Let's See How Clinton Looks At Her Weakest in the Polls

[Doctor Jack]

We are just coming off the Democratic Convention, as we all know, and most available polls right now are at the height of Trump's bounce. The situation in the polls is the weakest that Clinton has been at and if history is any indication, the weakest position she will be at until election day. I think it will be interesting to see where Hillary is at her worst in the polls to see how strong Trump really is.

National Average (this doesn't include the +15 poll from today): Clinton +2.4

Clinton 44.6%
Circus Peanut 42.2%

Electoral Vote:

Clinton 341
Cheeto 197



Swing States


Colorado=Clinton +5

Florida=Clinton +3

George=Dickhead +3

Iowa=Clinton +3

Michigan=Clinton +7

Missouri=Clownfart +6

New Hampshire=Clinton +3

North Carolina=Clinton +4

Pennsylvania=Clinton +4

Utah=Doganus McFuckwad +4

Virginia=Clinton +5

Wisconsin=Clinton +9

Nevada=Racist Tangerine +4 (extreme caution on this one, all of the polls in Nevada are extremely old)



Post convention is usually the absolute best numbers a candidate can get and even then Trump is still very far behind, especially in the electoral vote. Remember, no candidate in the past 80 years has ever been behind at this point in the election and went on to win. Of course it isn't over until its over but I would say Trump's odds of winning are extremely bleak.

[Chevy]

1. +4 in Utah? That's it?

Seen polls in MO that they are tied.

[Doctor Jack]

2. Its all about averages

By far the most accurate take on the polls

[Chevy]

3. To see those Red states that close is quite something n/t

[Motley13]

4. Harry Reid can deliver Nevada for Hill

he did it for her against Bernie

[thucythucy]

10. Not too mention the hate Romney has for Trumple-thin-skin.

Romney is actually popular in Utah, and his trashing Trump might make a difference.

[yardwork]

5. The demented circus peanut is only up by 3 in Georgia.

Georgia!

[clutterbox1830]

6. I'm not worried about Nevada.

Nevada is a tough place to poll. It probably the toughest state to poll in the US; remember Harry Reid vs Sharron Angle.
Most polls are done on "off-hours", but that does not apply to Nevada since there is quite % of voters that work at night compare to any other state. That why polling is so inaccurate here and favors Republicans. It also why there is little polling there too since most polling firm do not like stake their reputation on this state.

See Examples.

2008
RCP Average: 43.8 50.3 Obama +6.5 over McCain
Actual Result: 42.7 55.2 Obama +12.5 over McCain
Difference 6%

2010
RCP Average: 48.0 - 45.3 Angle +2.7 over Reid
Actual Result: 44.6 50.2 Reid +5.6 over Angle
Difference 8.3%

2012
RCP Average: 50.2 47.4 Obama +2.8 over Romney
Actual Result: 52.4 45.7 Obama +6.7 over Romney
Difference 3.9%

Since ~20% of the voters are Latino (and mainly Mexican descent) , Trump will have a tough time winning this state.

Iowa, Wisconisin, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, NC, and Colorado will go red before Nevada.

[uponit7771]

9. +1

[grubbs]

7. Omg

The trump euphemisms! Laughing so hard it freaking hurts man!

[uponit7771]

8. Do you mean behind in the calendar year or post convention? I thought Dukakis had a huge bump post

... convention and got beat also?

tia

[Doctor Jack]

12. I know papa bush got a massive bump in 1988

And that is when he pulled into the lead after being down by double digits for most of the year. 1988 is the one exception to the trend that whoever is behind consistantly by late July/early August doesnt win. I thinkg Bush pilled ahead by mid august. Even if Bush went against the trend and was still behind in late July, 97% (that is the actual percentage) of candidates that were behind at this point in the calander year went on to lose.

If Trump is still behind in 2 weeks he will be at a point where 100% of the losing candidates in the past 80 years have been. I find it very unlikely that this shit for brains is going to be the one to defy it. He hasnt defied the polls yet and i dont think he will now.

[Grassy Knoll]

11. K&R For Doganus McFuckwad