2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver got one thing wrong: Ohio wasn't the tipping point state--Colorado was.
The tipping point state is the state that puts the winner over the top. Not in time, but in closeness of the vote. You essentially count your safest states first--Hawaii, Vermont, D.C., New York etc until you get to 270. Everything closer than the tipping point state is padding for the lead.
Per the WaPo, the closest states were:
1. Florida: 0.6 percent (Obama 49.9, Romney 49.3.)
2. Ohio: 1.9 percent (Obama 50.1, Romney 48.2)
3. North Carolina: 2.2 percent (Romney 50.6, Obama 48.4)
4. Virginia (99% reporting): 3.0 percent (Obama 50.8, Romney 47.8)
5. Colorado: 4.7 percent (Obama 51.2, Romney 46.5)
6. Pennsylvania (99% reporting): 5.2 percent (Obama 52, Romney 46.8)
7. Iowa: 5.6 percent (Obama 52.1, Romney 46.5)
8. New Hampshire (99% reporting): 5.8 percent (Obama 52.2, Romney 46.4)
9. Nevada (99% reporting): 6.6 percent (Obama 52.3, Romney 45.7)
10. Wisconsin: 6.7 percent (Obama 52.8, Romney 46.1
The Obama states not close enough to make this list awarded him 217 Electoral Votes (Hawaii through Michigan).
Wisconsin brings the total to 227, Nevada makes 233, New Hampshire makes it 237, Iowa makes it 243, Pennsylvania (closer than many battleground states) made it 263.
And the state that put him over the top? Colorado, with 9 Electoral Votes, put him at 272. Virginia made it 285.
Ohio and Florida were the two narrowest wins. Conversely, Silver's model ranked the states in likelihood of being the tipping point:
Ohio: 49.8%
Virginia: 12.3%
Nevada: 9.9%
Iowa: 6.6%
Colorado: 6.4%
What does this tell us? That Ohio wound up being a heck of a lot closer than the public polling suggested. Similarly, Pennsylvania was much closer than the public polls suggested while Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire and even Virginia saw Obama with wider leads than projected.
fizzgig
(24,146 posts)colorado has changed so much in the last 12 years.
Cha
(297,240 posts)moons ago. From Hawai'i
bama_blue_dot
(224 posts)That would seem that the dirty tricks both states were pulling worked.. Just not enough..
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)counted next week there are more Obama votes than Romney votes in there (which is why Husted was trying to get as many thrown out as possible).
It's also possible that the polls just overstated his lead there--they missed in other states too in both directions.
Ohio typically leans 1-3 points to the right of the nation. So, if Obama won by 2.5-3%, it somewhat makes sense that he'd have a 1-2% win there.
november3rd
(1,113 posts)How many people realize O wins without the "Big Three" even being needed in his column?
There were tons of provisionals in the PA section where I was watching the polls. 1 out of 10 registered voters was missing from the roll book and couldn't vote.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)We own major real estate in their historic electoral back yard.
Demographics in Ohio actually make it most likely for them to take back of the three--it's the least diverse of the three.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Florida and NC (Charlotte particularly) will help turn GA.
State borders are becoming more and more fluid. And as part of one state turns blue, it can start to influence the neighbors.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Just a function of demographics.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)I grew up in Philly, but I've been living in NC for the last 20 years.
And my wife and I have added 3 more Democrats to the state. And our oldest, 19, voted for Obama on Tuesday. The coast of NC has many environmentally oriented folks, Raleigh is very diverse, you have Chapel Hill and Durham with UNC and Duke, then Charlotte, Asheville ... the state is shifting ... even if the crazies made some progress this time.
I think we will see NC and VA move left in the next 2 decades.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)who have cultural ties to other parts of the country, universities, etc.
It'll probably be a swing state for quite some time.
RosedaleGuy
(89 posts)...that's a big fucking deal. Ohio and Florida have a lot of Republicans and each presidential election has always centered around them. Today we have Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin. If dems can strengthen their hold of these states the GOP will have a hard time winning another presidential election.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)If those states become reliable DEM states ... the GOP, as it currently exists, is toast. Their immigration policies ALONE will kill them in the West. They lose OHIO, and VA, and FL too, their party is over.
TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)And it will happen sometime in the next 20-30 years unless they do a 180 on immigration policy.
Panasonic
(2,921 posts)I said we would deliver the EV needed to break 270!
Colorado rules!
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Kerry states=251 Electoral votes.
Iowa makes it 257. Colorado plus Nevada makes it 272.
The real firewall is in the West, not the Midwest.
Cha
(297,240 posts)I had no idea
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)state. I think the new bellweather in NC or maybe CO.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)KamaAina
(78,249 posts)Got vote suppression?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)votes that other states caught.
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)there are sizable Latino communities in eastern PA, especially Norristown (which accepts Mexican national ID) and Reading. And, of course, there's Hazleton, where the angry white males tried to stop landlords from renting to Latinos, er, I mean "undocumented people".
november3rd
(1,113 posts)What do you mean that N-town "accepts Mexican national id?"
I grew up in Norristown, but haven't been back there in 30 years.
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)KamaAina
(78,249 posts)New Mexico: Blue. Nevada: Blue. Colorado: Now Blue.
Arizona: Barry Bonds-size *. http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021759187
Utah: (sigh)
kestrel91316
(51,666 posts)Virginia were completely moot.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Now that the actual returns are in, we dont need the simulations or the forecast model. It turned out, in fact, that although the FiveThirtyEight model had a very strong night over all on Tuesday, it was wrong about the identity of the tipping-point state. Based on the polls, it appeared that Ohio was the state most likely to win Mr. Obama his 270th electoral vote. Instead, it was Colorado that provided him with his win the same state that did so in 2008.
The worry for Republicans is that Mr. Obama won Colorado by nearly five percentage points (4.7 points was his margin there, to the decimal place). In contrast, Mr. Obamas margin in the national popular vote, as of this writing, is 2.4 percentage points. We estimate that it will grow to 2.5 percentage points once some remaining returns from states like Washington are accounted for, or perhaps slightly higher once provisional ballots in other states are counted. But it seems clear that Mr. Obama had some margin to spare in the Electoral College.
outsideworld
(601 posts)davidpdx
(22,000 posts)NC loss by 2.2%. That's close. Still we can be happy we got close to a sweep of the swing states.
AJH032
(1,124 posts)But because of the extensive efforts to suppress the vote, and the provisional ballot crisis, Obama only ended up winning by about 2.
Cha
(297,240 posts)K-Matt
(83 posts)certainly helped
LisaL
(44,973 posts)cheezmaka
(737 posts)My eyes were "glued" to the tv watching OH and FL... Next thing you know, the President, gets 270! I'm asking myself, "Where did those electoral votes come from?"
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Wonder what happened there?
Voter suppression?
Obama appears to only be about 2% ahead of Romney in Ohio.
By contrast, Virginia, a state which until 2008 hadn't voted Democratic since LBJ in 1964, gave Obama a 3% win over Romney, despite it being supposedly more conservative.