Trump up by 2% in new CNN poll

[molova]

The mainstream media is on the verge of handing us another disaster a la George W. Bush as the currupt, dangerous and dumb Donald Trump leads Hillary by 2% in a new CNN poll.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

The Press should not attempt to wash its hands once our economy collapses and Muslim anger toward the hateful Trump results in increase, bigger and bolder terrorist attacks against America.

Update: I just read in the WaPo-poll thread that a new NBC/SurveyMonkey poll contradicts CNN. Hillary up 6% so I feel better now:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-holds-steady-against-trump-campaign-enters-final-weeks-poll-n642931

[Matthew28]

1. They messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent

[LenaBaby61]

6. They messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent.

I'm not exactly dancing in the street STILL, although looking at the numbers they used to poll each particular political party, this poll is skewed to say the least without me even looking deeper to any internals such as when this poll was taken etc.

[woolldog]

15. Ahhhh if only there were a way to unskew the polls...nt

[NewJeffCT]

34. So, they're basically saying that Democratic turnout

will be down 11% from the last two elections?

[chillfactor]

2. a CNN poll...

enough said..

[Democat]

3. It's a shame Clinton didn't put Trump away when he was down

We can and should still win, but Democrats are just not great at fighting as hard and dirty as Republicans.

[helpisontheway]

4. I'm not even sure she win now

The Republicans came home to Trump (expected) but he also winning independents again. All she has to do is give one dodgy answer (regarding those damn email or the foundation) during the debates and it is a wrap...President Trump...seriously sick over this...I hope the candidate that leads after Labor Day has not always won. Hoping for better news with the state polls..

[gto]

24. LOL

".I hope the candidate that leads after Labor Day has not always won."

So you don't want Hillary to win?
You do know that Hillary is winning, right?

One poll that says otherwise in a sea of dozens that show she's up, from state polls to national polls,, doesn't mean she's losing.

[Sugarcoated]

26. Are you concerned dude?

That's serious, woah

[LenaBaby61]

5. Trump up by 2% in new CNN poll.

Usually not one to panic, nor one to look at polling until mid-September or so (Usually choosing to follow EC polling), this poll is way past an eye-opener to say the LEAST. It's disturbing--even with me not checking out the internals of the poll

Let me get this straight:

tRump went over to Mexico and embarrassed himself, lied while there, got the president of Mexico saying that he is not going to build tRumps wall, and then in the same evening gave a racist Hitler-Lite speech, has Nazis, racist, sexual predators, people more than likely doing shady dealings with Russian Oligarchs, wife beaters and flat out liars in and around his camp--let alone he's a first class LIAR, and he's tied with Hillary? I know Hillary has been fund-raising and hasn't been in the spot light too much lately, and I know the so-called Liberal Media has been pushing the alleged email scandal, and CGI situation as an alleged scandal meanwhile at the same time not even paying any attention to all of the hideous scandals tRump has in and around his camp, and he's allegedly caught/tied Hillary? AND none of what he's done has been positive in the LEAST. I'd like to know the internals of this poll (It's late now, and I'm going to bed on this note), and when it was conducted. What's troubling is IF this poll was conducted post tRump's Mexico/Hitler-lite speech, and after new and more troubling lies/scandals associated with tRump and camp came to the surface. My goodness, because IF this poll was conducted post-Mexico/Hitler Lite speech plus all of the odious things happening in and around camp tRump, then I am more than a bit alarmed about the upcoming debates, because if the media can spin a tale of woe concerning all of those non-scandals concerning Hillary and the public believes them, then there is absolutely no doubt the Liberal Media can spin horrible debate performances by tRump into looking like Oscar-winning performances during all 3 debates since the media has set the bar so LOW for him. I can imagine many or some in the press saying that Hillary came off as shrill, and as a know-it-all--reward tRumps utter mediocrity.

Again, it's no time to panic, and I want to know the details/internals of this particular poll and when it was taken, but at the very least we have to take this poll by CNN seriously.

[Sugarcoated]

27. Are you a bit concerned?

I am concerned about that

[grubbs]

7. Yea

Breathless reporting on this one on morning joe today.

[BlueStateLib]

8. Voting enthusiasm

[democrattotheend]

23. The enthusiasm gap scares me

And I am not sure what we can do about it. The one consolation is that hopefully the closer polls will keep Democrats from getting complacent. But if they are not excited to vote for Hillary they are not going to turn out in the same numbers they did for Obama.

[liberal N proud]

9. Is America this STUPID?

[LenaBaby61]

11. Is America this STUPID?

It appears so, because this poll seems to have been conducted Sept. 1- Sept 4th which was after his embarrassing trip to Mexico and after his Hitler-Lite speech.

Again though, I don't care for the skewed numbers they used when conducting this poll however.

[Cosmocat]

13. Yes

we are ...

[Still In Wisconsin]

20. See Reagan, Ronald and Bush, George W... should be all the data you need to answer your question.

In a word, yes.

[LenaBaby61]

10. To be honest though OP...

I'm not too fond of on line or paid for polls like SurveyMonkey either, even though it's at this moment in time showing Hillary up by 6%.

Goodness, it's bad enough we have to deal with the right-leaning Emerson poll which cut Hillary's lead in HALF over tRump when blended in with more even-handed polling--and I believe I read that the Ipsos poll only polled in very small groups in the 3-digit range, additionally, I think those Ipsos polls were conducted WEEKS ago and only on land lines to boot which also helped to cut Hillary's numbers in half vs tRump, but NOW to have to deal with this "skewed" poll put out their by CNN which gives tRump the lead over Hillary with all the lying, bad and racist things that have been going on in his camp, how can I go to sleep

[mvd]

12. Just look at the internals. Putting R +4 voting advantage..

is nonsense. It's like this was manipulated to get the result they wanted. Shame on CNN. Not scared yet, though Trump should never be close.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. Well, it reminds me of watching your favorite team take a huge lead

at the beginning of a game - and the rest of the game, you are just holding your breath, hoping they don't lose it.

I know, Robby Mook, is a DU darling...but his/her strategy of playing defense with the email deal was and is totally wrong in my opinion.

Get MAD instead of just remaining silent and meek. There are so many arguments that could be used. I heard one of the best on NPR, a veteran IT Exec. He said that the mistake people are making with the whole deal is that they are applying what they know now to a time from the past. In the past, 2009-2010 most people just trusted their IT gurus to give them what they needed to do their job.

Point to anyone who asks the question - "would YOU release your personal emails for the world to see? Would Trump? No, no one would."

[mvd]

32. It's a good question, and while it was still a big mistake to do what she did, I..

think she has been sitting on her lead. With Trump, you need constant offense. He's out working Hillary right now, even though he is making a clown of himself as always. Any poll with Trump leading really is disturbing to me, even though as a Bernie person I am just not enthusiastic about our choice. I also don't like some of her moves since being nominated. What I am enthusiastic about is keeping Trump out - he's flat out dangerous.

[pnwmom]

21. They didn't set out to give the R's an advantage -- their sample just happened to end up

with more people who identified as R than D.

But if there are actually fewer R's than D's among people who vote -- which we have every reason to think -- then this poll's sample won't do a good job reflecting real voters preferences.

[mvd]

30. If they get a bad sample, I feel they should adjust

Nothing can be put past the media, which wants a horse race and hasn't really been liberal in a long time. Just how I feel.

[pnwmom]

35. There is no reliable way to adjust, because party affiliation is not a fixed attribute.

But this is why it's important to look at an aggregate of polls, not just one that could be an outlier.

[mvd]

38. This poll has consistently been off. You CAN change..

your methods. What I am saying is they aren't helpless. You don't even have to release a poll if you think the sample you got was bad.

[pnwmom]

40. No, there is no scientifically defensible way to weight a sample by party,

since party affiliation can change.

And it isn't up to ORC to decide a sample is bad. It's just up to them to use proper sampling methods and design a non-biased survey.

The statistical probability is that there is a 95% chance that the actual results would be inside the stated margin of error. But that means that 5% of the time the results are outside of the margin of error. It isn't up to the polling company to toss any results that the polling company thinks are wrong. It's up to anyone considering the results to realize that a single poll could be an outlier -- one of the 5%.

[mvd]

41. They can manipluate it to get any result they want.

Sorry, but I just can't agree here. My opinion is they wanted this sample and they want a horse race. And of course potential party turnout should be a factor in what they decide. Models like that have been out forever.

[pnwmom]

42. ORC is a traditional, non-partisan research firm, and they conducted this survey

for CNN, not the Republicans.

538's ratings of pollsters gives them an A-.

[mvd]

43. They have had a R lean overall

And I do not trust CNN. Not even MSNBC so much now. Let's just end it on this: whatever we believe, I hope it really is an outlier! I am sure we can agree there.

[Lochloosa]

14. A little dose of reality. National Polls don't mean a thing. It's all about the Electoral Collage.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. wouldn't it be a nice payback if trump won the popular vote and not the election? nt

[pnwmom]

36. Not really. He would lead his followers in a tremendous uproar. nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

44. Ya, except for the bad part :)

[book_worm]

16. frankly a news organization can get whatever result they want--this poll over counts Republicans

Really only 28% of respondents are Dems while 32% are Republicans?

[mfcorey1]

19. Did Lewandoski do the poll?

[democrattotheend]

22. That's among likely voters. Clinton still (barely) leads among registered voters

This is the first poll of the season in which they have used the likely voter screen. That said, the margin among registered voters has tightened by a bunch. I don't think national polls by themselves are all that indicative of who is going to win, but they are useful for showing trends since they tend to be closer to real time than state polls, which are conducted less frequently and often over a longer number of days. I never take solace in hearing "but the state polls still look good" when the national polls drop, because the state polls almost always follow.

[Adrahil]

25. Don't Panic, and bring your towel....

The ORC poll has been all over the place. They showed Trump up by 3 before the Dem convention and Clinton up by 9 after. They are having a tough time getting a good sample, I think.

[Avalux]

28. It's bullshit of course, but setting the narrative is everything unfortunately.

Just by putting the headline out there, people believe it and CNN knows this.

They want a horse race, they want the drama, they want the ratings. They don't care that they're doing immeasurable damage to this country by purposefully reporting biased poll results and legitimizing Drumpf's extremism.

[vadermike]

29. Ugh

If that's the enthusiasm gap we are fucked and showing trump leading economy terror Holy shit hello president trump my god terrifying I'm not sure what we can do at this point It's 2000 all over again just like gore The media wants trump to be president May God help us

[jalan48]

31. I think Hillary will win by double digits.

A close election means more advertising sales.

[vadermike]

33. And

This is before the debates Geez If the media assists trump during the debates he could widen the lead And then they keep bashing her Ugh media is so corrupt

[MohRokTah]

37. CNN is looking to grab the Fox viewers as Fox implodes.

They'll lose almost all of their viewers to TrumpTV after the election because of this stupid assed move.

[woolldog]

39. OMG, we're screwed.

[True Dough]

45. How can 45% of poll respondents

seriously say Trump is better suited to handle the duties and responsibilities of commander in chief?

How? HOW???