2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWho are the 4 to 5 senate candidates...
... we can most count on to take back the senate?
I expect this info has been posted before, but I don't recall.
TIA
LAS
brooklynite
(94,572 posts)Feingold (WI)
Duckworth (IL)
Bayh (IN)
McGinty (PA)
Hassan (NH)
Prospects:
Strickland (OH)
Ross (NC)
Kander (MO)
Kirkpatrick (AZ)
I live in MA but had already started donating to Hassan.
I urge all DUers to adopt a candidate if their own state doesn't have a contest.
House too! I adopted Carol Shea-Porter from NH.
Lifelong Protester
(8,421 posts)I am counting on Russ Feingold, I send money to Duckworth and McGinty.
OH - Ted Strickland
WI - Russ Feingold
IL - Tammy Duckworth
PA - Katie McGinty
NH - Maggie Hassan
FL - Murphy or Grayson
Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)Grayson is polling VERY poorly amongst registered Dems in FL as of recent due to accusations by his ex-wife. Murphy's gonna get the nod.
cali
(114,904 posts)and no, I'm not a Grayson supporter. I'm a long time detractor and he'd do even worse, I believe, against Rubio.
Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)But Murphy has O's endorsement, so he ended up with my vote.
Also, I know you're not a Grayson supporter. I remember you on many of the anti-Grayson threads.
I saw that Rubio is polling ahead of Murphy. Too many idiots in Central Florida, is the problem.
D_Master81
(1,822 posts)I dont see any way that Young wins the race now that Bayh is in it. I think he will make it more competitive than any race Bayh has run in Indiana, but I think every race Bayh has run he has gotten over 60% of the vote, so I dont see him losing this time around either.
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Rs 54. Ds 46.
Ds need to win pickups with a minimum of 5.
Likely order:
Illinois. Mark Kirk getting unseated by Tammy Duckworth. This state has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate in a presidential year since 1972 (when Richard Nixon won 49 states with re-election).
Wisconsin. A rematch
this time Ron Johnson getting unseated by Russ Feingold. Every presidential election since 1976, with the state having a scheduled U.S. Senate election, has resulted in same-party carriage for both the presidential/senatorial levels. (Rs won just oncein 1980 with Ronald Reagan and Bob Kasten who, in 1992, was unseated by Feingold while Bill Clinton carried the state.)
New Hampshire. Kelly Ayotte getting unseated by Maggie Hassan. The current governor is better on politics than the sitting senator. (Think of Ayottes gun vote.) New Hampshire tilts +2 for Democrats. So, this has a lot of writing on the walland Ayotte, thankfully, doesn't have the skill of, say, Maines Susan Collins and former U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe to escape.
Ohio. Rob Portman getting unseated by Ted Strickland. The state is on the same-party coattails pattern since 1992. And it is the nations most reputable bellwether state.
Pennsylvania. Pat Toomey getting unseated by Katie McGinty. Coattails effect.
North Carolina. I havent kept track of the Democratic primarybut, like with Wisconsin, the same-party, presidential/senatorial levels dates back to 1972. (I sense the trending next-bellwether state of North Carolina will emerge with Democratic pickups on three counts: U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and Governor of North Carolina.)
More (but not necessarily the limit)
Florida
Arizona
Missouri
Indiana
Georgia
Iowa