With apologies: Now for the bad news.

[cali]

Yesterday I was brimming with confidence about... well, everything regarding the upcoming election.

Today, I'm reminded that that is unwise.

Hillary has the lead, but there are real problems on the horizon regarding taking back the Senate. Yes, Duckworth and Feingold are prohibitive favorites. In Wisconsin, where a new poll shows HRC with a big lead, today a Federal Appeals Court stayed the ruling by the lower district court that through a spoke in the works of republican attempts to suppress minority voters:

Federal appeals court issues stay of voter ID ruling

read:http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/federal-appeals-court-issues-stay-of-voter-id-ruling/article_da79480c-9d7a-5bf4-8240-8ab3c21f97b4.html

Two new polls show Trump stabilizing.

Bloomberg has her up by 6- outside the MoE but not comfortable, and down from the previous poll.

The UPI tracking poll:


WASHINGTON, Aug. 10 (UPI) -- Donald Trump stabilized his polling numbers for a second day, gaining ground while Hillary Clinton slipped slightly in the UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Wednesday.

As of data collected since Monday, Clinton leads the race by 3.5 percentage points, 48.5 percent to Trump's 45 percent.

<snip>

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/10/UPICVoter-poll-Trump-stabilizes-standing-for-a-second-consecutive-day/8001470837116/


And more alarming is this detailed piece:

THE BIG IDEA: In all but one of this year’s Senate races, the Republican incumbent is meaningfully outperforming Donald Trump in the polls.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll that was conducted last month on the eve of the conventions found that both the presidential race and the Senate race in Ohio were tied.

A fresh version of their poll, released last night, showed that Hillary Clinton has opened a 5-point lead over Trump among registered voters in Ohio. At the same time, Republican Sen. Rob Portman – who kept his distance from Trump during the convention in Cleveland – now leads by 5 points over Democratic challenger Ted Strickland.

That remarkable 10-point spread is quite unusual compared to recent elections, which have become increasingly nationalized.

It’s just the latest data point in a stream of public opinion research that has given Mitch McConnell hope he can keep his job as Senate Majority Leader.

A Suffolk poll last week showed Clinton winning Florida by 6 points even as Republican Sen. Marco Rubio led his likely Democratic challenger by 13 points (a 19-point spread). Quinnipiac and Marist surveys last month also showed a 10-point spread in Rubio’s favor.

-- I reviewed three dozen surveys conducted since late June across the 11 states that will determine control of the upper chamber. On average, the Republican incumbent has outperformed Trump by 8 points. (This includes states that are likely holds for the GOP, such as Iowa, where Clinton leads by 4 points but Sen. Chuck Grassley is up 10 points.)

<snip>

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/08/10/daily-202-state-polls-give-gop-fresh-hope-for-holding-senate-majority-but-trump-headwinds-might-be-too-strong/57aa8200cd249a2fe363ba0f/

I don't know about anyone else, but I find it all too easy to get overconfident. Trump is so awful and has such a bad case of terminal foot in mouth disease, I keep thinking, it's impossible that he could come back.

There's a lot of wisdom in the words, fight like you're behind, and take nothing for granted.

[Agschmid]

1. It's ridiculous isn't it...

This isn't going to be nearly as easy as everyone assumes.

[Gothmog]

2. The plaintiffs may be able to reverse on en banc

There is another case pending but the Plaintiffs may be able to get this reverse en banc http://electionlawblog.org/?p=85176

The plaintiffs could well go to the full 7th Circuit en banc, and as I noted in my post on the district court’s order, the Seventh Circuit has recently gone from a 5-5 split on the question of the propriety of these voter ids to one that now appears to be 5-4 skeptical of these id requirements. But that doesn’t necessarily translate into a 5-4 vote to reverse the stay and put the affidavit softening in place. One issue will be timing. Another is whether the softening comports with what has happened earlier in the case and with Crawford.

Whatever the full 7th Circuit might do, I expect that is likely the last word (unless there is a Purcell/timing question posed). The Supreme Court on the merits could well split 4-4 if and when the case gets there.

Meanwhile, there is a second case pending in which a trial court ordered different softening measures for Wisconsin’s voter id law, as well as striking other Wisconsin election laws. That case remains pending on appeal, and is not affected by today’s order. (It is not clear if the same panel will have that case.)

[RandySF]

3. That stay only applies to WI

And while it sucks, we still won the most agregious case in NC.

[asiliveandbreathe]

4. It is inevitabe polls are going to move around..daily -

for me - 538 is a collection of all polls that come in - not just 1 individual poll - which cannot be taken as a measure of what is happening overall...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Be well - we are all vigilant - GOTV

[pnwmom]

5. That UPI poll is a WORTHLESS self-selected online poll with no reported margin of error because

it isn't possible to calculate a margin of error from a non-random sample.

The UPI/CVoter online daily presidential tracking poll surveys about 200 people per day, leading to a rolling sample size of roughly 1,400 people in any seven-day span. Because individuals self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated.

[cali]

7. OK. But I suggest reading the piece about the Senate.

I'm still fairly confident that HRC will win, but becoming overconfident and ignoring such information regarding the discrepancies between her polling in certain purple states and the polling of Senate candidates the same states, is a warning bell.

Overconfidence is dangerous.

[pnwmom]

9. I'm not overconfident. That's why I'm not ignoring Stein and all the people who think her presence

in the race poses no threat.

But I also don't think we should let ourselves get demoralized by fake polls like UPI's and Dornsife's.

[cali]

10. Stein is irrelevant. I suggest reading the WaPo article.

[pnwmom]

13. She's not irrelevant. You were saying we shouldn't be complacent. If you're serious about that,

then you wouldn't be saying she's irrelevant.

Nader changed the 2000 election outcome with only 2.74% of the national vote because he, like Stein, concentrated his campaign efforts on the swing states.

[asiliveandbreathe]

11. You beat me to it - re UPI/CVoter....polling - online

GOTV

[onehandle]

6. UPI is owned by the Moonies. So forget about it. nt

[cali]

8. OK, but don't just cherry pick from the sources posted.

[Justice]

12. Not bad news, just a reminder that we cannot stop until election day.

[progressoid]

14. I'm cautiously confident about the Presidential race.

The Senate and House races, not so much. I had hoped for down-ticket bump from Hillary's lead but I expect GOPers will fight to hold on to their advantage there.