Moderate Voters Are Okay with Clinton...and Absolutely Loathe Trump (Internals for PPP poll).

[riversedge]

Kevin
?@KevinDarryl

Moderate Voters Are Okay with Clinton...and Absolutely Loathe Trump


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/8/30/1565233/-Moderate-Voters-Are-Okay-with-Clinton-and-Absolutely-Loathe-Trump


Moderate Voters Are Okay with Clinton...and Absolutely Loathe Trump
By Scan
Tuesday Aug 30, 2016 · 2:39 PM CST



We keep hearing over and over again how "historically unpopular" both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are, but this extremely simple analysis doesn't come close to explaining what's actually going on.

Simply put, Clinton may be underwater but Trump is practically sitting at the bottom of the lake with the catfish. And if we look at poll internals, we can see why this will doom him in November.

PPP's new national poll tells the similar story of a steady 5-point lead for Clinton with low favorability numbers for both candidates. But check out the Clinton favorability breakdown by ideology on page 19:



?1472585703

Overall, Clinton is 11 points underwater in favorability. Her numbers with the liberal base are okay (maybe the debates will improve them) and she actually has a slight edge with moderates. The vast majority of her negatives come from conservatives, though the 17% favorable among somewhat conservative voters could be worse.

Now let's look at Trump:




?1472585747

Overall, Trump is 27 points underwater in favorability. He's hated equally among very and somewhat liberal voters alike, which isn't a shock at all. Somewhat conservative voters only give him a moderate thumbs-up, which isn't too surprising. What is striking, though, is the abysmal result among moderates, where he's dead in the water by an incredible margin of -44!


....................

[anamandujano]

1. I like this thread.

[karynnj]

2. This is good news, but there is something they could ask that would be helpful

It would be great to have a cross tab with one factor being - all possible values of how both are viewed - ie Clinton favorable/Trump favorable ... Clinton not sure/Trump not sure. (There are 6 combinations) versus how they intend to vote. This would be fascinating as it would tell how unfavorable "unfavorable" really is. As in these charts, there should be a 'base' column. That would make it very easy to see how these favorable/unfavorable translate to vote.

I suspect that a Trump unfavorable might be a more damning "no way can I vote for him" than the Clinton unfavorables in the moderate - very liberal categories. Just speculation, but it would make a fascinating analysis --- and you know they had to ask the question on voting.

[riversedge]

12. Pollsters could just stop asking the fav/unfav question and the media could

stop harping on it day after day.

[karynnj]

13. There is no problem with them asking it or anything

It would be more insightful, if they tied it to the question on voting. It has long been clear that both have extraordinarily high negatives. But, the primary season is over and they are the real choices.

It does mean that saying neither will get a honeymoon is an understatement.

However, by tying this to voting, I hope we could see that the INTENSITY of Trump's unfavorable is completely different than Hillary's. Every day more life long Republicans say they can not vote for him - even in some cases, saying they will vote for Clinton, because of how unacceptable he is. There are some Democrats not happy with Clinyon, but it is far from this.

So, if they poll this and obviously poll their vote choice, putting the cross tabs together would be useful and you can not get the full answer without the detailed data.

[Demsrule86]

14. The media knows the truth

Trump will not win...they ask the question about favorability in order manipulate the election into a horse race for ratings...and I don't give a damn about 'likeability' either. I despise Trump because he would destroy the country.

[karynnj]

18. That question was standard going back decades

You can go to pollingreport.com and find it for at least the last 4 races - as long as they have archived polling results.

It is a sensible question to ask. In prior races the nominees were not underwater. Here, imagine Clinton had a profile that looked like any previous nominee. Then the fact thst Trump is seen unfavorably by something like 68 percent of the entire population would be devastating for Republicans.

The reason they continue to poll it is 1: ir's standard and 2: as things get closer expect the Democrats to shift to favor when given that binary choice. Even in primary season when I was pollef, I said I had favorable opinions for all Democrats. So, as I posted here, in house so to speak, of problems I had with Clinton, I was not going to add to her negatives. I suspect as the election nears, more Democrats, who might have strongly preferred a different nominee, will shift in her favor.

[CanonRay]

3. How in hell can someone be "very liberal"

and have a favorable opinion of Trump? This defies the imagination

[pnwmom]

4. There are actually some Bernie voters that have moved to Trump. It must be Hillary hate

in their cases. He hates her too and they like that.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/07/bernie-sanders-rally-hillary-clinton-trump-video-philadelphia

"I'll even vote for Trump before I vote for her. I’m so anti-Hillary."

[Demsrule86]

15. Some of them post here too.

[eppur_se_muova]

10. At least 12% of the respondents to this poll do not understand the terms being used. nt

[Stallion]

5. Yeah Its Kind of Like that Stupid Rasmussen President Dis-approval Measurement

that actually just measures the intensity of the negativity of a minority of the population. It usually finds Obama at -10 when he is over 50% in approval rating. Its ridiculous. Elections are won in the middle. The Center holds

[SaschaHM]

6. This poll illustrates why I don't take the harping on Hillary Clinton's unfavorables seriously.

They're never going to go up because you have a sect of conservative voters that will believe every piece of red meat that is thrown at them. I'd wear a 95% unfavorable rating from very conservative voters with a badge of honor. I honestly wonder if there is a white man that they hate just as much (I doubt it.)

[Wounded Bear]

7. Her husband would be that close second place, I think...

[Jamaal510]

8. And not just that,

but TV and online media continuously pound the rock when it comes to all these manufactured scandals. She did nothing illegal, but they still have to have a juicy story about her. Every time they bring up her high unfavorable numbers, I can't help but shout at the TV. Her unfavorable numbers are high because of what other people say about her, and gullible people believing those things. They're high because the media frequently takes her comments out of context (such as the "super predators" and the "what difference does it make?" comments). The major networks do more harm than good in terms of informing the public.

[Demsrule86]

16. And despite that, she is still ahead and will beat the orange menace. nt

[Cosmocat]

17. That is a BINGO

spot on what has occurred my entire life, more and more consistently and blatantly over time over the last quarter century.

1) Republicans lose their shit over complete nonsense.
2) Media gleefully forwards whatever they are losing their shit over regardless of how factless or completely absurd it is.
3) The media VALIDATES the bullshit by not even trying to call it for what it is - bullshit.
4) The simple minded twits in this country can't bother to take even the first moment to SMELL in order to sense the bullshit, they just distractedly come away from it thinking Hillary/whatever democrat did something and all government sucks!

[Liberal_in_LA]

9. "Trump is practically sitting at the bottom of the lake with the catfish"

[eppur_se_muova]

11. Well, they are bottom feeders, so he's among his kind. nt

[riversedge]

19. REC.

[Scurrilous]

20. K & R

[uponit7771]

21. So wait... If she has 80% dem approval and most moderates how in...

...the hell are Trump's and Clintons favorable ratings low?


Somethings not right