These State polls on MSNBC are disturbing.

[Ilsa]

Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida all have Trump over Clinton by a couple of points or tied in these swing states. I can't tell from the headers who conducted the polls, though.

[underpants]

1. Yes. They are.

Quinnipiac Poll

Florida - Trump 42% Clinton 39%
Clinton was up 8 last month

Ohio- Clinton 41% Trump 41%

PA - Trump 43% Clinton 41%


Monmouth University poll
Iowa - Trump 44% Clinton 42% Gary Johnson 6%
MOE is 4.9%

Iowa voters UNDER 50 years old - Trump 51% Clinton 32% Johnson 7%


Harper Polling
colorado - Clinton 45% Trump 38% Someone Else 14%
MOE is 4.38%

[forest444]

4. Blowback.

However positive it may have sounded that Hillary was cleared in the FBI probe, they gave the public the appearance of rushing things and that it was essentially a whitewash. It ended up reinforcing the long-running GOP narrative about Hillary's being somehow "sinister."

But independent voters also see that Rethug whining about preferential treatment is incredibly hypocritical (of course!), and in the end it won't mean much because Trump has a serious case of foot-in-mouth disease and other problems and skeletons of his own.

[tallahasseedem]

24. +1

You said it much more eloquently than I tried to in another thread. The fact that our convention is second will do us well. Hillary will trot out his many shady dealings when it is time.

Unfortunately, too many tragedies and the email scandal hasn't allowed us to be out there cutting Trump down as much as we need to. That will change soon with our roster hitting the trail.

[forest444]

41. Much to look forward to.

Let's keep in touch, Tallahaseedem. I haven't visited in almost 20 years; but it's a beautiful little city.

[tallahasseedem]

42. Out of Tallahassee now...

just in time to avoid Rick Scott. I'm in South Jersey now...stuck with another jackass Governor!

[forest444]

43. Ah!

Well, better the pig than the alien.

Seriously though I hope you're having a nice time. I can't say I'm too familiar with South Jersey; but I used to enjoy Rehoboth Beach (Delaware) from time to time. It's really been too long.

[DonCoquixote]

37. Debbie Wasserman Schultz!

There is NO reason we should lose Florida. What are you doing to prevent the GOP from stealing it?

[apcalc]

2. Apparently Quinnipiac

And their polling has not been good this year.

[OnDoutside]

3. That's correct, though no harm in giving a shake to the Clinton campaign, plus if Trump actually

believes them, he'll be more inclined to think he doesn't need a big ground game.

[riversedge]

34. I think it was Quinnipiac

polled folks and asked if Hillary was a Liar. Now they have a question about Honesty

I wish I could cast an evil spell on that pollster!!--

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

[BlueNoMatterWho]

47. Many mainstream polls gauge questions such as "honest and trustworthy".

[skepticscott]

5. In the first place, the real campaign hasn't even started yet

Polls that come out before the conventions and before any debates really don't mean squat, and have nothing to do with how the election will come out. Second, there are polls all over the place, and the media at this point is going to cherry-pick the ones that make the race look as close as possible, because they need to keep people interested.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

6. This is true. They want a horse race.

[HereSince1628]

16. The two-way polling at RCP shows HRC with no significant bump after AP declared her victory

Thankfully, she's ahead of Trump in the running average, but it's narrow...4-ish percentage points.

I think it's reasonable to anticipate the traditional bump after the convention and now that Sanders is endorsing her, his campaign's drag on the numbers should end. Because of the timing of Sanders endorsement the effect will merge into her post convention numbers which should show a larger than the usual post convention bump compared to where her support was at the start of July.

It'll be an early test and a signal to the folks running down-ticket about how challenging the Fall campaigns will be. If control of Congress is going shift, the early signs should be showing soon.

[tallahasseedem]

25. That's how we got the yam in the first place...

Money, ratings, money, money, money. The time MSNBC spent last night waiting for Trump's rally to start was a journalistic embarrassment.

[Ilsa]

7. Thanks. (Phew!) NT

[7962]

8. I dont believe that for a second.

Trump keeps putting his foot in his mouth too much

[TheBlackAdder]

9. Disturbing? This is disturbing.

.

.

[Ilsa]

54. Oh gosh. Yes it is. LOL. nt

[Botany]

10. The media needs this to be a horse race and not the landslide it is gonna be.

Nate Silver has it >80% for HRC

[tallahasseedem]

26. +1

They are not in it for the truth.

[Cosmocat]

45. They did a job on her last week

She literally did nothing wrong on the e-mails and Comey set them to completely plow her under the field.

[Botany]

52. Bingo!

Although Comey did come correct in front of the House Committee.

But "they" have their story line set, "How can you trust Hillary?"

[FSogol]

11. Pro Tip: Ignore every poll until ones taken after Labor Day.

Enjoy your summer and GOTV.

PS. Morning Joe is invested in helping the Repubs, encouraging Democrats to stay home on election day, and generating ratings. They are hardly credible.

[Trust Buster]

12. Polls are utterly worthless at this point. Quiinipiac has a horrendous record. They had Romney

winning ONE WEEK before the last election Pollsters are scam artists.

[OKNancy]

13. David Plouffe

David Plouffe ?@davidplouffe 4m4 minutes ago
I remember when Suffolk U declared they would stop polling VA and FL because Romney was a lock. Keep calm and focus on the fundamentals.

----
then there is this: Clinton extends lead over Trump to 13 points: Reuters/Ipsos
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0ZS2MO

------------------------------

Meaning: polls this early are useless, however Democrats need to come together and make sure Trump isn't anywhere near the White House.

[book_worm]

14. Not really--she had a bad week last week publicity wise and is still neck and neck

in three big battle ground states. She will get back her momentum when she has her VP selection and convention. People should realize this is just the ups and downs of a campaign.

[TexasBushwhacker]

15. She will get a bump after the convention

But I will say this. Voter registration and GOTV are critical, especially in the swing states. I think it's possible that the more Trump says stupid things, the more some of his voters will turn to Johnson.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

17. What I'm surprised with is in the recent polls, the more candidates in the race the better he does.

I figured it would be just the opposite?

[geek tragedy]

18. Temporary hit from the FBI noise last week nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Please see Post 22, friend.

[asjr]

19. The thought occured to me that if Hillary would have Bernie for her

VP we could be more assured that she would be our President.

[Doodley]

20. I think the Democrats are doing a poor job at destroying Trump

Trump has a unique record that is rich in victims of his past scams, non-payments and bankruptcies, rich in his idiotic offensive comments, rich in his political position reversals, rich in false statements. Every day, the Democrats should be digging up the past and setting a negative media agenda against Trump to destroy him. That is not happening.

[TDale313]

31. I think they're holding their fire til after the conventions.

Personally I see that as a mistake, but there was talk a while back that they didn't want to risk hitting too hard too early and having him get replaced.

[Vote2016]

21. The status quo v change argument is moving the needle for Trump. PLEASE DON'T PICK KAINE OR VILSACK

FOR VP!!!

This type of VP choice would double down on "no change offered" by Democrats - vote Republican if you want change.

If we pick a VP who reinforces the idea that change is not off the table, we win. If we pick a boring, moderate white dude who reinforces the boring and moderate image, it's a coin toss.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Ilsa, let not your heart be troubled

Hillary had a bad week. It was what it was. The president took a hit in the polls after a bad first debate with Romney and recovered. So will Hill.


I usually don't pick apart polls because it represents motivating thinking. I hate the unskewing thing. But I am human; the Quinnipiac polls' party id and demographics don't make sense. They are too Republican and too white.



I am with Nate and the other model builders. I give HRC a 75% to 80% chance of winning. 4-1 favorites in sports win a lot more than they lose. The same is for politics.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

27. Do you have the party ID? I'd be interested. Thanks!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Here.

Brian xxxxxxxxxxxx <[e-mail]>
4:39 AM (1 hour ago)

to Alan
http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365






I was comparing their swing state polls data to exit poll data, wow !!!
In FL the non white percentage of the vote is up but the Republican percentage of the vote is up too. That is counterintuitive.

In OH the non white percentage of the vote is down and the Democratic percentage of the vote is significantly down.

In PA the non white percentage of the vote is down and the Democratic percentage of the vote is significantly down.

I am aware of the perils of motivated reasoning but those findings are counterintuitive.

How does one get findings like that?

Thank you


Abramowitz, Alan via emory.onmicrosoft.com
5:34 AM (55 minutes ago)

to me
With bad polling

Sent from my iPhone

[BlueNoMatterWho]

30. Thank you. Did u find any percentages of party ID sampled?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. I don't like to unskew polls because it represents motivated thinking. OTOH, I am human...

Q polls-sample link is at the bottom of the page:


http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

2012 exit poll data:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/


Remember the differences are small in the varying leads and ties. With that being said, to me, the Q polls seem to be off a little in OH and FL, and a lot off in PA

[BlueNoMatterWho]

48. Agreed.

The polling samples in the Q polls seem to be a few points off assuming the same party ID percentages come out to vote as they did in 2012. If they do not and Rethugs get out to vote in higher numbers for Trump then you may see results like this. Thanks for the links. Fascinating.

[BlueMTexpat]

32. Methinks there is a LOT of

"concern" on DU today. Hmmm ...

While most of us do not take anything for granted and will be working very hard to elect Hillary, IMO, polls done by questionable pollsters and promoted by M$M outlets who want nothing more than to create a "horse-race" situation should not continue to be posted on DU in an attempt to promote anxiety.

National polls are almost always meaningless at this point and can and will fluctuate wildly. It's the day-to-day GOTV and campaigning that will make the difference. In both those aspects, Hillary is WAY ahead of Trump and will continue to be.

[Kingofalldems]

50. Check out this poll:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028008066

[CrowCityDem]

33. Q polls have been heavily R all year. The internals on that FL one are a joke.

The indicate Trump winning Hispanics (HA!), and the electorate being >70% white, which isn't going to happen.

Polling is screwed up. NBC yesterday had the national race at 3 points. Reuters later in the day at 13. Confused much?

[Motley13]

36. dim don will get another boost after Cleveland

that should scare the crap out of everyone.

I think those polls are before the Bernie unity, so Hill's #s should go up.

I will not relax until Nov 9 & Hill has finally shut that big mouth imbecile up so "bigly" that no network will give him a reality show.

Build the great wall (around trump tower)

[awake]

38. on the up side this means the GOP will not dump Trump next week

If Trump had tanked too soon then the GOP might have pulled the plug now no change of that. I do not think Trump wants the job and I hope he starts to tank again in about 2 weeks

[uponit7771]

46. +1

[hollowdweller]

39. I think it will be hard for Clinton to win rustbelt states.

Her comments about guns.
Her comments about coal mining.
Her past support for free trade.

As president I think she can help these distressed areas and win their votes the second time around. However she will have to really play up Trumps outsourcing of his products and stuff to win this time.

[Gothmog]

40. Q polls undersample minorities

http://bluenationreview.com/shoddy-q-poll-strikes-again-and-media-lap-it-up/

[NYC Liberal]

44. Polls will vary.

In 2012 there were plenty of polls released that showed Romney leading Obama, or a tie.

The silver lining of these polls is that they hopefully keep us motivated and don't let Dems get complacent. If every poll shows Hillary destroying Trump, our side may not come out to vote.

Take nothing for granted. Act like we're 10 points down.

[KingCharlemagne]

49. There was a poll that came out a couple months ago that showed that Trump

had a 70%+ unfavorable rating from women! It's hard to see any path to an electoral victory for him, given that his presumptive opponent is a woman and women constitute a majority of the electorate now.

One other silver lining is they may seduce Republicans into thinking Trump should not be dumped. Ride that Goldwater horse all the way to Nov. 20.

[liberal N proud]

51. All the media are only going to focus on polls that are favorable to the Republican candidate

Damn liberal media!

[ericson00]

53. Don't trust Quinnipiac polls;

they were wrong this year badly, and they deliberate skew their sample to make it a horserace; they're a 3rd rate university that wants the press to attract rich kids' parents' money in tuition.