Trump takes the lead in the Reuters/Ipsos poll

[woolldog]

Trump 35.7
Clinton 34.5

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_13

According to Nate Silver, were the election held today,

Trump's chances of winning = 55.4%
Clinton's chances of winning = 44.6%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

In Silver's polls only forecast, Clinton is behind in NV, IA, FL, OH, NC and NH. Those states are all light pink.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[Zynx]

1. This will all change shortly. Being behind after your opponent's convention is normal.

[stevenleser]

36. Yep. Pretty much every time. nt

[brush]

2. Not buying those results.

Who the hell are they polling, people from the repug convention.

[2naSalit]

49. I used to work for an outfit

who conducted these IPSOS polls, they can only call and interview people at landline phones and not cell phones so... And they have random, allegedly dialers - machine that do the dialing. Cell phones may be allowed now but you still have to agree to be interviewed and answer questions designed to get a certain answer profile.

Polls are not always what we think they are.

[woolldog]

52. it's an online poll

so your post is completely off base.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

55. An online poll??!! You might as well use a crystal ball. Why is Nate Silver saying that though.

[BlueInPhilly]

57. Self selection

Only people who want to be polled participated. Totally self selected sample.

[2naSalit]

60. Not entirely...

It's still a poll based on those who wish to participate and an online poll is little more than structured bullshit. So what was you point in the first place then? I don't consider your post to have any valididty now.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. Check back in after Labor Day.

[grossproffit]

24. THIS! Larry Sabato said the exact same thing last night.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

32. Like him, I'm a political scientist. We tend to know these things. :)

[grossproffit]

66. Wow. How impressive. So glad to have you here.

[JaneyVee]

4. Weird. Shows Hillary +8.5% for me:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_13/

[woolldog]

7. That link shows 35-34 Trump.

Clear your filters.

[gabeana]

40. Just curious

it seems like all you do is post negative news, why is that?

[woolldog]

45. ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2297087

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2312366

[gabeana]

48. already seen these responses not impressed

[woolldog]

50. huh?

I don't care whether you're impressed or not. You asked a question, you got an answer.

No more responses for you!

[gabeana]

58. Sensitive aren't you

still not impressed with your reasoning

[bettyellen]

44. No - it has Hillary WINNING. HA!

[woolldog]

46. uh huh

[sufrommich]

5. Poll: Romney gets convention bounce, takes national lead

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/246825-poll-romney-gets-convention-bounce-takes-national-lead

[kcjohn1]

9. In that article

Obama was still up by 1.1 in the average of polls. He eventually won by 4 points.

Right now Trump is up by 1.1 in the same realclearpolitics average of polls.

[woolldog]

13. Good catch. nt

[woolldog]

10. Romney was a normal candidate

and a decent man. Trump is no Romney. He shouldn't be anywhere near Clinton. What does that say about this country?

[TheCowsCameHome]

6. Check back in after Nov. 8th.

[Grassy Knoll]

8. .

[unitedwethrive]

11. Scary

What's wrong with people?!

[woolldog]

12. And yet there's so much complacency here

on DU and among Democrats generally, laughing and joking thinking that there's no way Trump can win. And yet he's winning. And so many fools refuse to believe it.

[oswaldactedalone]

15. This time next week

we'll know where the race really stands. It's a sad commentary on America that a piece of fetid fecal material such as Traitor Trump could be close at any point in the race.

One word sums up my feelings about it at this point: Concerned.

[etherealtruth]

17. I am sick of the apathy and complacency

[moonscape]

19. Trump should be down 30pts - make that 50 pts -

It's not fathomable that anyone would actually vote for this guy.

I'm terrified. And I'm scared because every other time I thought it would be impossible (Reagan, then Bush Jr) - I turned out to be wrong.

Madness. Utter madness.

[Charles Bukowski]

14. Sec. Clinton

was up 2 on RCP when the RNC began, now Trump is up 1.

Thats not much of a bounce, and it will surely be wiped out by Monday.

[woolldog]

16. What exactly do you base that statement

that "it will surely be wiped out by Monday" on?

What do the last few days in the tracking polls say? (Ipsos, USC?) Has there been a lot of movement? Just curious. When a tracking poll averages multiple days, sometimes if you see big movement in the most recent samples you can feel confident predicting what it will look like in a few days. Are you seeing that and that's what's leading you to make such a confident statement?

[Loki Liesmith]

21. Usc is not a poll

[Charles Bukowski]

22. I'm basing on the fact that every candidate gets a convention bounce

and it's usually bigger for Dems.

[woolldog]

28. ok. I was hoping that you had more than speculation and conjecture.

I suspect she'll get a bump too. But you don't know for a fact what's going to happen.

[revbones]

64. Kerry didn't. nt

[renie408]

18. WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK?

How is this happening? NO, don't tell me its the convention bump or whatthefuckever. HOW DOES TRUMP HAVE ANYBODY THAT SAYS THEY WOULD VOTE FOR HIM?

What the fuck?

[uponit7771]

20. Hmmmm, last link is 53 Hillary 47 tRump... chance of winning... don't know what's up with those #'s

[woolldog]

23. There's a polls only forecast and a now-cast.

Try clicking the radio buttons on the upper left hand corner.

[uponit7771]

29. ok... don't see the need for the now forecast but anyway.. down ballot ... need to GOTV

[Beantighe]

25. I don't believe that

but I will pretend it's true. It will make me work that much harder to make sure Trump is handed his ass.

[Loki Liesmith]

26. You have a modus operandi

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125160216

[obamanut2012]

30. yup

[uponit7771]

31. +1, looks like a repeat of 2012... people even saying nationals mean little right now... good find

[woolldog]

34. You mean a modus operandi

of posting factually accurate OPs backed by links to preeminent polling sites like 538? Yes.

[Loki Liesmith]

35. I could easily test

Whether you have a tendency to post only D lead or R lead polls using a z score for frequency counts.

It wouldn't be hard.

[woolldog]

41. I've addressed this issue already.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2297087

[gabeana]

47. Sorry you remind me of chicken little

like somehow you are the savior because if it wasn't for you we would just sit on our hands and let Trump win

get over yourself
it is mid July and the republicans just had their convention and it is basically tied and your scare tactics with regard to silver, well silver wrote article explaining polls at this time are really a lot of noise

[tonyt53]

27. Lay off the damned polls until after Labor Day. Right now they mean jack shit.

[RonniePudding]

33. +1. And stop wetting your pants people, as well. It's a long slog.

Last edited Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:30 AM - Edit history (1)

[RonniePudding]

38. I was talking about the OP

CTFO

[riversedge]

39. your link gives me different numbers....both pools only and polls plus for 5thirty8....

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo


Who will win the presidency?

Chance of winning
FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

52.6%

Donald Trump

47.3%
FiveThirtyEight
ALAKAZARCACO FLGAHIIDILINIAKSKYLAME MIMNMSMOMTNENV NMNYNCNDOHOKORPA SCSDTNTXUT VAWAWVWIWYVTNHMARICTNJDEMDDC

Key

50%

60

70

80

90

Clinton

Trump

Tipping points
Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton

274.9

Donald Trump

262.5

Gary Johnson

0.5
Popular vote

Hillary Clinton

46.1%

Donald Trump

44.9%

Gary Johnson

7.7%
How the odds have changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.
June 8JulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.0255075100%Election DayNov. 8▼<0.1%Johnson<0.1%Johnson52.6%Clinton52.6%Clinton47.3%Trump47.3%Trump
Who’s ahead in each state and by how much

[woolldog]

42. you're doing it wrong...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2312444

[SirBrockington]

43. James Comey

Did maximum damage with his indictment "non-indictment"

I imagine the dramatic changes occurred right at that time.

Two weeks ago Hillary was up 13 points and people were talking
a 1984 type possible rout.

[Cosmocat]

51. YEP

he did the dirt big time ...

DNC e-mail hack release Friday, now voice mails ...

[woolldog]

56. I think you're right.

How much damage he caused has taken me by surprise.

[Lebam in LA]

53. are people just screwing with the pollsters now?

I just cannot believe the majority of American support this moron.

[Island Blue]

54. If the election were held today,

a lot of people would be very surprised.

[gabeana]

61. yeah but it is not being held today

so whats the point

[Island Blue]

62. I guess I should have used some type of

Lol smilie.

[vadermike]

59. I think we might be

Toast .. Now wiki leaks vmail ...god help us all If the trump thing with Russia doesn't do it and Hillary doesn't get a bounce I don't know what to think anymore RIP USA I'm not dreaming this unfortunately

[gabeana]

67. It is fucking July

stop being a defeatist

[democrattotheend]

63. How is this possible?

With all of the crazy things Trump has said and done, how is Hillary not 20 points ahead?

[jamese777]

65. About half of America

LIKES the crazy things that Trump says.