2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRIP America-CNN poll:56% viewed Trump speech positively
Also, 73% believe Trump has the right policies.
56% more likely to vote Trump.
Speech is playing very well. I thought based on the reactions of those like Nicole Wallace and Ana Navarro that this speech was an epic bomb.
Looks like epic success?
Fortunately, this poll was only of speech watchers but still?
WTF?!
MichiganVote
(21,086 posts)puffy socks
(1,473 posts)Trump would not have the Republican nomination, the news media would have torn he and his ridiculous schtick apart months ago.
MichiganVote
(21,086 posts)the media-that great feed me idiocratic stuff to sustain me and make me rich thing-fully supported him. Fox and Ailes in particular. News, on the other hand, reports facts-something it rarely does.
The people who have supported Trump are not happy with their lot. Even though it has been made abundantly clear that we no longer live in the 60's/70's with the types of employment or income needed to support their intended lifestyle. They have no idea who Trump is and don't care. They want promises of nirvana and so they get them. That doesn't make them bad people-it makes them weak people.
sofa king
(10,857 posts)The majority of Americans were too smart to listen to Trump's bullshit.
pnwmom
(108,977 posts)I lasted about 3 minutes and then muted it and waited . . . .and waited . . . and waited . . . till the confetti finally started to fall.
writes3000
(4,734 posts)nolawarlock
(1,729 posts)pnwmom
(108,977 posts)SticksnStones
(2,108 posts)...only 56% of a mostly republican sample liked Trump's speech.
I'd actually call that very comforting numbers.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)You can always tell what month and year it is.
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)THIS ^^^^^^^^^
scscholar
(2,902 posts)which I can't remember any true progressive ever talking about. That is an important issue even if most reasonable people try to ignore it.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)Trump is a hypocrite
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)What the hell kind of poll is that?
surprise!
MH1
(17,600 posts)This may be one of those polls that seems bad but is actually good.
Arkana
(24,347 posts)I am shocked, SHOCKED I tell you.
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)It's a phone poll, scientific.
Would like to see the McCain, Romney, Dole '96 numbers for comparison.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)I would bet that the audience is more Republican and Lean-Rs than any of those candidates. Trump is such a polarizing candidate that he is going to attract a smaller Dem and Indy audience than any of those candidates.
Many people just won't want to watch. I didn't.
Arkana
(24,347 posts)Most rank-and-file Dems probably didn't either, because they had better things to do than watch an orange clown man poop his Depends on TV. Is there even a party breakdown in that poll?
musicblind
(4,484 posts)But then again, I'm a political junkie.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)Trump has always been able to get eyeballs on him, the hope is that people's better angels affect their opinion.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)How many people who weren't already Trump supporters did that? This was a scientific poll, but it was a poll of Trump voters.
Tess49
(1,579 posts)on his speech?
RAFisher
(466 posts)Tess49
(1,579 posts)were probably zoned out before it was over.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)supposedly scientific poll done? The speech was just a couple of hours before you posted this ridiculous poll. Where did you hear it was done by phone? How many were called? How many answered? How many were republicans? Scientific my ass.
C_U_L8R
(45,002 posts)We'll see how this polls out over time. Not sure he's gonna get much of a bump.
jezebel
(1,772 posts)60% he had right policies.
writes3000
(4,734 posts)NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)If it weren't for 2012 when the post 1st debate polls had an strong win for Romney and then Obama fell behind Romney until Superstorm Sandy and his tremendous response to that turned the election around.
Would like to see a breakdown of partisan affiliation.
Still though, the speech was atrocious. It shows how insane almost all republicans are that the majority of them viewed it positively.
It just would have been nicer if most republicans had the reaction of Nicole Wallace and Meghan McCain and not this.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)He was never going to lose, if you look at the poll averages and betting markets. He was almost always ahead, sometimes by a little, sometimes by a lot.
People place too much faith in individual polls. The averages are the only truth.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)The impact of the 1st debate was erased when Biden wiped the floor with Ryan in the VP debate a week later, and even moreso when Obama invited Romney to "please proceed" in the 2nd debate.
Obama's 1st-debate "loss" was a media-invented narrative anyway since they didn't bother to report that Romney's lines were all lies.
Thrill
(19,178 posts)lol
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)0How is that anything but a win????
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Among people that live in Donald Trump's house!
MFM008
(19,808 posts)DemocraticWing
(1,290 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)MattP
(3,304 posts)StevieM
(10,500 posts)that his numbers went up from 60 percent to 73 percent thinking he would take the country in the right direction.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)It's to be expected. That is what speeches do. They excite the base.
Trump's base is 40-44% of the population. He won't get much higher than that in any election scenario, no matter how excited they are.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)Trump is a despicable liar. And sometimes the bad guys win.
glennward
(989 posts)I will leave this here.
Remember, the polls had Romney ahead in 2012.
brettdale
(12,381 posts)The reason I dont believe in online polls is because once had
George W Bush being more friendly to the environment than Al
Gore.
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Maybe HRC won't pick a right-winger like Kaine now to try to build momentum.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)MFM008
(19,808 posts)that's a big minus in most blue states anyway.
He may work out well in his state and hes not a bad guy
but there is a better choice. Also if this is Bills choice
It shouldn't be HERS. Just my opinion.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)How many times has this been corrected on this website? And people still hold on to this lie. They believe what they want to believe.
Kaine has said many times that he is personally anti-abortion but believes passionately that the issue should NOT be legislated. He's voted pro-choice and has a 100% rating from Planned Parenthood.
Spreading lies about Democratic candidates for VP only helps Trump.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)So I honestly don't give a fuck how he feels personally about it. As long as he's not trying to control me.
pnwmom
(108,977 posts)by ontheissues.org
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Tim_Kaine.htm
still_one
(92,190 posts)poll who watch the republican convention, it is BS, because it will be weighted highly in favor of republicans.
In fact, if you at recent conventional polls they counter this:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Wash. state Desk Jet
(3,426 posts)TRUMP: "Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed by this administration's rollback of criminal enforcement. Homicides last year increased by 17 percent in America's 50 largest cities. That's the largest increase in 25 years."
THE FACTS: A rollback? President Barack Obama has actually achieved some big increases in spending for state and local law enforcement, including billions in grants provided through the 2009 stimulus. While FBI crime statistics for 2015 are not yet available, Trump's claim about rising homicides appears to come from a Washington Post analysis published in January. While Trump accurately quotes part of the analysis, he omits that the statistical jump was so large because homicides are still very low by historical standards. In the 50 cities cited by the Post, for example, half as many people were killed last year as in 1991
TRUMP: "The number of new illegal immigrant families who have crossed the border so far this year already exceeds the entire total from 2015. They are being released by the tens of thousands into our communities with no regard for the impact on public safety or resources."
THE FACTS: The pace of releasing immigrants is driven not by the Obama administration, but by a court ruling. A federal judge ruled last year that the government couldn't hold parents and children in jail for more than 20 days. An appeals court partially rolled that back earlier this month, saying that parents could be detained but children must be released.
By the standard used by the government to estimate illegal border crossings - the number of arrests Trump is right that the number in this budget year has already exceeded last year's total. But it's down from 2014
TRUMP: "When a secretary of state illegally stores her emails on a private server, deletes 33,000 of them so the authorities can't see her crime, puts our country at risk, lies about it in every different form and faces no consequence - I know that corruption has reached a level like never before."
THE FACTS: Clinton's use of a private server to store her emails was not illegal under federal law. Her actions were not established as a crime. The FBI investigated the matter and its role was to advise the Justice Department whether to bring charges against her based on what it found. FBI Director James Comey declined to refer the case for criminal prosecution to the Justice Department, instead accusing Clinton of extreme carelessness.
As for Trump's claim that Clinton faces no consequence, that may be true in a legal sense. But the matter has been a distraction to her campaign and fed into public perceptions that she can't be trusted. The election will test whether she has paid a price politically
TRUMP: "The number of police officers killed in the line of duty has risen by almost 50 percent compared to this point last year."
THE FACTS: Not according to the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund, which tracks police fatalities daily. The group found that the number of police officers who died as of July 20 is up just slightly this year, at 67, compared with 62 through the same period last year. That includes deaths in the line of duty from all causes, including traffic fatalities.
It is true that there has been a spike in police deaths from intentional shootings, 32 this year compared with 18 last year, largely attributable to the recent mass shootings in Dallas and Baton Rouge. But that was not his claim.
And overall, police are statistically safer on America's streets now than at any time in recent decades.
For example, the 109 law enforcement fatalities in 2013 were the lowest since 1956. ___
TRUMP: "My opponent has called for a radical 550 percent increase in Syrian (refugees). ... She proposes this despite the fact that there's no way to screen these refugees in order to find out who they are or where they come from. I only want to admit individuals into our country who will support our values and love our people."
THE FACTS: Trump persists in making the bogus claim that the U.S. doesn't screen refugees. The administration both screens them and knows where they are from. The Department of Homeland Security leads the process, which involves rigorous background checks. Processing of a refugee can take 18 months to two years, and usually longer for those coming from Syria. Refugees are also subject to in-person interviews and fingerprint and other biometric screening.
For all that caution, U.S. officials acknowledge that the Islamic State group could try to place operatives among refugees. Last year, FBI Director James Comey said data about people coming from Syria may be limited, adding, "If we don't know much about somebody, there won't be anything in our database." ___
TRUMP: "Two million more Latinos are in poverty today than when President Obama took his oath of office less than eight years ago. Another 14 million people have left the workforce entirely. ... President Obama has almost doubled our national debt to more than $19 trillion, and growing."
THE FACTS: Trump is playing with numbers to make the economy look worse than it actually is. The sluggish recovery over the past seven years has been frustrating. But with unemployment at 4.9 percent, the situation isn't as bleak as he suggests.
Trump's figure of 14 million who've stopped working since Obama took office comes from the Labor Department's measure of people not in the workforce. It's misleading for three reasons: The U.S. population has increased in that time; the country has aged and people have retired; and younger people are staying in school longer for college and advanced degrees, so they're not in the labor force, either.
A better figure is labor force participation the share of people with jobs or who are searching for work. That figure has declined from 65.7 percent when Obama took office to 62.7 percent now. Part of that decrease reflects retirements, but the decline is also a long-term trend.
On national debt, economists say a more meaningful measure than dollars is the share of the overall economy taken up by the debt. By that measure, the debt rose 36 percent under Obama (rather than doubling). That's roughly the same as what occurred under Republican President George W. Bush.
The Hispanic population has risen since Obama while the poverty rate has fallen. The Pew Research Center found that 23.5 percent of the country's 55.3 million Latinos live in poverty, compared with 24.7 percent in 2010.
___
TRUMP: "When a secretary of state illegally stores her emails on a private server, deletes 33,000 of them so the authorities can't see her crime, puts our country at risk, lies about it in every different form and faces no consequence I know that corruption has reached a level like never ever before in our country."
THE FACTS: Clinton's use of a private server to store her emails was not illegal under federal law. Her actions were not established as a crime. The FBI investigated the matter and its role was to advise the Justice Department whether to bring charges against her based on what it found. FBI Director James Comey declined to refer the case for criminal prosecution to the Justice Department, instead accusing Clinton of extreme carelessness.
As for Trump's claim that Clinton faces no consequence, that may be true in a legal sense. But the matter has been a distraction to her campaign and fed into public perceptions that she can't be trusted. The election will test whether she has paid a price politically." ___
TRUMP: "When that same secretary of state rakes in millions and millions of dollars trading access and favors to special interests and foreign powers, I know the time for action has come." THE FACTS: That's a somewhat overheated take on a legitimately troublesome issue for Clinton.
Although financial disclosures show she earned only her government salary as secretary of state, she made more than $21 million afterward, over three years, for speeches and appearances for private companies. None of those speeches was paid for by foreign governments, but some groups she addressed could be counted as special interests.
As well, the Clintons' family charity, the Clinton Foundation, received millions of dollars in donations while she was secretary of state, some from foreigners. And Bill Clinton earned millions making appearances and speeches for foreign corporations and organizations while his wife was at the State Department. ___
TRUMP: "After four years of Hillary Clinton, what do we have? ISIS has spread across the region, and the entire world. Libya is in ruins, and our ambassador and his staff were left helpless to die at the hands of savage killers. Egypt was turned over to the radical Muslim Brotherhood, forcing the military to retake control. Iraq is in chaos. Iran is on the path to nuclear weapons. Syria is engulfed in a civil war and a refugee crisis now threatens the West. ... This is the legacy of Hillary Clinton: death, destruction, terrorism and weakness."
THE FACTS: It's an exaggeration to suggest Clinton, or any secretary of state, is to blame for the widespread instability and violence across the Middle East.
Clinton worked to impose sanctions that helped coax Tehran to a nuclear deal with the U.S. and other world powers last year, a deal in which Iran rolled back its nuclear program to get relief from sanctions that were choking its economy.
She did not start the war in Libya, but supported a NATO intervention well after violence broke out between rebels and the forces of dictator Moammar Gadhafi. The country slid into chaos after Gadhafi was ousted and killed in 2011, leaving it split between competing governments.
Clinton had no role in military decisions made during the 2012 attack on the U.S. diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya, that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans. Republicans' claim that high-level officials in Washington issued a "stand-down" order delaying a military rescue in Benghazi has been widely debunked.
On Iraq, Clinton as a senator voted in 2002 to grant President George W. Bush authority to invade Iraq, but has since said it was a "mistake." Many in the Middle East do not regret Saddam's ouster and regional allies allowed U.S. bases in their country to support the war. But many also now fear the Islamic State group, which rose in the chaos of Syria's civil war and Iraq's security vacuum. ___ Associated Press writers Josh Boak, Stephen Braun, Deb Riechmann, Jim Drinkard and Alicia A. Caldwell in Washington and Elliot Spagat in San Diego contributed to this report
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)applegrove
(118,646 posts)grossproffit
(5,591 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Hopefully, non-white people will be able to counteract that to give Hillary the win.
vadermike
(1,415 posts)But.. he may get a bounce out of it.. god help us all
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Rs always get one.
If we keep it to a swing of 5 points it will be a win.
vadermike
(1,415 posts)Are Dems enthused enough to vote.. cause if not hello President trump
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)underthematrix
(5,811 posts)NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)It was on air as reported by Wolf Blitzer.
As far as Kaine goes, he's a nightmare. For TPP and against banking regulations. Just recently a 'convert' to the LGBTQ cause.
If he is picked it means the Secretary is planning 3rd way triangulation again. I honestly thought she was more liberal than her husband at heart.
People want change. They'll go for the candidate that can offer it. HRC can follow the Bernie model of progressive compassionate change or we will get Hitlerian Trump Brownshirt change.
Either way, change is coming to America. I never considered HRC to be tone deaf. Surely she must see this.
Vilsack isn't the best but I can accept him as a choice that doesn't move the needle either way. Kaine is just so much a disaster on so many levels, on the other hand, that this loyal Democrat since 1992 can't even find him palatable.
The_Casual_Observer
(27,742 posts)Trump offers no answers, no help, nothing.
Trump simply wants to rule the world with an iron fist. This makes absolutely no sense.
Expecting Rain
(811 posts)from beginning to end. The speech will be fact-checked to death and be found inaccurate time and again.
But, so what? He scored some major points with a huge base of Americans who don't give a flip about the truthiness of his speech. Those who hear the dog-whistles and like the clear racism, demagoguery, and violent authoritarianism.
Shades of Nixon, wholets not forgetwon big.
This is a dangerous guy who will appeal to the lizard-brains in too many easily manipulated Americans. This was not a disaster of a speech for Trump, but a triumph of sorts.
We better not underestimate this foe.
I do wish we'd have a VP who could hand Trump his head. The best choice to me seems obvious. Boring is not what our ticket needs.
We better prepare for a serious battle folks. We might laugh at the ridiculousness of Trump's bombast, but I'm sure there were many people watching who liked what they heard.
merrily
(45,251 posts)I cannot believe Trump is the nominee of one of the two largest political parties in the US.
If this is an elaborate joke, I wish our Republican fellow Americans would let us in on it.
Soon.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)Only 56%.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)73% believe "shit.. it's what's for dinner"
56% of people who love eating shit, say they are even more likely to have shit at their NEXT meal!
Mmmmmmm!
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Those numbers are meaningless.
Bleacher Creature
(11,256 posts)I certainly didn't have the stomach to watch the whole thing and then go around to different websites providing feedback.
That number is a clear echo chamber.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)was it an online poll, phone poll, both?
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)WTF.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)But I mean WHO the fuck are you trying to kid not pointing out it was asked of the audience that watched the speech - the VAST majority of whom were republicans? Who are you trying to kid?
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)writes3000
(4,734 posts)It was exclusively for CNN. It was reported on air. They didn't give the number of people asked or party affiliation.
They found a group of people who intended to watch the convention. They asked them about whether they liked Trump's policies and whether they intended to vote for him. They asked them these two questions before the convention and then again after the speech last night.
CNN admitted, in all likelihood, that the majority of convention watchers would tend to be Republicans and Republican leaning independents.
Within that group there was a 13% swing of people who said they liked his policies more and were more inclined to vote for him.
In other words, he swayed some of his base. There were also a quarter of those polled who didn't like his policies before and didn't like his policies after.
yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)So 56% is not that strong a number. Really it isn't.
beaglelover
(3,479 posts)We all need to personally campaign for Hillary 24 hours a day every day from now until election day and get every dem we know to go vote in November. The stakes are way too high.