2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWith 95 days left until the election........can tRump turn the polls around??
according to the polls on MSNBC he is so far behind it looks impossible, can he turn them around??
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)...God forbid another terrorist attack or escalation towards war. More casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The economy could turn the other direction.
An October surprise.
HRC falters in the debates, since the bar has been set so high for her and so low for Trump.
Again, anything could happen.
underpants
(182,829 posts)MattP
(3,304 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)He seems to only stay on target for a few minutes.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)The question is....is it probable...I highly doubt trump can remake himself...he never has ever done a turn around
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)But that was well before the conventions which were later that year. He led Bush by 4 at this time and Bush led him by 4 after the conventions and never looked back.
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)I've been saying for awhile now that Trump never stood a chance in the general simply because there aren't enough bigots and too many minorities for him to get elected. Consider that he still has several months to stick his foot in his mouth again, and three debates in October.
So in my opinion, no chance in hell will he ever be president.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)He's now viewed as an unserious and unqualified candidate. Anything he says that would normally be seen as being positive will be seen as pandering - or worse - as just reading another person's thoughts. The press and the public are now interested only in what his next gaffe will be, and they treat it as a gaffe.
He's crossed the line that can't be uncrossed.
piechartking
(617 posts)Don't count Bush DUI , because Bush still won ( ok whatever, he still became President!)
Bin Laden video right before election, but wasn't Kerry behind anyway?
Christie hugging on Obama? But Romney was already behind (besides that ridiculous Gallup poll)
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Whenever there are two opponents, with the exception of the Globertrotters and Generals, one can win.
It's about probabilities.
He has about a 1 in 4.5 chance:
http://predictwise.com/
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)The campaign is over if it was independent of everything. The only thing that can change the outcome is an outside event, like a massive attack, or an actual real scandal for Hillary, one that is unambiguously serious.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)He has to has discipline, which he does not have, and he needs some news events to break his way.
Personally, I am feeling more and more confident in victory.
eissa
(4,238 posts)A damaging Wiki dump by fuckface Assange in October. Terror attacks always swing the electorate rightward. Or if he miraculously manages to stay on message until November without another gaffe (yeah, I know, I'm laughing while typing that.)
Yes, things look good, but we have to remind ourselves that nearly half this country will vote republican, mental instabilities be damned.
StraightRazor
(260 posts)Prior to the conventions and the last week of gaffes, he was tied, or barely behind or even barely ahead of Hillary.
If a single San Bernardino event happens again that can be tied directly to 'Radical Islamic Terrorism®', all of the the gains of the last two weeks will be washed away and we will be inundated with Terror, Terror, Terror which will bring the polls right back to where they were.
Kahn who?
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)As soon as he starts acting like a somewhat rational human being someone will come along and piss him off, then its off to the races for Herr Trump.
Twitter storm incoming! lol