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2016 Postmortem

Funtatlaguy

(10,890 posts) Wed Jul 27, 2016, 11:19 AM Jul 2016

The Donald is trumpeting this poll out of USC

Anybody know the history of their polling?
This has Trump with a "current" 7 point lead.

http://96.127.53.23/election/

3 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

The Donald is trumpeting this poll out of USC (Original Post) Funtatlaguy Jul 2016 OP

not a poll Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #1

I had never heard of them before. Funtatlaguy Jul 2016 #2

He can call it a poll all he wants Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #3

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

1. not a poll

Reply to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 11:35 AM

Jul 2016

A panel survey. If you noticed it started out with more Trumpers.

It's the same people every time, so if they got a sample with more Trumpers initially and keep recontacting the same people of course Trump still leads.

It's predictive power, because of that, is zero.

Funtatlaguy

(10,890 posts)

2. I had never heard of them before.

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Reply #1)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 11:37 AM

Jul 2016

Trump keeps calling it the new Los Angeles Times poll.

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

3. He can call it a poll all he wants

Reply to Funtatlaguy (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 11:42 AM

Jul 2016

It may even call itself a poll. It was a poll the first time it was taken. After that it's a recontact survey.

If you contact the same group of individuals over and over again, all you measure is the bias of that *contacted* group. Contacting random groups from a larger sample space though lets you estimate the inclination of the entire population.

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