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Thu Jun 30, 2016, 04:52 PM

Battleground bloodbath: Clinton leads Trump in 7 swing states

Iowa, Clinton leads by 4 points.
Michigan, Clinton leads 17 points.
Florida, Clinton leads 14 points.
Pennsylvania, Clinton leads 14 points.
North Carolina, Clinton leads 10 points.
Ohio, Clinton leads 9 points.
Virginia, Clinton leads 7 points.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/06/clinton-trump-swing-state-poll-224923#ixzz4D66Kx4a6
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Reply Battleground bloodbath: Clinton leads Trump in 7 swing states (Original post)
BlueStateLib Jun 2016 OP
uponit7771 Jun 2016 #1
DanTex Jun 2016 #2
CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #21
doc03 Jun 2016 #3
woolldog Jun 2016 #5
mjjoe Jul 2016 #14
woolldog Jul 2016 #15
creoledna Jul 2016 #31
Doctor Jack Jul 2016 #6
getagrip_already Jul 2016 #23
Cosmocat Jul 2016 #18
Maru Kitteh Jun 2016 #4
tclambert Jul 2016 #7
DownriverDem Jul 2016 #9
SCantiGOP Jul 2016 #10
DownriverDem Jul 2016 #8
CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #24
yardwork Jul 2016 #11
CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #28
yardwork Jul 2016 #29
mnhtnbb Jul 2016 #12
Coyotl Jul 2016 #13
Cosmocat Jul 2016 #17
ffr Jul 2016 #16
SmittynMo Jul 2016 #19
getagrip_already Jul 2016 #25
CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #20
Brother Buzz Jul 2016 #22
CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #30
oasis Jul 2016 #26
getagrip_already Jul 2016 #27
Scurrilous Jul 2016 #32

Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Thu Jun 30, 2016, 04:56 PM

1. tRumpis counting on the GOP floor to get him to the election with little cost, it will but its only

... 40% of likely voter electorate

10 million more whites voted in 2012 but 36% of them went to Obama... which brought his white vote up... not looking good for Donald Dump

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Thu Jun 30, 2016, 04:56 PM

2. I think if she wins any one of FL, VA, or NC, she's basically got it.

Things are looking good.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #2)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 12:40 PM

21. Proper context is this…

 

If Donald Trump is winning a Republican pickup of the presidency, the first states he carries are all 24 which voted for Mitt Romney in 2012.

They are worth 206 electoral votes.

If Donald Trump fails to hold any state which carried for Mitt Romney…it's because the voters are not flipping the White House to the Republicans and Donald Trump.

If Hillary Clinton wins this presidential election, making it a third consecutive cycle won by the Democratic Party, and she outperforms nationally how Barack Obama (by +3.86) fared nationwide in 2012, the first state to get flipped would be North Carolina.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Thu Jun 30, 2016, 05:51 PM

3. These polls are f---d up. I just heard a couple hours ago that polls have

Trump and Clinton in a dead heat in Pennsylvania and Trump hasn't spent a penny there. They said he figured he can carry Pennsylvania
and has only just started putting together a ground game there. We have polls that totally contradict each other every day. I seen one from NBC that has Trump beating or tied with Clinton in the swing states then turn on Fox of all places and they have Trump down 6 points.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Thu Jun 30, 2016, 11:37 PM

5. Go to 538.com

 

It will help you make sense of the polls. In short, don't put weight on any one poll but look at the averages.

Also check out the following link for all the latest polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

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Response to woolldog (Reply #5)

Sat Jul 2, 2016, 08:14 PM

14. Have to write it out: fivethirtyeight.com

Though maybe Nate Silver should have sprung for the rights to 538.com too.

The page to bookmark for the presidential election: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

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Response to mjjoe (Reply #14)

Sat Jul 2, 2016, 09:30 PM

15. Thanks.

 

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Response to mjjoe (Reply #14)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 09:59 PM

31. More informative is the ratings of the other polls by 838

See: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

This will explain a lot of the variations.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Fri Jul 1, 2016, 12:04 AM

6. Ok, worry wart, lets take a look

There have been two recent polls taken in Pennsylvania. One from 10 days ago shows Clinton with a 4 point lead and one from yesterday shows a 14 point lead. Average them together and she has a 9 point lead over Trump in Pennsylvania. The last poll to show them tied was from almost a month ago.

Let's look at some of the other averages and we won't even include the extensive battle ground polls that came out yesterday, which politico described as "a bloodbath" for Trump.

Florida=Clinton +6

Iowa=Clinton +5

Michigan=Clinton +8

New Hampshire=Clinton +5

Ohio=Clinton +4

Virginia=Clinton +4

Wisconsin=Clinton +9

North Carolina=Clinton +0.1


So worse case scenario, not including the best polls for Clinton which also happen to be the most recent, we can describe Clinton's lead in the battleground states to be somewhere between "kicking trump's ass" and "absolutely crushing him".

A word to the wise, if you hang on every fox news report and worry about every outlier poll that comes out, it is going to be a very long and stressful four months for you. Go have a drink and relax a little bit.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #6)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 12:50 PM

23. but but but.....

the cheetoh furor hasn't even started to campaign yet, or so says the moldy madman who would be his veep pick.

Of course, he doesn't have any plans to campaign, outside of twitter and call in shows.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #3)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 08:01 AM

18. This poll was conducted June 10 to June 22

it is basically three weeks old already.

That said, yeah, polls are ALL OVER the place.

Agree that 538 and other sites that compile polls will even things out a bit.

Anything now is in muddy water, not even mud, much less wet cement.

Things are starting to settle a bit about a month the conventions.

Let's see how things look mid to late August.

Even then, some big economic or security issue could flip thiings.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Thu Jun 30, 2016, 10:46 PM

4. I believe that margin is even wider in IA now. Time to start working on "soft" states too

which will be many, this season.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Fri Jul 1, 2016, 12:21 PM

7. She can win Michigan easily with a policy to not poison children.

Just keep reminding people that Republican government poisoned children. Hammer that message and she could get some down ticket wins, too.

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Response to tclambert (Reply #7)

Fri Jul 1, 2016, 01:14 PM

9. +8?

I've seen where HRC is up 17 in Michigan.

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Response to DownriverDem (Reply #9)

Fri Jul 1, 2016, 07:16 PM

10. And I think that proves

that polls this early are irrelevant. It's like predicting next year's Super Bowl champion. You don't know what is going to transpire between now and then. And, there are millions of potential voters who haven't yet decided if they'll vote or, if they do, who they will support.
That being said, if I had to bet now I would probably take Clinton with 4-1 odds. The big unknowns are a recession or a terrorist attack close to the election.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Fri Jul 1, 2016, 01:13 PM

8. Yea Michigan!

Michigan has not gone for a repub since 1988 with Pappy Bush. We have been taken over by RWNJ repubs and a business man governor with no political experience who pretty much signs whatever comes his way Why did this happen? Sad to say it's because the left didn't vote in the midterms of 2010 & 2014. Let's hope folks vote in the midterms of 2018 or it will be more of 2 steps forward and 3 steps back. Michigan is gerrymandered big time. Who is in charge when the next census is taken in 2020 will decide here how the district lines are drawn. It is so disgusting to watch these RWNJs destroy our state.

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Response to DownriverDem (Reply #8)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 12:54 PM

24. Michigan is…

 

Michigan is typically about +6 in its Democratic tilt.

It voted close to national margins, the popular vote, in 1984, 1988, and 1992. (Those three elections essentially gave Michigan its "swing state" status so overhyped in recent elections to indicate political analysts were living off the past.)

The state of Michigan has trended and established itself as Democratic base state with and after 1992.

1992: Bill Clinton, Democratic pickup winner (he unseated Republican president George Bush), +5.56; Michigan, Democratic pickup for Clinton at +7.39 (Spread: D+1.83)

1996: Bill Clinton, Democratic hold (re-election), +8.52; Michigan, D, +13.21 (Spread: D+4.69)

2000: George W. Bush, Republican pickup winner, –0.52; Michigan, D [Al Gore], +5.14 (Spread: D+4.62)

2004: George W. Bush, Republican hold (re-election), +2.46; Michigan, D [John Kerry], D+3.42 (Spread: D+5.88)

2008: Barack Obama, Democratic pickup winner, +7.26; Michigan, D [Obama], +16.44 (Spread: D+9.18)

2012: Barack Obama, Democratic hold (re-election), +3.86; Michigan, D [Obama], +9.48 (Spread: D+5.62)

These six election cycles means that Michigan has tilted an average of D+5.30.

If you take away 1992, because it wasn't that much a Democratic tilt (and that was the beginning of realigning what we recognize with today's map; like with Democrats also routinely carrying what is now their base with additional states like California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey), the average from 1996 to 2012 is: D+5.99. (My calculator told me 29.99 cumulative, over those five, and then a divide by 5, brought it to 5.998. We may as well call it D+6.)

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Fri Jul 1, 2016, 07:47 PM

11. Maybe we can get rid of our moran guv in NC and help turn the Senate blue.

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Response to yardwork (Reply #11)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 08:53 PM

28. yardwork—It may very well happen.

 

Democratic pickups in 2016 North Carolina on three counts:

• U.S. President

• U.S. Senate

• Governor of North Carolina

Since 1972, North Carolina has had the coattails effect of carrying for the same political party for both U.S. President and U.S. Senate. It may have been no coincidence the state became a Democratic pickup for both Barack Obama and Kay Hagan (who unseated Elizabeth Dole) in 2008. It may work out that way again here in 2016. And it can very much spread to the governorship.

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Response to CobaltBlue (Reply #28)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 09:06 PM

29. I'm feeling very hopeful. We have to GOTV.

Have to fight the voter suppression imposed by the Republicans.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Sat Jul 2, 2016, 08:36 AM

12. No way is Hillary up 10 points in NC. In her dreams.

The latest polls show her up by 2 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton-5538.html

She is coming to campaign with President Obama here in Charlotte on Tuesday. Dem Candidate for Governor Roy Cooper
and Dem Candidate for Senate Deborah Ross are joining them.

It will be interesting to see how she polls after the attention that will be generated from Tuesday's appearance.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Sat Jul 2, 2016, 12:11 PM

13. Huge problem with these polls. Trump is not the nominee yet.

 

Pollsters need to ask "Who would you vote for if the nominee is Romney?'

Unless they can get someone like Bill Gates to run, Romney is the guy they may go with. Republicans won't nominate a guy who is accused of raping a 13-year-old.

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Response to Coyotl (Reply #13)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 07:58 AM

17. The biggest problem with this poll - it was from June 10 to June 22

I mean, if they just released it, it is already dated.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 01:47 AM

16. Expect all the major networks to start kicking in the HRC negatives

Op-eds, negative press, pictures of her frowning, while dressing up Drumpf as the light that shines in our hearts.

To do otherwise would be a disaster for their ratings and their corporate handlers.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 08:07 AM

19. Why get all excited?

It's all gonna change in a few weeks.

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Response to SmittynMo (Reply #19)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 12:55 PM

25. maybe, but i'd rather be ...

on our side then their's right now. Sure, he may get a bump from the connvention, but so can hillary.

You NEVER want to be this far down, in so many places, in July.

And I ain't buying that crap about uber and airbnb. The cheetoh furor has exactly one voting block. One. And he isn't going to change that. All he can hope for is turnout.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 12:27 PM

20. The context is excellent

 

From the report:

"These results demonstrated that Donald Trump would underperform Hillary Clinton by an average of 10 percentage points."

So, we have Hillary Clinton +10.

That would likely suggest: Donald Trump 44%; Hillary Clinton 54%.

If this were to actually become the result, Michigan +17 and Ohio +9 are about right.

The rest are not.

Virginia would be at +10 or +11. (It nailed the popular-vote margin better than any other state in both 2008 and 2012. It was off, in both, only by 0.96 and 0.02.)

North Carolina would be where Iowa is: +4 or +5. (It would be about 5 or 6 under the national result. To flip the state, Democrats would need to win nationally by +6. And it is the first state which would flip from 2012 Republican, a pickup that year for Mitt Romney, to 2016 Democratic.)

Iowa would be at +12. (It really is voting like a bellwether state; only, it tilts about 2 points more Democratic than the popular-vote margin. So, that +4 does not comport. It would especially the case given that incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley on the radar as a potential unseating.)

Florida is too high. It should be 2 or 3 under the Democrats' popular-vote margin. So, I'd dial it back to +7 or +8. (In 2008, Florida was about 4.5 under Obama's +7.26. With re-election in 2012, Florida was was 3 points under Obama's national +3.86. It's not likely to go over a Democrat's winning popular-vote margin.)

Pennsylvania would probably be at +13. It varies between 2 and 5 above national margins. It was 5 above for when John Kerry lost the popular vote in 2004. (He carried Pennsylvania at about +2.5 while having lost by the same amount.) When Democrats win, it's typically 2 or 3 above.


In 2012, Barack Obama won nationally, over Mitt Romney, by nearly +4. For the presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to hit +10, over presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump, means the map is really moving for Election 2016. (There has never been one presidential election's final map duplicated exactly however many years later.) She would likely see North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, and Indiana as the Top 5 states with the best potential of pickups. (Even Utah has emerged.) And, if this level of a national margin keeps playing as the general-election season keeps rolling, then we should get polling reports on these states. To keep looking at the 2008 and 2012 maps for the states which stood out in one or both is not enough information. Really, if a Democrat is winning nationally by +10, or even better (like the recent ABC News/Washington Post poll of +12), then more than the 28 (from 2008) and 26 (from 2012) states should get carried.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 12:44 PM

22. The way thing are going, Indiana could become a swing state

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Response to Brother Buzz (Reply #22)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 09:52 PM

30. Brother Buzz—Indiana is very close to Missouri

 

Missouri was a presidential bellwether state from 1904 to 2004—in which it voted 25 (of 26) winning presidential tickets. (The only time it did not side with the winner, during that period, was with Dwight Eisenhower’s re-election in 1956.)

The state of Missouri had a Democratic tilt up until 1992. Bill Clinton won a Democratic pickup of the state with his first election and won it four years later with re-election. But, with winning his second term in 1996, Missouri carried for Clinton but began its Republican tilt with its margins.

When Barack Obama did not win Missouri in 2008, and he did not carry it with his re-election in 2012, it marked the first time a Democrat was elected without carriage of the state.

In 2008, John McCain held Missouri by only +0.13 percentage points.

Interesting thing is, Indiana and Missouri—despite carrying differently in 2008 (as Obama won a Democratic pickup of Indiana)—were no greater than 1.16 percentage points in spread from each other.

ELECTION 2008
• Indiana: D+1.03 (Pickup)
• Missouri: R+0.13
(Spread: 1.16)

ELECTION 2008
• Indiana: R+10.20 (Pickup)
• Missouri: R+9.36
(Spread: 0.84)



This is important because, prior to Obama flipping now-established bellwether states Colorado and Virginia in 2008, their margins since 1996 have been no greater than 3.53 percentage points in spread.

This means, we may be seeing Missouri and Indiana becoming as likeminded in their voting—their margins—just as it is now with Colorado and Virginia.


If the 2016 Democrats, via Hillary Clinton, win this upcoming presidential election by +10 (or even better), the first state to flip will be North Carolina (which did carry in 2008 for Obama). Next would be Georgia and Arizona (their margins spread, in 2012, was only 1.23 points). Following would be Missouri and Indiana, as the Show Me State was only 0.33 more Republican than John McCain’s home state.

That electoral map can really move.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 12:57 PM

26. Anything less than a landslide for Hillary will be a letdown for me.

I expect her to have a significant influence on down ballot races across the country.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 12:59 PM

27. just remember....

In 1972, Richard Nixon won 49 states against George Mcgovern. Think about that.

He was nowhere near where Hillary's numbers were in July.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Original post)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 10:08 PM

32. K & R

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