I told you Emerson is junk (Clinton ahead in NC by 4% in YouGov/CBS)

[molova]

I recently noted that Emerson is a crappy outlier-producing machine.
Today a respectable pollster has Clinton ahead in NC by 4%. Emerson found Trump ahead here by 2%
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-north-carolina-pennsylvania-email-questions-linger/

Do not forget to dismiss Emerson every time it releases a poll anywhere. Thanks.

[writes3000]

1. Thanks for sharing, molova!

[vadermike]

2. And

Hillary is ahead in Pa big time yougov as well No matter what the GOP throws out there she's fighting !!! GOP has a sad lol this makes me feel good GOTV

[tritsofme]

3. I don't know much about Emerson. But I am automatically skeptical of YouGov internet polls.

It'll be interesting to see how they perform this cycle.

[Cicada]

4. Bloomberg said Emerson most accurate in primaries but their general election method is stupid

For the general election they weight for 2012 v toe, party ID, sex and gender. But we know from prior polls that more say the voted for the winner than actually did. So the Obama voters in their sample include some who in fact did not vote for Obama. Thus the real Obama voters are underemployed. Also party ID is not a fixed trait. If you support Hillary you might be a FORMER republican. So if more favor Hillary there will be too few "democrats." And they don't weight for race. Maybe minorities are less likely to respond. So we have concerns over their method.

[progressoid]

5. 538 gives them a "B" rating

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

They skew slightly to the right.

[oasis]

6. No worries, Hill's got this.