Why a Meaningful Shift in the Trump-Clinton Race May Be at Hand

[riversedge]

Hillary Clinton campaigning in Denver on Wednesday. It has been a week of good polls for her. Credit Ruth Fremson/The New York Times
Keep fingers and toes crossed.

Why a Meaningful Shift in the Trump-Clinton Race May Be at Hand

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/06/upshot/why-a-meaningful-shift-in-the-trump-clinton-race-may-be-at-hand.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn AUG. 5, 2016


Hillary Clinton has a large and perhaps growing lead in the nation and in many of the predominantly white battleground states where Donald Trump was thought to have his best shot, according to a wave of new surveys released in the last two days.

Three national surveys — from Fox, NBC/WSJ and Marist/McClatchy — showed Mrs. Clinton ahead by big margins: 10, 9 and 15 percentage points. It’s the worst polling stretch for a presidential candidate at this stage since John McCain in mid-October of 2008.

It’s a little hard to make sense of it all, in part because the timing is a little unusual. This ought to be the heart of Mrs. Clinton’s post-convention bounce, when polling analysts generally preach caution. On the other hand, Mr. Trump had a tough week of his own making — drawing condemnation from Republican leaders and even causing a few high-profile defections from donors and the conservative media.

The prudent approach is to wait, and see whether Mrs. Clinton’s lead endures for another week or two — after convention bounces usually fade. In the interim, we can cautiously say that there is more reason than usual to think that Mrs. Clinton’s newfound lead represents a meaningful shift in the race, one that would make a comeback for Mr. Trump seem daunting if it holds.

In general, it’s not worth overthinking post-convention bounces. ....................


Part of the reason Mrs. Clinton’s bounce seems more likely to last is that it seems to be coming from greater party unity: growing support from Bernie Sanders’s backers. The Marist poll showed Mrs. Clinton with the support of 90 percent of his voters, while a CNN poll gave her 91 percent. These numbers had usually been in the 60s or 70s.................................................



A few tweets:

The Upshot @UpshotNYT
Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the election now stand at 80 percent, according to our model.
nyti.ms/2aWTRU3
14m ago





The Upshot @UpshotNYT
Why a meaningful shift in the poll numbers might be under way.


Why a meaningful shift in the Trump-Clinton race may be taking place. http://nyti.ms/2aCZYv1


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/06/upshot/why-a-meaningful-shift-in-the-trump-clinton-race-may-be-at-hand.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur

[apcalc]

1. No idea what your chart is showing...

[riversedge]

4. clink on link to the story in the tweet OP--there is an interactive graph....

[chillfactor]

2. I am not sure....

what your chart is showing...is it missing the name of the states?

[SharonClark]

3. I went to the link and the complete chart is interesting.