Even with NV, IA, OH, NC, GA, and FL...

[Stubborn]

Trump would still lose.

"

[JustAnotherGen]

1. No link to check - why is NJ

Light blue?

Most of the Republicans I know in the very very Red NJ-7th district are voting Johnson/Weld and sticking with Leonard Lance for the House.

I.E. - Clinton maintains the blue streak - but Trump gets hurt by the Libertarians.

[geek tragedy]

4. it's the same shade as Oregon, probably due to a lack of polling

rather than any sign Trump has a chance there

[JustAnotherGen]

7. Thanks

This state ain't going for trump!

[SaschaHM]

2. I'm hoping for a 2008 election night situation

President Obama had already amassed 210 or so EVs before the CA/OR/WA came in.

[exboyfil]

3. Clinton ad buys

In total, Clinton will spend $3 million in ads for the remainder of August and $77 million in September and October, according to an aide. The states part of Clinton’s ad campaign: Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, North Carolina and the Omaha market in Nebraska.

http://kdvr.com/2016/08/22/clinton-campaign-not-planning-to-air-ads-in-colorado-other-states-through-october/

Pennsylvania is more in play than Colorado or Virginia for the Clinton camp. Same goes for New Hampshire. Taking the starting 270to win map - you only need to add PA, NH, VA, and CO as you did. Two of the states she is not even spending money on.

I hope she is not too overconfident about VA or CO.

[geek tragedy]

5. Neither campaign is advertising in CO or VA.

Trump and Clinton are both on the air in 4 states--FL, OH, NC, and PA.

Clinton has the airwaves to herself in: NH, IA, NV, Omaha.

[exboyfil]

8. That would do it for Trump

With Georgia and Arizona. Not a bad strategy. I have taken Pennsylvania something for granted given our previous success in the state. Of course running all four states seems unlikely. Trump cannot win without Pennsylvania even with Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He can only tie (and that includes the one vote from Omaha). Could he pull one vote from Maine for a clear majority?

[geek tragedy]

10. If he wins NH then certainly that CD in Maine might be in play.

But neither looks likely right now.

[Lefthacker]

6. Hillarys team won't succumb to overconfidence.

The internal staff is so organized and professional that they have a great game plan. They have so much data from internal polling that they know exactly where to put their resources. Compare that to the other team where they have to go into Austin for a rally. To me that is very telling.

[exboyfil]

9. You are probably right

Pennsylvania looks like the most important fire wall.

[WhiteTara]

11. And Clinton is up by 6 in Ohio. nt