New General Election Poll: Trump 43%, Clinton 39%, 12% someone else, 5% undecided

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

Starting to get a little scared here. A Trump presidency would be a disaster akin to the Brexit.

[RBInMaine]

1. Rasmussen? Are you serious. Rasmussen is right wing SHIT. STOP POSTING THIS CRAP!

[scscholar]

81. Agreed. I thought this was against the new rules.

I'm so confused by the new rules. I wish there was a page that explained them.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

83. Yes, you can't get more RW than Rasmussen... why isn't this shit banned? I don't get it.

[1StrongBlackMan]

53. It's not a hobby ... It's just a poorly played pretense at concern.

[Maru Kitteh]

59. win.

[ismnotwasm]

60. Yup

[SoLeftIAmRight]

80. the concern is real

on that you can be assured

[MineralMan]

3. All the more reason to redouble GOTV efforts, eh?

Don't get scared. Get ready to work on GOTV. That's my suggestion.

Help Democrats to flip Georgia! That's what you can do to help. Please tell me you'll work on that.

[JRLeft]

6. Hillary will win this election by 15-20 points. It's a wrap!

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

54. I think with an attitude like that we could end up being blindsided...

...just like the Brexit Remain voters were.

[JRLeft]

56. I disagree. Trump is that bad.

[brush]

84. Not our first rodeo. Rasmussen is not credible.

[MohRokTah]

4. RASMUSSEN!!!!!!!!

[NurseJackie]

48. I know, right?

[GoCubsGo]

49. I knew it would be them before I even read the OP.

[MohRokTah]

50. The same pollster touted by FreeRepublic throughout the 2012 race.

And perusing the site moments ago to check, they are STILL the only pollster allowed to be posted there without the possibility of being banned.

[NurseJackie]

51. Rasmussen is the HA Goodman of polling organizations.

[MADem]

66. ....

Couldn't have said it better myself!

[tallahasseedem]

91. +1

Nothing more needs to be said. Except that they're trying to drive a wedge in Democrats and depress our turnout.

[JRLeft]

5. That poll is trash. Nothing more needs to be said.

[woolldog]

8. This is Rassmussen trying to piggyback

on the Quinipiac poll results (that had Clinton at only +2) to create a false narrative that Trump is surging. Unfortunately for Rassmussen, there are a bunch of other GE polls released today that flatly contradict Rassmussen's poll and are a lot more credible.

Rassmusen did the same thing in the 2012 election with Obama and Romney. When an outlier bad poll came out for Obama, Rassmussen would come out with its own poll that was bad for Obama. I posted then about this trend and how I thought Rass was massaging the numbers.

[JRLeft]

12. That polling firm usually over samples republicans.

[MohRokTah]

14. They did the same thing in '08 after the Palin announcement, too.

They tried to create a false narrative of a McCain boost from the Palin announcement when multiple other polls showed him sinking even further because the world could tell immediately she was a fucking moron.

And on every liberal internet forum I browsed during '08 and '12, the concern trolls always touted Rasmussen.

[uponit7771]

7. rAssMusen is now a credible poll?!!? Is this DU?!

[Renew Deal]

9. What are you doing to help Hillary win?

[still_one]

10. Gee, are you really scared? Why did you leave out the Reuters/IPOS poll? Clinton 41 Trump 32

or the PPP poll? Clinton 48 Trump 44

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Doesn't fit your talking point perhaps, so you post the rasmussen poll.

Excuse me while I remain skeptical of your concern

[BlueNoMatterWho]

16. Will the Rasmussen poll be considered in the RCP average?

[still_one]

34. Yes they do, and Hillary is ahead with Rasmussen included in there. The OP is selectively

filtering, which doesn't tell the full story.

However, National Polls, while they may serve as a talking point, do not represent an accurate picture of the general election.

For one thing, states determine through the electoral college who will be the next president, and national polls don't fully describe the effect that more populous states have on the electoral college.

Right after a contentious primary, and before the Democratic Convention, I view most of the polls with skepticism. After the Democratic convention, that is where I believe most people will start to pay attention

[SheenaR]

11. I fully understand

that Rasmussen is very much a Republican leaning poll outlet and has been for a long time.

We post polls here frequently that have left leaning biases confirmed by Silver's analysis of the pollsters.

Attack the methodology? Fine.

Don't jump down the author's throat because you don't like them reporting facts.

I see this as a major outlier, but to attack someone for posting it is stupid.

[woolldog]

15. +1

Well said. I like to know the good the bad and the ugly when it comes to the polling. Not that I'll believe it all, but I want as much info as possible. And I hate the idea of people not posting info they have for fear of being criticized because the result is not to our liking.

[rocktivity]

13. Ludicrous -- there IS no someone else

rocktivity

[Politicalboi]

33. Jill Stein is someone else

Unless of course she should heel. And she may move over if Bernie goes Green.

[rocktivity]

36. Then her name should have been included

"ANYONE else" would have been a more honest and professional choice.


rocknation

[Maru Kitteh]

61. Weird thing for you to say, "if Bernie goes Green"

Sanders is voting for Hillary Clinton, so it would be weird for him to "go green" - since he's voting for the Democratic Nominee.

And Jill who?

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

71. Anti-vax "Doctor" Jill Stein?

Fuck her.

[apnu]

17. National polls mean nothing.

They mean nothing today, tomorrow and on November 8th, 2016. State polls are important, its the states EV's that elect the President.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

18. Then maybe you should start volunteering for the Clinton campaign

Especially if you are in a swing state or a republican leaning state

[Gothmog]

19. A rassie poll?

You got to be kidding

[workinclasszero]

20. Rasmussen = republican

Nate Sliver says: Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President
By Nate Silver

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-has-a-20-percent-chance-of-becoming-president/

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

21. Well I didn't know, The aggregators usually include them on their poll averages nt

[BlueNoMatterWho]

23. Why would they do that if its a right wing poll? And I agree it leans Republican.

[Lord Magus]

25. That's because Republicans love Rasmussen & the aggregators are terrified of being accused of bias.

Nate Silver has written many articles about Rasmussen's inaccuracy. 538 gives them a "C" grade and says they average +2 toward Republicans, but that doesn't account for stunts like this poll which includes a nonexistent "someone else" in candidate options.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

31. Yes, just looked and they include PPP polls that have a (D) next to the name.

as well.

[Godhumor]

30. Aggregators include polls that can show their methodologies and cross-tabs

Rasmussen does both of these things as does the OANN/Gravis poll that also gets counted. They don't care about the partisanship of the pollster.

[LexVegas]

22. "Starting to get a little scared here." Uh huh. nt

[obamanut2012]

86. ikr?

[LenaBaby61]

24. Rasmussen, PPP, Quinnipiac...

Are or have turned into outlier polls.

I know Nate Silver gives Q polling a high grade, but they're the same folks who one month ago had Bernie losing 10 points off a 14 point lead over Trump in Ohio when Bernie was doing well in the primaries. Q poll also is "projecting" currently that the white vote WILL increase by 2% more this election cycle and that minority voting will go down by that same 2%. They also had a few other "weird" stats in that Q poll from a month ago IIRC saying that Trump was winning 33% of the Hispanic vote, and I find that HIGHLY unlikely. They're the same folks who gave us a Pres. Romney and Pres. McCain aren't they?

As we know, the news folks LOVE this 'horse race' narrative, which is why you had them touting two polls late out of California saying that Bernie had a chance at winning California or was only 1 point down there vs Clinton when the race was not that close (I live in CA., and no poll ever had Bernie ahead or that close here but those 2 'horse-race' polls late). The methodology of those 2 polls was "odd" to put it mildly, which is WHY the primary race. For goodness sake, PPP asked people in their latest poll from yesterday if they'd rather have an asteroid (or meteorite) hit the earth or vote for Hillary or Trump. What kind of ridiculous questioning is that? Polling is only as good as the methodology you're using and the questions you ask, which is why the Q poll, PPP and especially Rasmussen polls been "questioned" on MANY an occasion during these last few election cycles.

[tonyt53]

26. Lay off the polls until after Labor Day. But even then, lay off the RNC rag Rasmussen.

[Lord Magus]

27. When a poll includes a fictional "someone else" in their choices, they should be dismissed.

A stunt like that is bad even by Rasmussen standards.

[woolldog]

37. Thanks for pointing that out.

Did they do the same in previous polls? Their previous poll had Clinton up 4 now she's down 4 in a week? That's absurd. Rassmussen is playing the public for fools.

[BlueCaliDem]

28. Ok, GeorgiaPeanuts, if you subscribe to Rasmussen, what are you going to do to help Hillary Clinton?

Don't get scared! Get organized and GOTV!

[Cali_Democrat]

29. "Starting to get a little scared here"

[Godhumor]

32. If it helps at all, here is Harry Enten's (538) comment on this poll

Someone walks up to me and says there is one national poll that has the Republican ahead. Without knowing anything else, I'd say Rasmussen.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/748528979339055104

[MyNameGoesHere]

35. You're scared? Well I am sure??????? can save the day!

[Peacetrain]

38. This same Rasmussen that predicted a win for Romney the night before the election??

[lunamagica]

39. You are not scared. You are loving this poll. Otherwise you'd post the polls that have her ahead

of him.

But you don't post those. I think it's because they scare you. You are afraid she (gasp) could win

[SidDithers]

40. Nailed it...nt

Sid

[Scurrilous]

74. Yep.

[Squinch]

41. Your slip is showing.

[David__77]

42. I do not think that Trump is "collapsing."

I think the a large segment of the Republican Party does not want him. I also think that he's a viable candidate. Finally, I think that Trump would lose and not win if the election were held tomorrow.

[WI_DEM]

43. So with all the good Hillary polls you pull up one by Rasmussen--a GOP organization

and give your faux "starting to get a little scared here."

[Zen Democrat]

44. Rasmussen also had Romney running away with the 2012 election. Totally partisan poll.

[Renew Deal]

45. Interesting and not surprising that you have no answer to this question

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2227437

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

52. I will cross that bridge when the time comes, for now I am supporting Bernie in his platform fight.

[blue neen]

73. The time is NOW,

especially since this poll scared you so much. I can't understand why anyone who wants to help Hillary's campaign would wait.

[andym]

46. Quinnipiac also showed a tightening race yesterday

So there is a good chance that the trend really has been in favor of Trump in the last week. That said there is plenty of time for things to improve.

[LenaBaby61]

57. Qunnipiac...

Also is using the methodology that 2% more whites will vote this time around, and that minority voting will go down by that same 2%. They also 'believe' Trump has at least 33% of the Hispanic vote and I find that hard to believe.

Trump had one of the worst weeks ever, and his polling went up so much that it reversed (by double digits) a much better week that Hillary & Liz Warren had together?

[uponit7771]

58. +1, I'd like more data on the Qunnipiac methodology... 33% Hispanic doesn't mean Hispanic

... non white which is what the other polls measure.

[yellowcanine]

64. The EV data says otherwise and it is what matters. HRC 353 DT 183

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512228168

And the trend is toward HRC in the battleground states. Hard to see how DT turns that around with hardly any national campaign organization and little money for ads. And HRC has a strong national organization and is already dropping millions on ads into the battleground states.

[Doctor Jack]

47. Rasmussen has shown Trump leading for most of the past year

When most pollsters were showing Clinton and Sanders ahead of Trump by 15+ points, Rasmussen had Trump ahead by 2 or 3 points. In 2012, Rasmussen had Romney leading for the entire election and right before the election, predicted that Romney would win in a landslide.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/going_out_on_a_limb_romney_beats_obama_handily

Now, I'm not sure if the handwringers among us remember, but Romney lost....by a lot.

[DemonGoddess]

55. I'm not even going to bother

with alerting this garbage, because it IS garbage. As it is, alerting is something I rarely do anyway. For something that skates the line for ToS, it's not worth the hassle.

But Rasmussen??? REALLY????

[MFM008]

63. 18 days to the first convention

now the media wouldn't want anyone going in there with blowout numbers would they?
So lets make it a race.
Outlier
ALL Rasmusson polls are outliers
They had Romney as president remember?

They need to stop polling repubes on land lines.

[MADem]

65. LOL @ Rasmussen! They had Romney in a walk, too.

If Rasmussen is saying go right, you'd do well to go left!

[ibeplato]

67. President Romney?

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2012/10/29/romney-rasmussen-win-election/

[stevenleser]

68. It's not just that Rasmussen is wrong most of the time. It's that we know why.

They consistently oversample Republicans in their polls.

I haven't even checked this time and I would bet good money they have done this again. I'll post later after I check.

[stevenleser]

69. The demographics for their poll is now behind a paywall. But this tells you all you need to know...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2008/the_value_of_party_weighting_for_a_tracking_poll

"As we have noted many times, there is a disagreement within the polling industry as to whether or not polling firms should “weight” or adjust their sample to reflect a specific mix of Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters"
----------------------------------------------
No there is no disagreement. The best way to make a poll accurate is to use stratified sampling to make sure your sample accurately reflects the demographics of the population in every way. Party identification, race, religion, gender, orientation, etc.

The only folk who disagree are Rasmussen because a completely accurate result is not their intent.

[emulatorloo]

70. Rasmussen claimed Romney would win right up to Election Day 2012

They aren't credible.

[grossproffit]

72. GE polls are meaningless, just ask Romney. State polls are the only polls that matter.

I said the same thing during the primaries.

[JI7]

75. looks more like someone got scared at all the other polls showing Trump doing horribly

[ram2008]

76. Rasmussen so throw it out

That being said, national polls have it at about 4-5 point Clinton lead nationally. That is a bit scary, but we'll know more after the conventions.

[SheilaT]

77. Well, gosh. Back during the primaries lots of polls showed Hillary Clinton not

exactly besting Donald Trump in one on one matchups. Why is anyone surprised that those results are still showing up?

There was another candidate who consistently bested Trump everywhere, but oddly enough he did not prevail in the primary. Just don't be shocked that things haven't changed all that much since the end of the primary season.

[unblock]

78. a trump presidency would be akin to brexit like a nuclear bomb is akin to a bb gun.

brexit was a stupid, self-inflicted wound, but people are making much more of it than it is.

they already have their own currency, and the trading relationships have to remain -- the uk is too dependent on the eu for trade.

it's a pointless administrative hassle for the government and businesses alike for them to effectively swap one big bureaucratic system for another, which, at the end of the day, will be remarkably similar out of necessity.

even immigration can't change much because businesses will howl too much. at a minimum, anyone already in the uk will be grandfathered in, and if anything immigration will increase so people can get in before the anticipated cutoff. moreover, the eu is already pressing for freedom of movement as a precondition for continued free access to the eu market.

they will waste a whole lot of time and effort to change very little.


trump, on the other hand, would be an unmitigated disaster of monumental proportions with tremendous lasting effects on our society, our government, our politics, our international relations, etc.

[RandySF]

79. They projected a Romney victory in 2012.

[silvershadow]

82. Whatever else has been said upthread, all polls are meaningless in my opinion.

I don't trust anything are this point. I am just going to let it all play out now. And support our good Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. I wish us all good luck.

[obamanut2012]

85. I'm so happy to see you back with your "Hillary is Gonna Lose" polls

Missed you, bud!

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

90. I posted one before?

I looked through "My Posts" and didn't see any such thing. But awesome baseless accusation about my motives.

[Night Watchman]

87. RASMUSSEN?????

[Sheepshank]

88. WTF...isn't there a rule about posting RW trash?

[MaggieD]

89. LOL!

Thanks for the concern.

Also, Trump is not going to be president.