2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew AJC poll sees HRC leading trump by 4 in Georgia
Democrat Hillary Clinton has built a slim lead over Donald Trump in Georgia after one of the worst weeks of the Republicans campaign, and the Libertarian presidential ticket cracked double-digits, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll.
The poll released Friday shows Clinton at 44 percent and Trump at 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup, within the polls margin of error. It is the latest showing a close race between the two candidates in Georgia, a state that has voted for the GOP nominee since 1996.
In a four-way race, Clinton led Trump 41-38, followed by Libertarian Gary Johnson with 11 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein with 2 percent.
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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/05/ajc-poll-hillary-clinton-has-slim-lead-over-donald-trump-in-georgia/
Response to cali (Original post)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Give us GA, MO, AZ I'm getting greedy. The bigger the margin, the better the Senate will look and the more shit she can get accomplished.
cali
(114,904 posts)helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)would have Hillary in the lead. So I guess the next polls will include the fallout from Khan. I think the national poll that had him at 33 included some of Khan.
yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)This is also probably why McCain so far is disagreeing with Trump but not un-endorsing him. That will change if Hillary takes a stable lead in Arizona.
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)In 2008, John McCainwho did not hold the White House for his Republican Partylost the U.S. Popular Vote by 7.26 and carried Georgia by +5.20.
In 2012, Mitt Romneywho did not unseat Barack Obamalost the U.S. Popular Vote by +3.86 and carried Georgia by +7.80.
The Republican tilts in 2008 and 2012 Georgia was R+12.46 and R+11.66. It is not that these tilts have to hold. But, if they were to do that, here in 2016, this would indicate Democrat Hillary beating Republican Trump nationally by D+16.
A 16-point margin is tough to imagine. But, given this is Donald Trump, it may not be that tough.
A Democratic national margin of +16 means pickups from North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Nebraskas 2nd Congressional District (Omaha), Montana, South Carolina, Texas, and Nebraskas 1st Congressional District (Lincoln).
No one is predicting Trump to lose that badly. Those statesalong with retaining all of Barack Obamas re-election map from 2012would give Hillary Clinton 34 states, plus District of Columbia, and 447 electoral votes. (I havent even mentioned Utah. How much that stateusually the Republicans No. 1 for percentage-points marginswould shift is not easy to predict.) But, we are still three months from the election. And it can get worse for Donald Trump.
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)GA and AZ are though. According to upshot's 4 model combo predictor.