10 POINT BOUNCE FOR HILLARY!!!! NOW UP 15 POINTS!!!!!!!!

[MohRokTah]

This is the first poll taken entirely after the DNC. Nate Silver even made a big deal about it in a Tweet.

http://www.rabaresearch.com/

[B Calm]

1. Nice

[workinclasszero]

2. BOOM!!!!

Looks like our totally awesome convention is paying off!!

[NCTraveler]

3. If that poll has accuracy...

It shows the exact opposite of a lack of enthusiasm with respect to wanting to get to the polls. The first metric at the poll result link is huge.

How likely are you to vote? Absolutely Certain: 83%
Probably: 8%

Third party on the left: 2%
Right: 7%

[rjsquirrel]

4. In one poll

by a somewhat unknown pollster.

For the same reasons we shouldn't panic when polls show Hillary behind, it's dumb to get all excited over any single poll result, especially one without a trend line from a lesser known firm.

She's gonna get a bounce and we wil know what it is in three days or so.

[Cosmocat]

10. Right we are seeing some polls now that should be viewed with credulousness

Hillary up 9 in PA? I live her, I feel pretty good she will win, but 9 points right now? AND, in this poll, they have McGinty up 7 on Toomey for Senate that is just completely unbelievable. It would be big news if she was up at all, she simply is not up 7.

There was Missouri poll on Tuesday that had Trump up 10, one on Thursday Hill up 1. Again, I am skeptical she has a lead there.

As usual, gotta work from the people who combine all the data with a good formula.

To your point,I have been saying all along, Hill up or town, gotta wait until about two weeks after Philly before we can really get an idea of where things are.

[The_Casual_Observer]

5. I want to see that bastard humiliated.

[workinclasszero]

6. I want a Goldwater style

ass whipping!

[MohRokTah]

7. Yep, this needs to be an electoral college LANDSLIDE

I want to see the bastard lose all 50 states!

[NNadir]

21. I don't know if that's possible, but the honor of our country demands this small minded man be...

...resoundingly defeated. His mere existence on a national ticket has already damaged our country.

[connecticut yankee]

24. Trump

would probably say the Dems "rigged the election."

[Sophiegirl]

25. I wouldn't give

One single damn if he did.

I want to see him go down in historic fashion.

[MohRokTah]

27. He'll be saying that no matter what. eom

[MFM008]

36. He says it now

Who cares.

[lonestarnot]

52. Me too! Every last fucking one of them.

[sheshe2]

8. K&R

[tallahasseedem]

9. WOOT!!!

I want it to go even higher! The higher it goes, the more likely he is to melt down!

[Johnny2X2X]

11. The 10 point bounce

The bounce is more important that the 15 point lead. She got a 7 point bounce in Reuters already and that will go up. Could be a full 10 point bounce across all the polls.

[Cha]

12. It figures! Such a brilliant Convention! Props to All who made that

happen!



rivers~http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2326238

[workinclasszero]

13. We owe those convention folks big time!

Kudos to them all!

[TeddyR]

14. Anyone know anything about this pollster?

Reuters has Hillary tied with Trump when you include third party candidates. I suspect she'll get a bounce but not a huge one. I'd like to see her with a 3-4 point lead by the end of next week.

[Tiggeroshii]

15. Methinks this bump is permanent

[frazzled]

16. Fivethirtyeight gives it a rating of B-

which may sound bad, but look at all the ratings in the Cs, Ds, and even Fs on their chart.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Buckeye_Democrat]

17. Thank goodness!

This is great news! I hope it carries through to November! I'll be so disgusted if Trump even makes it close.

[Farmgirl1961]

18. This is positive news, but please folks, don't get complacent...the race is still 100 days away

While this is certainly very good news, polls rise and fall. There's a lot of sinister activity going on this election and we must not get complacent or take the polls too seriously. We must work doggedly through (and beyond) election day.

[DFW]

28. Sage advice

The Republicans will pour a token few hundred million into Trump's campaign. NOT because they think he has a ghost of winning, but to distract from close Senate, House and Statehouse races that they think they CAN win that they would lose if they concentrate heavily on the race for the White House.

We can't just get smug for one--or ANY--race. This year, they're ALL important.
It will be more so in two years. Make no mistake bout this. This is no 3 month campaign.

This time, it's a 27 month campaign. We cannot afford to forget what happened in 2010, and Citizens United will not be repealed in two weeks after inauguration day. Citizens United is what is keeping the Republican Party on life support, and no one knows it more than they do.

[Dem2]

19. Rabadabbadoo

Never heard of them, What did Nate say about this pollster?

[Overseas]

20. I'm so glad. I thought she did a wonderful job!

She can sound geeky because she's been a policy wonk for years, but I really thought the speech showed how dedicated she is to public service.

[ToxMarz]

22. I love the RuPuke assessment

"Tim Albrecht, a Republican partner with RABA Research. 'All of the speakers at her convention this week have day jobs and cannot devote all of their time helping to prop her up on the campaign trail'."

Because we know Chachi and Antonio Sabato Jr don't have jobs and have nothing but time. Plus the Trumplings can get a note from Dad to take off work.

I guess we should just give up now. Lol.

[Bill USA]

23. nice!

[Bigredhunk]

26. & yet

I flip on MSNBC just now and it's a drumpf rally...the graphic onscreen reads: "Clinton Losing Among White Men W/Out College Education" - or some such thing. How about "drumpf is losing among educated voters" -or- "drumpf is losing among every other group" -or- what "drumpf needs to do to beat Hillary." Everything is about what Hil needs to do. Let's talk about 0% from African Americans for drumpf. That's pretty newsworthy, no?

[workinclasszero]

31. White men no longer control elections

in the USA.

Women and PoC are the growing force here.

[LW1977]

32. F**k M$NBc! They interviewed Jill Stein during their DNC coverage.

I get my news from online sources like here, crooks and liars and daily kos. 24 hour cable "news channels can go f**k themselves!

[glennward]

29. That's just the beginning. It will higher next week. nt

[LW1977]

30. What the hell is going on at fivethirtyeight?

Every time I logged into the projects page of theirs, the race keeps tightening, thet are only a percentage point away from one and other!

[LW1977]

33. Now trumps ahead on fivethirtyeight!

They better be having technical difficulties!

[MohRokTah]

37. Silver is the only one doing this.

He wants eyes on glass.

[musicblind]

42. No, he's just using a very reactionary model for the Nowcast

The Polls Plus is the model to watch. That is the one most likely to be accurate.

The Nowcast has a huge LOESS curve that is intentionally reactionary and includes all kinds of data that likely won't matter in November.

The Polls Only and Polls Plus models are much better. The Nowcast is basically for shits and giggles.

[MohRokTah]

43. Yes, and he invented the Nowcast model this cycle to put eyes on glass.

He knew EXACTLY what he was doing when he created this model. It creates buzz and both sides give it a click.

Cha-ching.

[uponit7771]

44. +1, His "now cast" bullshit is too subjective... no fuzzy logic even used just someones opinion base

... based on recent news and other stupid shit.

Now that there are other polls using a similar model to his from a couple of years ago he has to delineate his... he can use tighter scoring etc but he decided to go to click bate model.

[Sugarcoated]

40. Oh, you poor baby

Such hand wringing....lol

[MFM008]

38. I think we're still seeing

Post convention numbers for the maggot. It's only been a week. Next week should look better.

[progressoid]

41. That's the difference between National polling -vs- State polling

Trump is winning in a lot of big states. Texas, Florida, Ohio

However, a lot of 538's polls are over a month old.

[uponit7771]

45. +1, "...However, a lot of 538's polls are over a month old..." I don't know what's up with Silver

... on that, his scoring model for the polls still hasn't tightened either.

HUG MOE polls still get scored high

[bucolic_frolic]

34. That convention hit Trump

night after night in subtle ways and calm, explicit, reasoned ways, all delivered
by political stars

It was like broadside after broadside by Admiral Nelson's warship Victory at Trafalgar

Keep going, the Democratic Party has been waiting a long time for this opportunity

IF that bounce is 80% accurate we are in good shape at this point

But always, keep working, don't relent, the proof is on Nov 8

[smirkymonkey]

35. Bravo!

[Scurrilous]

39. K & R

[tavernier]

46. I still say, Don't wait till you see the whites of their eyes...

Fire Fire Fire Fire and Keep Firing!!

[unitedwethrive]

47. I'm feeling better now!

[lindysalsagal]

48. Online poll. Not my first choice, honestly.

Not saying it's wrong, but not overjoyed, either. Plus, the next poll puts fRump up in Virginia. Not good news.

[SunSeeker]

50. That VA poll was taken July 26-27.

Kaine's speech was the evening of the 27th. Hillary's was on the 28th. So that poll doesn't really take into account the bounce Hillary got from the convention, nor Kaine's speech.

[lindysalsagal]

49. http://www.electoral-vote.com much more reliable

And right now, even if fRump got all 47 of the tie votes, he still loses. Remember that the popular vote doesn't matter.

[Ken Burch]

51. Great. So it's time to stop sniping at the Sanders people. The holdouts are coming around.

n/t.