Lololololololololol!!!!! Romney campaign unskewed their internal polls

[geek tragedy]

Their chief pollster, Neil Newhouse, took his professional reputation, poured gasoline on it, and set it on fire.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57547239/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/?pageNum=1&tag=page

As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed - they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn't reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney. That was a grave miscalculation, as they would see on election night.

Those assumptions drove their campaign strategy: their internal polling showed them leading in key states, so they decided to make a play for a broad victory: go to places like Pennsylvania while also playing it safe in the last two weeks.

Those assessments were wrong.

Result:

Romney was stoic as he talked the president, an aide said, but his wife Ann cried. Running mate Paul Ryan seemed genuinely shocked, the adviser said. Ryan's wife Janna also was shaken and cried softly.

"There's nothing worse than when you think you're going to win, and you don't," said another adviser. "It was like a sucker punch."

Their emotion was visible on their faces when they walked on stage after Romney finished his remarks, which Romney had hastily composed, knowing he had to say something.

Both wives looked stricken, and Ryan himself seemed grim. They all were thrust on that stage without understanding what had just happened.

"He was shellshocked," one adviser said of Romney.

[TwilightGardener]

1. Amateur hour on a grand scale.

[geek tragedy]

2. Dean Chambers may get a job for the 2016 nominee. nt

[KurtNYC]

3. classic "Bullshit bubble"

Some corporate suits do this -- surround themselves with people who tell them what they want to hear and call anything else "negativity."

It is a dangerous practice for a leader.

[BainsBane]

18. Exactly. nt

[warpigs]

58. Especially the POTUS (EOM)

[craigmatic]

4. I don't understand how they didn't see this coming. 2008 wasn't a fluke it was a landslide and we

took congress then too. They seriously underestimated Obama.

[geek tragedy]

9. Worse, they failed Polling 101.

Party ID/turnout should not be a subjective input or parameter, ever.

It should be based on empirical observation, not some lame hunch like picking a midpoint between the two most recent elections.

Neil Newhouse, Romney's chief pollster, has flushed his entire career down the toilet.

[Whisp]

47. so this Newhouse guy was basically lying to Romney about the numbers?

I'm not sure I get this, but am pretty sure I like it.

[LiberalFighter]

5. What a pity

[PsychProfessor]

6. Further proof that the guy was unfit

To be president. Can you imagine being so freakingcareless with your own hopes and dreams? Protecting your self from any information that doesn't fit your agenda? Delusional!

[surrealAmerican]

50. Well said, PP.

Unfortunately, I think we all know people like this: they can't admit to facts in conflict with their "vision".

[Quantess]

68. That describes every single religious fundamentalist.

Every single christian who says the earth is only 6000 years old, every single backwards muslim who thinks god gave them the permission to murder gays and adulterous women, and every single nutty mormon who believes in planet kolob and believes magic underwear will protect them.

[underpants]

53. My wife said the same thing when I told her about this

I am telling you - Fox News and radio has them warped even at the highest levels of their own party.

[Scootaloo]

7. They really had no concept that we wouldn't just hand them the keys

[faithfulcitizen]

56. +1

[LiberalFighter]

8. At least the neighbors around Ryan's home in Janesville should be happy he lost.

Talked to someone that saw Secret Service had it barricaded and high security. Making it difficult to get around.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. A Legitimate Campaign Pollster Would Have Made The Most Small c Conservative Assumptions

A legitimate campaign pollster would have made the most small c conservative assumptions when building a poll...

And couldn't they see something was wrong when all the betting markets made Romney a huge underdog.


Total amateurs...

[geek tragedy]

12. Seriously, professional pollsters were shocked that bloggers

would consider that a valid talking point.

Romney's chief pollster cooked up this voodoo polling.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. This Would Have Been The First Election In Modern History Where Public Polling

This would have been the first election in modern history where public polling was off to the extent it would have to had been to allow a Romney victory.

We're not talking "Dewey Defeats Truman" or Bush's razor edge 00 victory...


Total fail...

[geek tragedy]

25. What's amazing is that they had ZERO empirical support for this.

None.

Zip.

Zilch.

It was entirely pulled out of thin air.

Romney was supposed to be a numbers guy, and as it turns out he was just a liar, to the point where he lied to himself.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. All Real Clear Politics Did Is Accumulate Polls And Average Them

They didn't weight them. They just averaged them and by doing that their final averages showed O winning the pop vote by .07% and winning all the swing states but FL and 303 EC Votes. The only state they got wrong was FL.

As much as I loathe Republicans and question their intelligence me thinks the delusion on many parts of Team Romney was intentional. Nobody that draws a pay check can be that dumb.

[geek tragedy]

31. It's dumbfounding. This isn't some esoteric thing--it's basic math.

It never occurred to me that their internal polling could be Dean Chambers bad.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Instead Of Operating On The 99.95% Probability That The Polls In Toto Were Right

They were operating on the .05 probability the pols were wrong.

[geek tragedy]

35. They were like the rest of the dumbfucks on Fox who treat Rasmussen as gospel.

Whatever we want the numbers to be, thats' what they are.

Whether it's tax plans or internal polling.

[Maximumnegro]

32. Racism is all the empirical support you need.

They didn't think the black guy would win twice even if people said they supported him. Plain and simple. Really. Remember Romney is a high ranking bishop in a church that believes black people are inferior as part of doctrine.

[geek tragedy]

36. White Men Can't Count. nt

[Whisp]

49. but but, were Romney's polls the only ones that were cooked?

why was everyone screaming horserace horserace to practically the last minute.

I don't think I'll ever understand that part.

[geek tragedy]

52. No, that was pundits who don't like math. nt

[Avalux]

11. I have my answer now.

I have always thought GOP leaders were smart, and manipulated their followers with alternate reality and delusional crap, while they remained firmly in reality. Like a game.

Now I know they're in the muck right along with their followers. It's hilarious!

[Grateful for Hope]

14. If the article truly reflects their thinking

then I am as surprised as you are. I have given then far more credit than they apparently deserve.

[Whisp]

51. what if...

the GOP just didn't want Romney in to mess up with their 2016 chances and golden boy nominee and got this Newhouse guy to poison the well so bad that Romney will never be a contender or threat to the republicans ever again.

I can't forget how absolutely hated this guy was by his own party, but when he won the primary (or bought it or blackmailed his way into it) they had to fall in line for appearances sake.

[Grateful for Hope]

64. Could be.

But the bitterness I am seeing suggests they had high hopes for this idiot. I think the PTB had no idea that the American electoric was able to see through their lies.

[Doctor_J]

17. Depends on how you define "GOP Leaders"

Someone among them knew they were losing. But Rmoney & Lyin' and Bush are not the leaders. They're just useful idiots like Fox Nation

[Avalux]

23. Rove

I'd say he's been a big GOP manipulator for a very long time.

[BainsBane]

20. Which is why Romney believed his own propaganda

about the 47% and Libya. It truly is astounding.

[LynneSin]

24. They were.....

Ten years they could get away with this shit. But the thing is this - they haven't evolved whatsoever. Their aging supporters are dying out and young voters are flocking to the democratic party.

They need a new schtick!

[Dont call me Shirley]

13. "And broken are their delusions of grandeur"

[Harry_Scrote]

16. Ya'll

Romney/Ryan thought they'd win, b/c the voting machines, and intimidation of voter ID rules would take them to a smoothe victory. That in addition to the moran votes themselves. But, we were on to their schemes the whole time and called them on their B.S. Republican mindset is easy to crack...

[progressivebydesign]

42. Bingo!! They thought it would be enough, and tho they won't say it publicly...

that was factored into the fantasyland polling numbers they showed internally.

[southmost]

19. always love a good blindsight

[Beowulf]

21. "We make our own reality"

That's what Rove said after the 2004 election. Maybe not so much today.

[LynneSin]

22. THEY BASED THEIR ENTIRE RACE ON THE NATIONWIDE POPULARITY POLLS

Had they followed just the EV votes they would have known they were in trouble.

[Maximumnegro]

33. They based their entire race on race.

They didn't believe he would win. That is the easiest and most simple explanation for buying their own BS. They were convinced 2008 was a novelty fluke and that the uppity house negro would get sent back to the plantation.

If you look at their choices through that lens everything becomes clear.

[high density]

26. It was all there on the 538 blog

I still laugh at their idea of getting Pennsylvania...

[Coyotl]

29. But, that is some form of evil magic, math and science you know

They threw reality out the window in favor of wishful thinking and self-delusion, a defense mechanism while waging a losing battle.

[rivegauche]

27. Idiots.

All they had to do was listen to Nate Silver, for MONTHS. Everyone here at DU knew (or was more than 50% confident) that Obama would win. But the repukes stubbornly live in their fantasy world, contrary to all reality. I don't feel one bit sorry for them.

[Firebirds01]

28. this is how its been sicne 2001

the reality based community versus whatever the fuck they are. They only listen to their own circle jerk and then demand that be the undeniable truth. Conservatives really believe everything they hear. They think everyone and everything is against them.

[wrath of medusa]

37. What a bunch of morans

This reaffirms my belief that the Republican Party is nothing more than a collective of anti-reality racists, bigots, religious zealots and overall delusional sheep. What a pathetic excuse in the 21st century. I'm ashamed that I share a nation composed of such ignorance, and frightened that these people have any say in our political discourse.

To anyone that denies the effectiveness of propaganda, I present you with the results of fauxnoise.

[Thrill]

38. Its really not that hard to see why they thought this

They didn't there was any chance Black and Hispanic voters would come out again and vote. Thats the bottom line. They thought 08 was just a fluke

[geek tragedy]

39. The point is that you're not supposed to take a subjective belief and base your model

on it.

Party ID and turnout is a measurable value--it's one of the things you can learn about from polls.

[budkin]

40. It's called delusion.

The super rich used to getting everything they want, and then not. Meltdown.

[progressivebydesign]

41. Not to mention the massive Dem voter suppression that he was assured would help him...

even with the republican governors and Sec of States purging voters, not allocating enough equipment to Democratic areas, deliberate disenfranchising of voters in Democratic area, and all of the filthy Citizens United cash.

That's probably MORE of why they're shocked, They thought they had it in the bag. The elections are never stolen in a grand productions, but they were assured from all States, that enough democrats would be discouraged or unable to vote, that they'd win it. Lets not forget that.

[courseofhistory]

43. Well, boo hoo for them and

can you imagine Romney surrounding himself with advisers who are so out of touch as President? I wondered about the advice he might be getting and his very strange ideas and flip flops. Maybe not all of it was just him. Nonetheless, I very glad he didn't win!!

[Gargoyle22]

44. Republicans "believe" a lot of things but don't know much.

Pretty scary that this nutjob who wasn't able to analyze the simplest of poll data was almost president.

[Azathoth]

45. Even their presidential campaigns are inside the bubble now. That party is doomed.

[Arugula Latte]

46. I thought all their poll bluster was pure PR to create a fake image of inevitability & momentum.

I never for a minute thought these numbnuts actually truly BELIEVED their own B.S.!

Also, may I add:

[grantcart]

48. but he got a big bonus

[Awsi Dooger]

54. Counting the same voter twice

That essentially what the unskewers were trying to do. A significant chunk of voters stopped identifying as Republican in 2010. I noted it at the time and scrambled for answers. Even in a landslide Republican win the party ID wasn't what it should have been for their side. Finally, many analysts who I respect concluded those were Tea Party -- or nearby -- voters, ones who considered themselves more conservative than the GOP so they preferred to self-identity as independent, almost defiantly.

This year Republican party ID was low but Romney generally led among independents. Hilariously, the desperate unskewers decided they could shove the party ID to equality or nearby, while retaining the Romney lead among independents. As I wrote in the header, it was counting the same voter twice. Once those very conservative "independents" were shifted to Republican party ID, there was no chance the independent pool would remain conservative and very Romney friendly. Every survey indicated Obama would win moderates handily, and he did.

As we learned in 2004, it's always preferable to actually lead the polls instead of molding them to your liking.

[geek tragedy]

55. One can't cherry pick data points from polls

Most common Republican fallacy was to rely on cross-tabs but ignore top lines of polls.

[courseofhistory]

57. This says it all about how out of touch they were with their anti-abortion garbage and just

about everything else! Losers. And most republicans are apparently not in touch with reality and making excuses for why they lost that are also not reality. The republican party is doomed I'm almost positive because they are loaded with fools!

[Cognitive_Resonance]

59. Believing their own BS...hook, line, and sinker. nt

[JCMach1]

60. I have been saying it... but it is now official Republicans ARE NOT a reality based party

[redwitch]

61. How could someone that clueless think he could be president of the USA?

Good Lord!

[Hercule_Poirot]

62. "It was like a sucker punch."

"There's nothing worse than when you think you're going to win, and you don't," said another adviser.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

63. Amazing

Wow. This truly may have been the most inept campaign ever. If you don't know you're losing by a huge amount the day of, you've got problems.

[UCmeNdc]

65. This article should be called, "Romney's incompetency cost him the election."

What else do you call someone who hires the wrong people to do the job of basic polling statistics?

Think about just how incompetent a Mitt Romney presidency would be.

[mnhtnbb]

66. This is what happens when you deny science...math...fact. SURPRISE!!!!

The world is not flat.

The earth is not the center of the solar system.

The earth is not 6000 years old.

Evolution is not 'just a theory'.

There is climate change.

Hello! Wake up! Facts DO matter.

[Corgigal]

67. Stephen Colbert is right

it's all about gut and feelings. No damn logic involved and certainly no facts if they change the narrative. Unbelievable. What a damn scary article because you know they play this on the low information voter but who believed they played the same game with the top brass?