Clinton Leads Trump 321-195 in Morning Consult's 50-State Poll

[misterhighwasted]

http://www.hillaryhq.com/2016/09/clinton-leads-trump-321-195-in-morning.html?m=1



SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2016
Clinton Leads Trump 321-195 in Morning Consult's 50-State Poll


Morning Consult released a massive 50-state poll with some encouraging and interesting results this week:
Hillary Clinton would top Donald Trump 321-195 in electoral votes to clinch the White House if the election were held today, according to an extensive Morning Consult analysis of registered voters.

But the 2016 presidential race is far from over. The leading candidate is within the margin of error in nine states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. When those states are removed from the count, the former secretary of State garners 258 electoral votes to the New York businessman’s 164.

The analysis is the third time Morning Consult has provided a complete look at the electoral college map. Voter sentiment has shifted in a number of key states since our last survey, which was released just before the political conventions.
Our analysis also provides a snapshot into how Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein would affect the Electoral College count for Clinton and Trump.

The Democratic nominee sports small gains over Trump in Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The Republican standard bearer leads narrowly in Arizona, New Mexico and North Carolina.

Georgia and Iowa remain pure toss-ups, with both candidates deadlocked at 40 percent.
Being up 321-195 is certainly great, but there are some weird results going on here:

Trump is winning New Mexico? The state went for Obama in a landslide twice and is not considered a swing state. I'm not buying it.
Clinton is doing better in Ohio than Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania? Not sure about that either.
Georgia is totally tied while Trump leads in North Carolina? Hmm.

On a slightly positive note, they have Trump ahead in Texas by only 6...matching a recent PPP poll and again suggesting that it's within reach if Donald collapses a bit more.

Bottom line: the polls vary and sometimes don't make a lot of sense, but Hillary Clinton remains in a much stronger electoral position than Donald Trump in the homestretch.

[GoDawgs]

1. It's a pitched battle here in Ga.

Would be nice to add another congressperson too.

[pnwmom]

2. Which is amazing!

[triron]

3. No way

Trump ahead in New Mexico. Mostly hispanics in this state. Lot of Native Americans as well (who I believe would favor clinton)

[asiliveandbreathe]

5. 538 has NM w/Clinton by +6.8 - overall when all polls added together

Just an fyi for you...morning consult should be added soon at 538 - it's okay...we be fine...just can't let our guard down...

[asiliveandbreathe]

4. I am always checking 538 - but didn't see morning consult

in their updates..so I went hunting for clarity - mind you - love the electoral numbers..so - here is what I found..

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-a-50-state-poll-as-good-as-50-state-polls/

The explanation from Nate is thorough, as only Nate can be - this is a .....snip.....


FiveThirtyEight has been using the state-by-state results from SurveyMonkey and Ipsos in its forecasts, and we’re in the midst of incorporating the data from Morning Consult and Google.

So, Morning Consult should be added soon to the 538 updates...just sayin'

[misterhighwasted]

6. Yaa!

[kimbutgar]

7. Visiting my 85 year old mother in law in Arizona she is appalled by Cheeto and doesn't understand

Why people support him. Her two right winger grandsons are Cheeto supporters. One who served in the military and got out on a military disability supports Cheeto because he wants to privatize the veterans adminstratation. I told his mother tonight that privatize means profitize and he'll get screwed even more. She looked at me and said, " I never thought of that". I told her to tell him so. He will be even more screwed under Cheeto. Sadly they don't want to see their San Francisco liberal uncle and aunt because we make them uncomfortable in their beliefs.