2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSam Wang is talking smack to Nate Silver
Everyone knows who Nate Silver is. The other big player in electoral modeling is Sam Wang, who runs the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) and has as impressive of a track record as Nate. You can check his website here:
http://election.princeton.edu
Anyway, Nate has been going pretty hard lately on the "Trump can win" narrative, including the following tweet:
Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/756681961809272832
Sam, who as a peer, likes to tweak Nate about numbers (Something very few people seem to be comfortable doing) responded with:
Scary!! Though um, HRC has always led, Obama is at net approval, & generic House is at D+7%.
https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/757015143373017089
Good times.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Wang also has a job beside poll aggregating.
I like the Upshot.
It lists all the models:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?action=click&contentCollection=upshot®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=7&pgtype=sectionfront
Johnny2X2X
(19,254 posts)The 10 states at the bottom tell the whole story. Hillary wins FL and Trump can win the other 9 and Hillary wins. Hillary wins PA and one of the other states and she wins. Trump has to win 9 of 10 of the most competitive states to win and Hillary is the favorite in 8 of those 10 right now.
Trump cannot win without winning FL.
tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)he losing his shit.
jimw81
(111 posts)Got to him mentally