Nate Silver weighs in on the CNN poll specifically. Trumpers are not happy with him

[Godhumor]

First Tweet:

Most bad polling analysis stems from people's desire to take the most recent/most hyped poll as the gospel truth, instead of averaging data.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/773134722033737728


Second Tweet:

Also, it's much better if pollsters are willing to publish "outliers" (or results that defy conventional wisdom) than to self-censor them.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/773137318806978560


Trumpies in his comments are annoyed he is refusing to acknowledge the greatness that is this poll.

And his second Tweet is exactly correct. I posted quite a bit during the primaries why polling companies have to release known outliers rather than sit on then. As annoying as it may be, CNN followed proper form here.

[writes3000]

1. And even in this new CNN poll, Clinton is ahead in registered voters.

But they are putting on a filter for enthusiam which depresses Clinton's turnout.

And that is AFTER they polled more Republicans than Dems.

[LonePirate]

4. I wonder how pollsters are gauging the likelihood of Trump supporters actually voting.

I am not convinced his supporters will flock to the polls in the numbers Trump, Repubs and pollsters think.

[FBaggins]

6. I'm less worried about their enthusiasm...

... and more worried about how many of them are out there who are unwilling to admit that they're voting for him.

[SCliberal91294]

2. Even if they..

Had same number of R and D voters Clinton wouls be ahead. It shouls be D with 32%

[Loki Liesmith]

3. Don't unskew, though.

The poll average unskews for you.


People just can't deal with the fact that they have to average polls.

[uponit7771]

5. The fact that there's such a swing between LV and RV is a big tell tale the LV in cnn poll is skewed

[NewJeffCT]

8. CNN does this a lot

back in 2012, most people agreed that Biden handily defeated Ryan in their debate. However, CNN polled 8% more Republicans than Democrats (48% to 40%, I think) and then declared it a draw. Meanwhile, in the reality of both 2008 and 2012, Democratic turnout beat Republicans by 7%. So, their poll created a 15 point difference from reality.

[uponit7771]

9. wow... thats crazy...yeap...its click bait polling

[Demsrule86]

7. The media wants ratings.

A contested race is what they want...polling data is manipulated to achieve this.

[SaschaHM]

10. I remember reading that their white voter turnout for Likely voters was 75%.