratic side, needs to be generally perceived as much more genuinely progressive than the candidate on the top of the ticket.

I suggest a wise choice for 2016 would not be Tim Kaine.

[DemocraticWing]

58. That would hurt her campaign IMO. Who gets fired up for Tim Kaine?

[John Poet]

59. NO to Kaine. Hillary needs someone to her left

to balance the ticket ideologically.

[Bluenorthwest]

60. Pro life and homophobic, Kaine was a terrible Party Chair in part because he's far more

conservative than most Democrats. He would be a strong negative on the ticket for me.

[John Poet]

61. Ditto.