The Clinton Campaign Seems To Think Pennsylvania Is In The Bag

[RandySF]

Many Democrats take Pennsylvania for granted because it hasn’t voted Republican in a presidential election since 1988. But in 2012, its margin for President Obama was just 5.4 percentage points, equal to his margin in Colorado and less than his margins in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — all states included in early pro-Clinton ad reservations this year. Moreover, unlike those four states, Pennsylvania has trended toward Republicans over time, thanks to its older, whiter and more working-class electorate.

It’s true that Obama didn’t do much advertising in the state in 2012, but then again, neither did Republicans or the Romney campaign.

To be fair, pro-Clinton strategists aren’t simply throwing darts at the map. The Clinton campaign employs a phalanx of pollsters and targeting experts, and aides hint that its sophisticated data analytics contradict recent public polls depicting a very tight contest in Pennsylvania. Asked directly about its lack of an ad buy, the Clinton campaign declined comment except to confirm that it has placed field staff in the state.

Their decision not to spend in Pennsylvania may yet be vindicated, and of course, the state won’t matter if Clinton is headed for a national blowout win. But there is ample publicly available data to suggest Pennsylvania could be problematic for Clinton in a close national contest.

Since November of 2008, Democrats’ voter registration edge in the Keystone State has shrunk from 14.2 percent to 11.1 percent — a pattern that more closely resembles the rightward cultural shift of West Virginia than the leftward migration of New Jersey. In fact, in 60 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties (save for Philadelphia and six other eastern Pennsylvania counties), the party registration trend over that time has favored Republicans.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-clinton-campaign-seems-to-think-pennsylvania-is-in-the-bag/

[MFM008]

1. i dunno

she says she has a 50 state plan but I think it will be within 4 points in PA.
I have crazy gop relatives there.

[840high]

2. Agree.

[Orrex]

10. My county is reliably red, alas

The spreadsheet available HERE shows redistered PA Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 919,550, with non-Dem/non-Repub voters numbering 1,091,389.

Still a fairly reliable blue state, but it shouldn't be taken for granted. There's a lot of red between the blue strongholds of Pittsburgh & Philadelphia.

[Maru Kitteh]

3. It's June.

And I trust her strategy.

[athena]

4. I phonebanked and canvassed in Pennsylvania in 2012.

The Obama campaign did not take Pennsylvania for granted. There was a lot of grassroots activity there. Television ads are known to be the least effective strategy for getting out the vote, so using a lack of television advertising to argue that Obama took Pennsylvania for granted is a non-sequitur.

The thing about Pennsylvania is that there are very few undecided voters there. Most people are either Republican or Democratic, and there is no way of changing their minds. So winning Pennsylvania comes down to getting out the vote. That may be why the Obama campaign did not waste money on TV advertising.

Now, unlike Pennsylvania, there was no effort put into New Jersey. None whatsoever that I know of. But every week for months, people would drive over from New Jersey to Pennsylvania to phone bank and to canvas. And the whole thing was organized in detail by the Obama campaign itself.

[OnDoutside]

7. Great post.

[glennward]

5. PA will be tough.

Especially in the coal mining area and the bedroom communities like Bedford and surrounding areas. These people don't care if Satan himself run as long as he carries an R before his name.

[geek tragedy]

6. I doubt they are actually taking it for granted, and we do know they have access

to reams of data on a precinct-by-precinct level that the rest of us don't have.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. "Dem voter registration edge in the Keystone State has shrunk from 14.2 percent to 11.1 percent"

Yet Democrats outnumber Republicans in PA by just over 1 million.

As soon as Obama sets foot in Philly (and other larger cities in PA), that will make the difference. When you look at the voting maps, a small number of counties (which contain the largest number of voters due to large populations) will outweigh all those rural counties across the state with populations equal to one neighborhood in Philadelphia.

[BumRushDaShow]

12. We usually do throw the state every time

Generally by 300,000 - 400,000 votes. Philly has almost 800,000 registered Democrats.

[yellowcanine]

13. I think the Clinton campaign has a strategy for PA based on GOTV.

They will do ad buys or not do ad buys accordingly. People need to calm down.

[MineralMan]

14. I doubt that very much.

However, as in all states, Democrats in PA need to conduct a vigorous GOTV effort, not just for the presidential election, but down-ballot as well.

This needs to be a 50-state year for GOTV. We truly can take the House back if we really, really try. With Trump as the Republican nominee, turnout of Republicans is going to set records for low turnout. We need to turn out as high a percentage of Democrats as we possibly can, even in red states. We can regain a majority in the House in 2016.

Let's do that!