Democrats’ Hopes For Senate Majority Hang By A Slim Thread
Steven Rosenfeld
The Democrats ability to appoint and confirm the next U.S. Supreme Court majority, which will shape the courts values for years, is hanging by a thread and will be determined by U.S. Senate races in a half-dozen presidential swing states.
These are the same states that play outsized roles in the presidential race, but the latest polls and analyses suggest that Democrats, at best, may retake the Senate by one seat or possibly a 50-50 tie. That stalemate that would have to be broken by the vice president, who also serves as Senate president, and would cast tie-breaking votes. If Donald Trump were elected and Democrats dont win that one-seat majority, the Supreme Court could turn to the far right.
That edgy scenario is the latest takeaway from seasoned pollsters who look for repetitive patterns in surveys and who dont have a partisan record. They say the GOPs current 54-46 majority is heading back toward Democratsbut by the slimmest of margins.
The summary is this, writes the team at the University of Virginias Center for Politics. With more than two months to go, two GOP seats are severely endangered (Illinois and Wisconsin). Just below that duo, Democrats are now slightly favored in traditionally red Indiana while Republican incumbents in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are struggling to overcome likely Clinton victories in their states. Republican incumbents are ahead in Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina, but upsets cannot be ruled out.
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