Huge poll coming out at 7am (WaPo polled all 50 states)

[molova]

Finally a prestigious non-tracking, non-sucky pollster will release a poll, and boy is it a big one.
All 50 states have been poll, and it will not be one of those useless Reuters-type, of 150-respondent surveys that we've seen lately, according to the Washington Post's senior editor:

https://twitter.com/stevenjay/status/773094571572076544

[Funtatlaguy]

1. Don't like this tweet talking about surprises.

I really hope they are good surprises.....like some more red states that look purple.
Guess I've got to wait an hour.

[molova]

2. surprises could be from both sides

That's what I was thinking. If the surprises are about Arizona, GA, SC, etc. then it is favorable to Clinton.
On the other hand, if the surprises are PA, Nevada or say, New Hampshire, it is good for Trump.

[chillfactor]

3. LOL!

"good" and "t-rump" in the same sentence?

[BlueStateLib]

4. now i'm nervous

[LenaBaby61]

16. Now I'm nervous

I was too....

Until I looked deeper into the CRAPPY internals of that newly released CNN poll, which has polling sample errors you see right off the top.

[Funtatlaguy]

5. I hate posting bad news.

New Cnn/Orc national poll.
Trump 45
Clinton 43

This country sucks sometimes.

[Matthew28]

6. How is this even possible?

The American people must like being insulted and crapped on by this idiot.

What group makes it even possible for a tie?

What I got from earlier polls is

The educated are all going to vote clinton by 30-40 points.
18-30 group voting clinton by huge percentage
Hispanics voting clinton by over 65% over trump

Every other group based on other polls shows clinton a head by a lot when things are broken down.

[Funtatlaguy]

7. Click the article for internals

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

[7worldtrade]

10. Clinton up by 3 among registered voters in same poll

It's the difference between registered and likely voters. Among registered voters Clinton is leading by 3 in the CNN poll.

[helpisontheway]

11. Do you know what the numbers were for that poll

last time? Wondering how many points she dropped...

[Zynx]

12. I doubt the numbers actually changed that much.

It can entirely be due to sampling error.

[LenaBaby61]

14. Wish she was up ....

With likely voters.

But then again, the CNN poll seems to REALLY be flawed to begin with in terms of under-sampling Democrats, and that's just one thing of MANY things which makes this poll REALLY flawed

[Funtatlaguy]

8. Better News from Nbc

New Survey Monkey
Clinton 48
Trump 42

[Matthew28]

9. Looks like the nbc poll remained the same for a 4 way race

but it appears that they messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

[oberliner]

13. Not thrilled that Trump is winning Ohio

That would be really disappointing.

[Zynx]

15. I think polling is broken. If she is tied in TX, she's winning OH.

[uponit7771]

17. I think its safe to put CNN polling into outlier

[HockeyMom]

18. How many Republicans will jump ship

and vote Libertarian? My daughter's MIL, white College Educated Republican Woman, despises Trump. She constantly says she will vote 3rd Party over that "disgusting poor excuse for a man".

I think even my Republican husband (born in Queens near where Trump grew up) will also because he changes the channel whenever he sees Trump on TV.

I think a lot depends on Republicans putting their votes where their mouths are.

[a kennedy]

19. I'm worried about the closet voters.....won't say tRump out loud, but behind that curtain......