Brand Spanking New A- Rated Reuters poll/Clinton 45- Trump 33

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/smallest/dates/20160501-20160715/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

[mucifer]

1. Unfortunately, the majority doesn't rule

The polls in the swing states are more important.

Some people's votes are more valuable than others.

Then there is the kicking people off the voter registry.

I wish we lived in a country that wasn't so corrupt and each vote counted.



All that said. I'm glad she is ahead in the poll.

[MoonRiver]

8. She's ahead in most polls.

MSM just reports the outliers that have her tied. Can't research it now, but just look through the forum.

[onehandle]

9. Swing state polls have been steadily in her favor, while national polls have been less predictable.

National polls are mostly bullshit until after Labor Day.

Guess which polls are more indicative of a November win?

Hillary is #45.

[George II]

19. She's also ahead by more than TWENTY percent in Electoral Votes.

[Dem2]

29. Hello Captain glum face

Cheer up, it's the weekend!

[CrowCityDem]

2. Were people really believing Rasmussen and Quinnipiac? She's always been ahead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Every poll is a data point.

[still_one]

4. and some data points have more significance than others. The problem is determining which ones they

are

[George II]

20. These data points are very significant:

Electoral votes:

Hillary Clinton 310.8, Donald Trump 226.4, Gary Johnson 0.8

Popular vote:

Hillary Clinton 46.9%, Donald Trump 43.0%, Gary Johnson 8.7%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

This shows that a seemingly "close" national popular vote (only 3.9%) can mislead people into thinking that the election is close.

+3.9% in the popular vote, +84 (16%) in Electoral Votes.

The way it works is that (guessing and exaggerating here) in Wyoming, the Dakotas, Montana, Alabama, Mississippi, etc. Clinton could be behind 75-25, but in states that are solidly hers she may be ahead by 60-40 (still significant). That translates into a closer popular vote even though the election may not be close at all.

Look at the Reagan/Carter election. Reagan got only 10.6% more popular votes than Carter but got 91% of the electoral votes!

[still_one]

21. Thanks George, good analysis

[Still In Wisconsin]

12. I know Rasmussen is crap but I thought Q was OK...

Not the case?

[woolldog]

16. According to Nate Silver, Quinnipiac polls are very good.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/

[CrowCityDem]

23. These particular polls had obvious sampling problems, when you looked at the crosstabs. Pure junk.

[woolldog]

25. Nate Silver on this issue:

If that’s the to-do list when evaluating new polls, there are also a few to-don’ts. Here’s what not to do when you see a potential “outlier.” <...SNIP...>

2. Don’t get lost in the crosstabs. Trust us — you don’t want to take the route of scrutinizing the poll’s crosstabs for demographic anomalies, hoping to “prove” that it can’t possibly be right. Before long, you’ll wind up in the Valley Of Unskewed Polls. Sample sizes are one issue. If a 600-person poll breaks out the results for men, women, Hispanics, blacks, Democrats, Republicans, older voters, younger voters and so forth, those subsamples will have extremely high margins of error, pretty much guaranteeing there will be some strange-looking results. Also, these comparisons are often circular. It might be asserted that a poll must be wrong because its demographics don’t match other polls. But no one poll is a gold standard — exit polls certainly aren’t. There are also legitimate disagreements over methodology — some polls weight by partisan identification and some don’t, for example. Although some of these debates may be important in the abstract, our experience has been that they involve a lot of motivated reasoning when raised in the middle of the horse race.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/

[Lord Magus]

26. But the basic composition of the electorate doesn't have a margin of error.

That's something that's either right or it's wrong. And if a poll is, for example, 8-9% whiter than the actual population, that is something that will have a huge impact on its results. Getting the basic demographics right is essential to an accurate poll.

[CrowCityDem]

28. "Not getting lost" doesn't mean accepting garbage when it's put under your nose.

[woolldog]

30. Silver devoted an entire article to why he weighted the Q polls heavily.

He's more knowledgeable than you.

[CrowCityDem]

31. Q being reputable doesn't make obvious garbage less garbage.

[mcar]

5. This will be front page news in the MSM

Right?

[progressoid]

6. "Neither/other/refused" 20.5%

That's the group we need to deal with.

[Takket]

7. the polls are meaningless until

a few weeks after the conventions end, when all the convention and VP "bumps" have settled out. they will be all over the place until that happens

[groundloop]

10. The general trend lines in that poll are telling.... Clinton steady, tRump declining

[ismnotwasm]

11. K&R

[Hulk]

13. That sort of split seems closer to what I would expect.

Amazing how even 30%+ would vote for Satan himself before they would cross party lines. Works both ways, I'm pretty sure.

[KMOD]

14. K & R

[oasis]

15. "Really big" Ed Sullivan.

[Mr. Sparkle]

17. I'm getting poll fatigue

[calimary]

18. Wait til after the Democratic convention

Because there's a Democrat in the White House, the Dems go second - getting the last word. That's usually the rule anyway. She'll probably take a hit next week, what with the wall-to-wall exposure of all things Trump and Pence. But she'll bounce back with the big guns and spectacle of the Democratic Convention that follows. And poor news media! They'll be forced to wall-to-wall it for the Dems as well, won't they! It'll be nonstop good publicity for Hillary-and-Company.

[LAS14]

22. Why isn't this in RCP? The news came out...

... yesterday, or last night, I think. I asked this yesterday, I'm sure. It's still not there.

[zenabby]

24. Demographics

It seems to me she is winning blacks, latinos, asians, women, college educated white men, young people - all by a very high margin. The only demographic she is not winning is white non college educated men who don't trust her. How is she tied? She should be way higher.

[Lord Magus]

27. Now watch this get nowhere near the media attention.

Polls showing a blowout don't fit their "too close to call, we've got a real horse race here" narrative.