Warning: Crappy landlines-only poll (Emerson) has Clinton +3 in PA

[molova]

Expect the media to go gaga over a new poll that underestimates the most liberal candidate (in this case, Hillary Clinton) by not bothering to poll cell phones. The pollster is pretending that Hillary and Trump are not only tied in Ohio but separated by only 3% in Pennsylvania. Clinton leads by 5% in MI which suggests that lead is larger.

Methodology:

The Emerson College Polling Society Ohio poll was conducted from August 25-27, 2016. The Michigan and Pennsylvania polls were conducted August 25-28, 2016. The samples consisted of 800 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results and Michigan results included regional weights. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only.

http://www.theecps.com/

[Democat]

1. Is this a school project, Emerson College Polling Society Ohio?

Sounds like a class project.

[Iliyah]

2. Landlines and HRC is still doing quite well?

[Proud Public Servant]

3. Great news

If HRC is up 3 in a landline-only poll, then she's actually winning the state in a walk!

[vadermike]

4. Hmm

How does Nate rate them and does he include these in his snapshots ?

[Democat]

5. Someone will helpfully post every anti-Clinton poll regardless of rating

Watch DU and you'll notice polls by every right wing group posted as thread starters.

[LenaBaby61]

11. I haven't really even begun to look at the polls...

And I've had to put several people on total ignore because they keep posting bogus poll/EC numbers information even when others have explained to them that some polls are not as accurate or fair as others.

[MoonRiver]

6. Bogus polls like this just help us GOTV!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Maybe on FOX.

The only university sponsored polls that generate buzz elsewhere are Qunnipiac. Monmouth, and Marist.

[Funtatlaguy]

8. These numbers really suck.

Unfortunately, RCP recognizes Emerson as being legitimate.
So, they will be averaged in to the other polls bringing Hillarys numbers down on RCP.

Bad word, bad word, and more bad words.
How is she not killing him in every frigging poll.

[Blue Idaho]

9. 538 gives Emerson a +1.3 avg. republican bias score. nt.

[Yavin4]

10. Probably a high percentage of rotary phones in that sample as well

[titaniumsalute]

12. AKA...they polled old people with landlines

Well we actually have a landline only to use in case we need to speak to one of our kids who has killed their cell battery. But we never answer the phone if it rings because nobody has the number. My household would be 100% off limits in Emerson's survey. That is a 41 year old voting male, a 37 year old voting female, and a first time 18 year old voting male. We are all voting for Hillary.

Pew Research, in January 2015, released data showing some of the cell-only household demos. Young adults (18-34), Hispanics, Renters, and the poor are much more likely to be a cell-phone only household. Of course we all know that these groups tend to vote more democratic.

If you see a poll with cell-only methodology, it is not reliable at all.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/01/07/pew-research-will-call-more-cellphones-in-2015/

[Demsrule86]

13. I don't know anyone who has a landline these days. nt